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Timefigure preview: Royal Ascot Day 5

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Timeform's R&D team take a look at the racing on Day 5 of Royal Ascot and pick out their two best bets.

There is no let up for punters on the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot; over a hundred runners (excluding reserves) have been declared, including Black Corton, a name more familiar to Cheltenham Festival racegoers who has been declared for the meeting finale, the Queen Alexandra.

The card opens with the Chesham Stakes, in which Pinatubo is well clear on the clock on the back of his win in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom, though we are still reluctant to put him forward as a selection. Buratino followed up his Epsom success in the Coventry in 2015, but he is the exception rather than the rule so far as Woodcote winners going onto success at Ascot are concerned, and though Pinatubo is bred to be more at home over this longer trip, forecast favourite Lope Y Fernandez looked arguably the most exciting youngster seen this season when winning on his debut at the Curragh.

 

The progressive Space Blues heads the market for the Jersey Stakes and is one of several with similar time-based claims. An ability to see out the trip thoroughly has been an overriding requisite given conditions at the meeting so far and Space Blues ticks that box, too, for all that he looks a real seven-furlong specialist. Drying conditions ahead of the race will also be in his favour, but that’s still not enough to put him forward, either.

So Perfect has marginally better claims on the clock and was very impressive when dropped back to six furlongs last time, but slight doubts about her stamina (she has only run at seven furlongs once, when third in the Fred Darling) are enough to persuade us to leave this race alone.         

With Lah Ti Dar not having been at her best so far this season (despite a reappearance win) and Defoe not quite as good on the clock as a paper appraisal of his Coronation Cup win last-time-out would seem to suggest, Masar is our idea of the Hardwicke winner if he is as good now as he was when winning the Derby over a year ago. That’s quite a big ‘if’, however, seeing as he hasn’t run since, and though he is reportedly in good order, there will be no hiding place over Ascot’s round track on ground likely to be softer than he has encountered before.

16 years have elapsed since the Australian-trained Choisir won both the King’s Stand and the Diamond Jubilee (or Golden Jubilee as it was known then) in the same year. The weakening appetite amongst Southern Hemisphere-based trainers to target the meeting has contributed to no runner contesting both races since 2011, but the record of those who have tried and failed illustrates just how hard it is. Fellow Australian Takeover Target came closest in 2006, finishing third in the Jubilee after winning the King’s Stand, though Cape Of Good Hope (in 2004) and Star Witness (in 2011) managed to hit the first three in both races.

History, then, it would seem is against Tuesday’s King’s Stand winner Blue Point, but his credentials on the clock are clearly outstanding. The son of Shamardal is only the second horse this century (after the five-furlong specialist Sole Power) to win the King’s Stand in successive years, while he has won four of his five races at Ascot and is capable of equally good form at six furlongs. And, seeing that no horse in the line-up can match his form at five furlongs or (with the exception of all-weather specialist Kachy) has run a timefigure within 6 lb of his 129, odds of 5-2 don’t look at all bad.

As usual, the Wokingham is fiercely competitive, but an official rating of 102 seriously underestimates a top-form Danzeno. It could be argued that he never quite hit the heights some of his early displays promised, but he looked revitalized on his return from a 10-month absence at Nottingham, and it looks potentially significant that his handicap mark has been protected for this.

His two best timefigures – 122 and 118 – have both been recorded in large fields on easy ground over this C&D and the booking of Frankie Dettori, who was on board for one of those efforts, is the icing on the cake. In truth, Danzeno probably isn’t quite capable of reproducing those peak C&D figures anymore, but he won’t need to from his current mark, and with absolutely ideal conditions, his prospects are second to none.

Recommendations:

Back Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Back Danzeno in the Wokingham Stakes

  
  

 

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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

20:30 DUNDALK

1st Reese Holohan silk 12. LADY LANDHORT (IRE) 33/134
2nd Wesley Joyce silk ½ 3. JAZZY DANCER (IRE) 5/23.5f
3rd J. J. G. Ryan silk ½ 2. JAZZIT 7/24.5
J: Reese Holohan (7)  
12 ran. NRs: 1 
FULL RESULT

20:20 SOUTHWELL

1st Elle-May Croot silk 4. LEDNIKOV 18/119
2nd Aiden Brookes silk 7. RING FENCED 10/111
3rd Ryan Kavanagh silk 5. ZOOKS (FR) 11/26.5
J: Elle-May Croot (3)  
T: Ivan Furtado  
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

20:10 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Daniel Muscutt silk 1. PEARLY SQUIRREL (IRE) 9/25.5
2nd Robert Havlin silk 8. JUST KING HIGH (IRE) 9/110
3rd Jack Doughty silk 1 6. FISTRAL BEACH (IRE) 7/24.5
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT

20:00 DUNDALK

1st M. P. Sheehy silk 1. FLANKER JET 15/28.5
2nd D. W. O'Connor silk ns 2. IPANEMA QUEEN (IRE) 4/71.57f
J: M. P. Sheehy  
All 5 ran.
FULL RESULT

19:50 SOUTHWELL

1st Ryan Kavanagh silk 2. FORGLEN 13/82.62f
2nd William Pyle silk ½ 7. NYMPHAEA 11/112
3rd Shay Farmer silk 1 9. APACHE EAGLE 18/119
8 ran. NRs: 1  8 
FULL RESULT

19:40 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st James Sullivan silk 4. HABRDI (IRE) 15/28.5
2nd Paddy Bradley silk 7. SIMPLY BLUE 5/16
T: Ruth Carr  
6 ran. NRs: 1  8 
FULL RESULT

19:30 DUNDALK

1st Reese Holohan silk 7. BRAVE APPROACH (IRE) 33/134
2nd C. T. Keane silk ¾ 4. KC BEAR (IRE) 1/12f
3rd J. Pietropaolo silk ½ 9. RAMAIR (IRE) 50/151
J: Reese Holohan (7)  
8 ran. NRs: 3 
FULL RESULT

19:20 SOUTHWELL

1st S. B. Kirrane silk 1. MARRY THE NIGHT 7/24.5
2nd Paul Mulrennan silk ½ 9. JAMAICAN STORM 9/25.5
3rd Oisin James Orr silk ½ 5. ASIAN JOURNEY (IRE) 9/43.25f
T: Tim Easterby  
9 ran. NRs: 10  11  6 
FULL RESULT

19:10 WOLVERHAMPTON

1st Hollie Doyle silk 2. BOMB SQUAD (IRE) 11/82.37f
2nd Rossa Ryan silk nk 6. DAYMAN (GER) 7/24.5
3rd Greg Fairley silk hd 4. RAMON DI LORIA (IRE) 9/110
J: Hollie Doyle  
T: John Mackie  
All 8 ran.
FULL RESULT
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