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Timefigure review: Royal Ascot 2019

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Timeform's R&D team reflect on how the big winners from Royal Ascot fared on the clock.

Day 1

Despite being hit by persistent and heavy rainfall ahead of the meeting, the ground for the opening races on the first day of Royal Ascot was surprisingly fast, and the first two times were quicker than the respective renewals 12 months earlier, which were held on good to firm ground. The traditional curtain-raiser, the Queen Anne, looked very competitive on paper, and saw Lord Glitters produce the best winning timefigure (121) since Frankel was triumphant in 2012 - though the race reaffirmed the view that the older miling division currently lacks a standout candidate. Indeed, quantity over quality looked the order of the day in the Coventry, too, and Arizona's timefigure of 104 - the slowest since 2011 - rather confirmed pre-race impressions. In the King's Stand Stakes, neither Blue Point (120) nor Battaash (115) were quite able to replicate the levels they'd shown when filling the same positions 12 months earlier, though it's worth noting that the race wasn't ridden at the same breakneck gallop this time around. The rain started to fall in earnest before the final Group 1 of the afternoon, the St James's Palace Stakes, and like the Queen Anne, it produced a bunched finish, and the timefigure of the winner Circus Maximus (118) suggests he is perhaps shy of the top-class bracket. The card was concluded with the listed Wolferton Stakes, which attracted a Group-class field, and was won in convincing fashion by Addeybb - whose timefigure of 119 suggests he could be able to win a weaker Group 1 contest later in the season. 

Day 2

The rain was still falling as the Queen Mary kicked off Day 2, and bizarrely one of the runners refused to race in the opening contest of the card for the second day running - though the standard for that race was up-to-scratch, with Raffle Prize recording a timefigure of 103. The following two races on the round course, the Queen's Vase and the Prince of Wales's Stakes, were difficult to assess due to deteriorating conditions weather wise, and as such the timefigures of the respective winners, Dashing Willoughby (106) and Crystal Ocean (118) were on the defensive side. The action reverted to the straight track for the rest of the afternoon and figures of 107 for Move Swiftly in the Duke Of Cambridge and 114 for Afaak in the Royal Hunt Cup weren’t far removed from their form ratings, while the winning timefigure of 91 for the concluding Windsor Castle Stakes suggsted it was an ordinary renewal. 

Day 3

Mercifully, conditions were much brighter for the third day of the Royal meeting, and the action began with the Norfolk Stakes, which was won by A'Ali. Much was made of the fact that he was a maiden going into the race, though he boasted the best form courtesy of his effort to finish second in an above-average race on debut at Ripon, and he provided Frankie Dettori with the first of his four winners on the afternoon without recording a notably fast time on the clock (timefigure just 92). Indeed, none of Dettori's four winners produced outstanding timefigures, which reflects on his unrivaled ability to be in the right place when turning for home on the round course, and neither Sangarius nor Stradivarius broke the 100 barrier with their timefigures, while Star Catcher recorded a relatively modest figure of 103 in the Ribblesdale Stakes. The final two races on the card were soundly run, with potential Group performer Biometric getting up late in the Britannia in a timefigure of 104 to deny Dettori a five-timer, and South Pacific posting a 107 when leading home a 1-2-3 for Aidan O’Brien in the concluding King George V Handicap. The latter race saw runner-up Constantinople post a highly impressive 118 in defeat under top weight, too, a performance which might well have slipped under the radar. By Galileo, he has boundless stamina in his pedigree and is sure to be a much better horse in the second half of the season. Other than his stable-mate Japan the following afternoon, no horse in our opinion has run a better St Leger trial all season. 

Day 4

There were two standout performances on the fourth day of the Royal meeting, with the weather staying fine, in the form of Japan in the King Edward VII Stakes and Advertise in the Commonwealth Cup. Japan’s timefigure of 121 was the best recorded by a three-year-old so far this season (before Advertise trumped him 35 minutes later), and makes his likely omission from this weekend’s Irish Derby even more regrettable. His four-and-a-half length winning margin was the biggest since Nathaniel in 2011 and he could  turn out to be the best three-year-old middle-distance colt around. A combination of first-time blinkers and the drop back to six furlongs saw Advertise post a career-best timefigure of 122 in the Commonwealth Cup, in which the short-priced favourite Ten Sovereigns seemed beaten on merit. By contrast, the opening race on the card, the Albany Stakes, was a modestly-run affair over the same trip. Daahyeh (who had beaten the Queen Mary winner Raffle Prize on her debut) only managed 89 on the clock, but she’s clearly a very smart youngster. The other story of the day was Thanks Be’s win in the Sandringham, which ended a long drought for female riders at the meeting, with Hayley Turner coming out on top. Like Daahyeh’s, however, the winning timefigure (88) was unexceptional.

DAY 5

The final day undoubtedly belonged to the now-retired Blue Point, who became the first horse since Choisir in 2003 to complete the King’s Stand and Diamond Jubilee double. With underfoot conditions fast and Kachy blazing the trail as usual, the race was well-run and for a long way Blue Point looked sure to win much more easily than he did. His timefigure was a slightly underwhelming 116 and only marginally better than the figure Cape Byron achieved in the Wokingham thirty-five minutes later. Meanwhile, Defoe's winning timefigure of 111 in the Hardwicke Stakes was slightly below what he had managed in the Coronation Cup at Epsom on his previous start, and he still has a fair bit of improving to do if he is to get the better of the 2018 Hardwicke winner Crystal Ocean in the forthcoming King George. In the Jersey Stakes, the hitherto disappointing Space Traveller got back on track under a change of tactics, winning in a timefigure of 115, while Pinatubo put up the best two-year-old performance of the week when lowering the colours of the highly-touted Lope Y Fernandez in a strong-looking renewal of the Chesham Stakes - with his winning timefigure (112) the joint-best in the race this century.


 

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All 6 ran.
FULL RESULT

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1st Paddy Bradley silk 2. SAIL ON SAILOR 9/43.25f
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3rd Luke Morris silk nk 7. FALLACIOUS PROMISE 3/14
T: Simon Dow  
10 ran. NRs: 5 
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2nd Nicola Burns silk 5 6. COSMIC FUNK (IRE) 12/113
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2nd Daniel Muscutt silk nk 1. ADRIAN (GER) 9/25.5
J: George Wood  
6 ran. NRs: 2  6 
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