Timefigure preview: Yorkshire Ebor Festival

Wednesday

The Juddmonte International is the focus of first day of the Ebor meeting, and sees a quartet of three-year-olds take on their elders, the latter group led by Poet’s Word. He has progressed with each start this season, his last two wins coming in Group 1 company at Ascot, in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes (137 adjusted timefigure) when beating Cracksman, and the King George VI (season-leading 139) from stablemate Crystal Ocean.

Roaring Lion just about leads the three-year-olds, having also improved with each run this season, last seen beating Saxon Warrior by a neck in the Coral-Eclipse (121). The score is now 2-2 between the pair, but Roaring Lion is probably the more solid proposition, his application no longer in question, especially over this trip which can accentuate his strengths. While Saxon Warrior bounced back to near his best in the Eclipse, he had previously been a touch disappointing when failing to pass Latrobe in a slowly-run Irish Derby (110).

Without Parole completes the quartet of younger horses, having blotted his copybook in the Sussex Stakes last time after clocking impressive timefigures on his previous three starts (130, 114, 125). He probably wasn’t suited by having to make the running in the Sussex under substitute jockey Andrea Atzeni, and regular pilot Frankie Dettori may let one of the other prominent runners, Thundering Snow, Latrobe or Benbatl, to make the running.

Frankel colt Without Parole (9-4f) just clings on to win the St James's Palace Stakes and takes his unbeaten record to four. #RoyalAscot

Results ➡️ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/8wJ0rXDlqR

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) 19 June 2018

Poet’s Word, with times to back up his improvement this season, looks a tough horse to beat, but Without Parole could be worth another chance at 14/1 given his impressive timefigures prior to the Sussex.

Charlie Appleby’s Cross Counter heads to the Great Voltigeur having produced a superb performance in the Gordon Stakes (138 adjusted timefigure), beating Derby second Dee Ex Bee by more than four lengths. Second favourite Kew Gardens was last seen handing a four length beating to Dee Ex Bee, but hasn’t quite recorded timefigures to the same level as Cross Counter. The horse with the second-best timefigure in the field is Wells Farrh Go, who recorded a timefigure of 125 when winning the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy last time. He has a bit to find on form, but shouldn’t be underestimated

The opening sprint on day one is as competitive as you’d expect from a York handicap, with just 9 lb separating the field on Timeform adjusted ratings, and eight horses rated 120. Harome, El Astronaute and Carlton Frankie are sure to set a scorching tempo, but it still usually pays to race prominently in sprints, especially at York. Eastern Impact should be well positioned early, and whilst he’s without a win in three years, he has slowly dropped to a mark that should see him competitive. He boasts the best adjusted timefigure (125) courtesy of his second behind subsequent Great St Wilfrid winner Gunmetal back in June.

Thursday

Ladies’ day opens with the Lowther, headed by the Ballydoyle filly Fairyland who has one of the better timefigure performances (114 adjusted) from her listed win at the Curragh. Angel’s Hideaway, fourth behind Main Edition in the Albany, produced her best performance (117) and timefigure (102) when winning the Princess Maragret Stakes at Ascot last time, and should play a big part in the finish.

Angel's Hideaway was a brilliant winner for John Gosden in the opening race of #KingGeorge day at #Ascot... pic.twitter.com/AESxdqpF89

— Ascot Racecourse (@Ascot) 28 July 2018

The Yorkshire Oaks won’t feature last year’s winner Enable, whose protracted reappearance is likely to be in the September Stakes at Kempton next month, however it does feature the Irish Oaks winner Sea of Class (117), who is still open to improvement. Coronet has the best timefigure (122) following her third in the King George behind Poet’s Word (season leading timefigure), while Eziyra (119) finished third behind Enable in the 2017 Irish Oaks. Following three wins, she now steps back up into Group 1 company, and it would be no surprise if she has more improvement to come.

In the Premier Yearling Stakes, it might be worth chancing Kevin Ryan’s Celebrity Dancer, last seen winning a small field novice race up at Ayr, which is the best timefigure performance (110) of those entered. In the following handicap, Firmament could be a copy and paste job from the Goodwood Timefigure preview. Winner of this race two years ago, he once again ran well and wasn’t beaten far when seventh in the Bunbury Cup last time, havinghad his progress stopped at a crucial time. He may find more fortune at York where there won’t be as many runners and the field won’t be as congested as it was at Goodwood. He’ll still need a bit of luck given his run style, but he is well clear on time.

Friday

The Nunthorpe is a King’s Stand rematch between Battaash and Blue Point. Battaash went off very hard, burning off nearly all of his rivals, including the incredibly fast Lady Aurelia, however he paid the price late and was passed by Blue Point who recorded a timefigure of 132. Since then, Battaash has again produced a Group 1 performance in a Group 2, using his high cruising speed to put his rivals to the sword in the King George Stakes at Goodwood. If he’s in the same form as last time then he’ll be very hard to beat, but it’s worth remembering that he boiled over in the preliminaries before this race 12 months ago.

The Gimcrack looks as competitive as ever. The Irish Rover heads the field and was last seen setting a slow gallop in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh before finishing third, behind Advertise and So Perfect. That represents some of the strongest form, by virtue of it being the first two-year-old Group 1, however the time (109) was nothing flashy. Similar comments apply to Shine So Bright (109), Space Traveller (109) and Legends Of War (103), though a lack of fast times can often be down to a lack of opportunity.

Cosmic Law (117), Chuck Willis (117), and Well Done Fox (116) lead the way in terms of time, but the most interesting could be Emaraaty Ana (115) who was last seen finishing third behind Chuck Willis and Natalie’s Joy at Newbury, on just his second start.

A commanding performance from Natalie's Joy and Frankie Dettori as they take the Listed Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury

Results ▶️ https://t.co/BDdH0VHTW9 pic.twitter.com/i0DolhcaO4

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) 20 July 2018

Natalie’s Joy had recorded one of the season’s fastest two-year-old times on debut before disappointing at Goodwood, but put that behind her at Newbury and the form is worth viewing positively. Emaraaty Ana was confidently ridden that day but a lack of experience told late on; he should have learnt plenty given the pace they went and has more to offer.

Saturday

Stratum, trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Tony Bloom, heads the Ebor betting following his emphatic win in the inaugrual running of the JLT Cup at Newbury. He was heavily backed and, in a soundly run race, recorded a decent time (119 adjusted timefigure) in beating a number of horses who will hope to reverse the form at York. Chief amongst them is the fifth Nakeeta (122), who won the Ebor, of course, 12 months ago, and the ninth Hochfeld (122), though he needs five horses to come out to get a run in Europe’s most valuable handicap.

A nice performance from the well-supported Stratum who justifies favouritism in the JLT Cup under Robert Winston for trainer Willie Mullins! pic.twitter.com/uRFSsINfea

— Newbury Racecourse (@NewburyRacing) July 21, 2018

Count Octave (123) would be a fascinating runner should he take his place, but he also has an entry in the Lonsdale Cup on Friday, where he’d face a stiffer task to beat Stradivarius. In truth, there is very little separating them all on time.

Following his win in the Jersey and his second in the Sussex Stakes, Expert Eye is the one to beat in the City of York Stakes, his impressive Jersey performance (122) backed up by the clock (128). Only Limato can boast a comparative timefigure (128) from his win at Newmarket at the end of last year, but he has disappointed in each of his three starts this season and needs the return to seven furlongs, possibly his optimum trip, to spark a revival.