Timefigure preview: Royal Ascot Day 4

‘Aidan’s Day’ is what the fourth day of Royal Ascot might prophetically be dubbed, as the card features three very short-priced Ballydoyle horses who will no doubt form the foundation of many a combination bet. Japan, Ten Sovereigns and Hermosa are the clear form and timefigure picks in the King Edward VII Stakes, Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes, respectively, and a win treble at the current odds pays around 8-1. Of those three, Hermosa at the widely available 11-10 makes the most appeal.

In the search for a bigger-priced selection, however, we are left with three races, amongst which the 28-runner Sandringham makes least appeal. Not because of the field size itself, but because the horse whose form is most strongly backed up by the clock, Maamora, is a habitual front-runner and there are plenty of other types in opposition.

That’s not to say front-running tactics can’t be pulled off over the straight mile – Maamora’s stable companion Ostilio won the Britannia last year from the front – but Ostilio ended up being good enough to win a Group 2 at Longchamp on Arc weekend, and there is a slight doubt as to whether Maamora is the same calibre. Second best on time Star of War is interesting despite being out of the handicap, as there is plenty of depth to her form and a strongly-run straight mile seems sure to bring about improvement, but it’s hard to know how her draw (stall 2) will pan out.

As usual, the Duke Of Edinburgh has attracted a very large field, but finding the winner of this older-horse handicap is often not quite so demanding as it might seem at first glance. Despite the race being over a mile and a half, it has regularly been one of the strongest draw-bias races of the week – only twice since 2009 has a horse drawn in single figures finished in the first two, and one of those – the 2018 runner-up Sir Chauvelin – was drawn in stall 8.

Fortunately, the horse whose chances are second to none from a timefigure perspective, Lucius Tiberius, is well berthed in 20. He has something of an odd profile for a Godolphin four-year-old, having been bought out of Aidan O’Brien’s stable for 320,000 guineas last autumn, but his three starts for his current yard have already seen him show a higher level of form, and it was interesting that Charlie Appleby started him off this year in a Group 2 in France.

Lucius Tiberius finished down the field in the King George V Handicap last year, when asked to come from well back, but his latest second at York behind UAE Prince over an extended mile and a quarter suggested strongly another try at this trip is what he needs now. The timefigure he posted at York (108) was only 2lb shy of the race-leading 110 he posted when staying on strongly to win a good Leopardstown handicap last year. Rider Brett Doyle is no stranger to success over a mile and a half at Royal Ascot and, at the available odds, he makes plenty of each-way appeal with four places on offer.

UAE Prince does enough and wins the Matchbook "Best Value" Exchange Handicap! pic.twitter.com/xpT8QtgwqH

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 17, 2019

Wesley Ward’s record with his two-year-olds over six furlongs at the Royal meeting – one top-three finish from 11 runners since 2009 at the time of writing – is in stark contrast to the seven wins he has recorded at the minimum trip, and that seems reason enough to swerve his two runners in the Albany, Nayibeth and Chili Petin, despite their lofty positions in the market.

JM Jackson has strictly the best claims on time, having finished second in the National Stakes at Sandown, but the horse who appeals most is Roger Varian’s Daahyeh, who recorded a timefigure only 1lb inferior on her sole career start to date, when winning impressively and earning a 3 lb upgrade to boot. Not only that, but the horse who chased her home that day, Raffle Prize, has won both her races since, including the Queen Mary on Wednesday. Varian landed the Albany in 2014 with another once-raced winner in Cursory Glance, and Daahyeh has already shown a much higher level of form than she had.

Recommendations:

Back Daahyeh in the Albany Stakes

Back Lucius Tiberius each-way in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes