Timefigure preview: Royal Ascot Tuesday

The Queen Anne is nearly always one of the highlights of the Royal meeting but the pair at or near the head of the market for the latest renewal and who have the best timefigures – Lockinge first and second Rhododendron (118) and Lightning Spear (121) – look substandard in historical terms. Timeform don’t return timefigures from France as yet but the French have a fair record in the Queen Anne and Recoletos has been very impressive in his two wins this season, not least in the Prix d’Ispahan at ParisLongchamp last time. Recoletos usually has a pacemaker but with fifteen declared is unlikely to need one.  

The re-invigorated Kachy has posted the best timefigures (124 and 123) by any horse so far this year and shouldn’t be overlooked for the King’s Stand with Ascot’s sand-based turf track likely to suit him better than Haydock last time, where he was just edged out by Battaash and Washington DC in the Temple. All the same, champion sprinter Battaash (130) and Lady Aurelia (126) both ran faster last year and deservedly dominate the market. Lady Aurelia was rather underwhelming in her comeback run, though, and the big occasion has twice been the downfall of Battaash including at this meeting two years ago.

The Coventry Stakes looks a cracking renewal with Sergei Prokofiev looking to continue the excellent record of his sire Scat Daddy in two-year-old races at the Royal meeting. He’s unbeaten so far and recorded the best timefigure by any juvenile this season – 106 – in a minor event at Navan without being extended. Cosmic Law (by Scat Daddy’s son No Nay Never) has to be respected after running away with the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom in a timefigure of 103 but arguably the most interesting runner is Calyx who provided his sire Kingman with his first winner when winning a maiden at Newmarket earlier this month.

His timefigure was just 89, but a sectional upgrade of 24 lb suggests he’s far better than that and the last two horses to win maidens first time out as juveniles on the July Course by at five lengths with at least six lengths back to the third were Kingman and fellow top-class miler Farhh. Blown By Wind also has a timefigure of 103 (and a course win) to his name but his sire Invincible Spirit is still looking for his first Royal Ascot two-year-winner after thirty-one attempts.

A winning debut for Calyx, son of Kingman, for John Gosden
and Robert Havlin pic.twitter.com/hpuAz3KupT

— Newmarket Racecourse (@NewmarketRace) June 9, 2018

The leading timefigure (121) achieved so far by any three-year-old this season is the lowest for several years and, along with their performance ratings, would appear to suggest they are not an exceptional bunch. One of the two horses with a 121 - Romanised - runs in the St James’s Palace. His late surge to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas win was achieved on the back of a strong gallop set by last year’s Dewhurst winner U S Navy Flag and whether things will play out quite so well on the more front-runner friendly Ascot round mile is open to question. U S Navy Flag’s Curragh second demonstrated a timely return to form for last season’s champion juvenile and on sectionals (127) and timefigures (121, from last year) just about sets the standard for all his draw could have been better.

The unbeaten Without Parole recorded a rare 117 timefigure second time out over the straight mile at Yarmouth but was less impressive at Sandown last time on easier ground. By Frankel, he could easily be the best in this field but whether he deserves to be favourite is another matter; 2000 Guineas runner-up Tip Two Win clearly improved at Newmarket but despite splitting Saxon Warrior and Masar ran only to a figure of 109.

Recommendation:

Back U S Navy Flag in the St James’s Palace Stakes at 7-1