Radio
Url copied to clipboard.
A recent Ratings Update Special by Adam Houghton sought to explain and introduce many approaches that we employ at Timeform in our efforts to establish the merits of a performance and the ability of each and every horse. It’s not always easy, after all, the objective in a race is to win, not to perform to the highest level possible.
One part of the process is the analysis of times, both final times and sectional times, which can prove to be invaluable data points when assessing those performances. They can be used to establish the pace of the race, was it slowly run or run at a sound gallop, which impacts margins at the end of the race from which ratings are estimated.
The importance of times is never more evident than when it comes to lightly-raced horses or two-year-olds, where we must make assessments based on limited data. So, in this timefigure preview, we’ll focus on the three two-year-old pattern races at Newmarket on Saturday, namely the Royal Lodge, the Cheveley Park and the Middle Park Stakes.
In recent years this has been won by the likes of Frankel and Roaring Lion, along with a few that haven’t quite gone on to better things at three.
Kameko, for Qatar Racing and Andrew Balding, will be hoping to follow in Roaring Lion’s footsteps, and he sets the clear standard this year on form and time (119 adjusted), courtesy of his narrow second in the Solario Stakes last time. He was beaten by the smallest of margins by Positive, who was previously seen handing out a beating to some solid rivals in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, only to find Pinatubo scorching the turf ahead of him.
That Solario form could be higher still in light of sectionals, where the front two earned upgrades on top of the good time, and a reproduction of that effort would mean his rivals need to improve.
Positive follows the likes of Kingman, Masar and Too Darn Hot with victory in the Group 3 Solario Stakes. And what a race! @Sandownpark pic.twitter.com/K3YZxIrzSz
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) August 31, 2019
Highland Chief is second favourite at the time of writing, following victory on debut he was well served by the step up in trip next time, showing improved form when third (114 timefigure) behind Pinatubo in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. The step up to a mile should suit, and he is open to further improvement. There is little to separate Highland Chief and Pyledriver on time, the latter who won a listed race at Haydock (113) last time, and while it’s hard to knock the improvement shown, that race probably isn’t one of the stronger listed races in the calendar, and he’ll need to improve again.
One horse who is potentially capable of such progress is Surf Dancer for William Haggas, having already achieved a useful level of form in his three starts to date. He’s yet to record a fast time, having contested races that have been steadily run, the latest of which disguised his superiority. The form of that race is held down by the proximity of the fourth, but Surf Dancer earned a significant upgrade (35 lb) on top of that steady time (79), suggesting he’s capable of even better.
The Cheveley Park revolves around the Mark Johnston-trained Raffle Prize, who broke her maiden at Chester in May, before going on to win the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, staying on strongly to lead in the final 50 yards. She had to carry a penalty on her next start in a cracking renewal of the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes on the July Course, which brought together several principals from the Queen Mary and the Albany, and she showed further progress to win well. The clock backed up what she achieved (124 timefigure), for all she benefitted from a fine Frankie Dettori ride.
🏆 Queen Mary Stakes
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) July 12, 2019
🏆 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes
Raffle Prize follows up Royal Ascot success and breaks the track record to boot for @Johnston_Racing and @FrankieDettori at @NewmarketRace #JulyFestival pic.twitter.com/LPVIWqL2sA
The next two on time are Millisle and Dark Lady, both achieving a timefigure of 119 on their previous start when they were separated by a short head at Salisbury, with the last-named edging ahead inside the final furlong. Both will need to improve if they’re to take a role in the finish, with Millisle likely to face competition for the lead from the likes of Raffle Prize and Nina Bailarina.
The rest have plenty to find on time, but Tropbeau is the unknown quantity, her form quite hard to weigh up. She’s won her last three starts, having improved each time, and she’s likely to improve further for Andre Fabre.
The Middle Park Stakes looks extremely competitive, with the three towards the top of the market, Mums Tipple, Siskin and Earthlight, all putting their unbeaten records on the line.
Earthlight is favourite at the time of writing. He overcame the rise in class two starts back in the Prix Cabourg, following that up with victory in the Prix Morny (on soft ground, from Raffle Prize), confirming himself as a most progressive colt. He has a most determined way of galloping, head down and neck out, and could prove hard to beat.
Of those horses whose performances we establish timefigures for, Mums Tipple heads the way, following his extraordinary effort when routing what should have been a competitive field by eleven lengths in a valuable sales event at York last time. That performance produced an exceptional time (133 adjusted), a two-year-old timefigure only bettered by the likes of Pinatubo, Lady Aurelia, Quorto, Anthony Van Dyck and U S Navy Flag in recent years.
Check out the sectional times for the races on the second day of the @Welcome2Yorks Ebor Festival @yorkracecourse, including Mums Tipple's demolition job 👀>>>https://t.co/opvz0WhPPo pic.twitter.com/rcJE5g9Bj4
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) August 23, 2019
Siskin makes up the last of the unbeaten trio, Ger Lyons swerving the National Stakes and Pinatubo in favour of the Middle Park. Four from four, he has been seen in small-field races at the Curragh the last three times, the latest start in the Phoenix Stakes, confirming superiority over Monarch Of Egypt. These small fields have resulted in slow times (highest timefigure of 109), and with a pace forecast of even, he may get similar set up again, but he’ll likely have hardier rivals to get past.
There’s plenty to like about Threat, a stablemate of Mums Tipple who has put up consistently smart performances. Following a couple of narrow defeats in the Coventry Stakes (116 timefigure) and Richmond Stakes, he landed the Gimcrack on his next start, winning decisively, before going on to win the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last time. He has plenty of pace and remains capable of better.
.jpg&w=300)
.png&w=300)
