Timefigure Preview: Grand National Festival

Every cloud has a silver lining, as the saying goes and, while the defection of the JLT Novices’ Chase winner Defi du Seuil has robbed the opening Manifesto Novices’ Chase of some interest, it has also opened the door for the star mare La Bague Au Roi to reroute from the Mildmay Chase on Friday.

La Bague Au Roi is unbeaten over fences and is sure to start a short-priced favourite in a race in which short-priced horses have a very good record. However, for all she has beaten the likes of RSA Novices’ Chase winner Topofthegame and runner-up Santini, as well as landing a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, La Bague Au Roi’s claims on time are not so convincing. All of her wins over fences have come in tactical affairs and while this race might yet be run to bring her turn of foot into play, she is up against a number of promising novices with strong form at shorter trips.

Chief among those are Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov. Both remain unexposed over fences after non-completions early in the Arkle, and though either would have been very hard pressed to have got the better of the impressive Duc des Genievres, both had good place claims beforehand. This longer trip should suit both better than the two-mile Arkle and career-best timefigures of 155 for Kalashnikov and 148 for Glen Forsa illustrate what La Bague Au Roi (139 best) is up against. Preference is for the highly-progressive Glen Forsa who beat Kalashnikov at Sandown prior to unseating at the fifth at Cheltenham. Had he run as well as we were expecting him to run in the Arkle, he would be a fair bit shorter than the 7-2 generally available here. 

#RTVMomentOfTheDay: The relentless Glen Forsa breaks Kalashnikov in a sparkling Kingmaker display and now looks a huge Cheltenham contender.

Watch all today's action from @Sandownpark and @DundalkStadium for free in our results and replay section ➡ https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/FmtuFi9yqo

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 15, 2019

That 155 timefigure for Kalashnikov was achieved in the 2018 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, and Summerville Boy, the horse that beat him that day (as he had done in the Tolworth Hurdle the previous time the pair met), is belatedly back in action in the Aintree Hurdle. His season has been a washout so far, but he was found to have been carrying an injury and has been given four months off to recover. Backing him has risks attached, of course, but he comes here a fresh horse with his stable in rude health and it’s not as if there are not doubts about most of the opposition either.

Melon, Brain Power, Supasundae and Verdana Blue all underperformed or had a hard race at Cheltenham and two of those are yet to prove themselves at the trip.  The distance is an unknown for Summerville Boy, too, but he has always looked a very strong stayer at two miles and he should get the strongly-run race he needs with Faugheen in the line-up. The 2017 winner Buveur d’Air deserves to be favourite, but take him out and it’s a very open race, so the 11-1 available for Summerville Boy in the market without Buveur d'Air looks worth chancing in the circumstances. 

The clash between the two highest rated chasers in training, Altior and Cyrname, which had been mooted for the JLT Melling Chase on Friday looks as if it will now take place at Sandown later this month. One of the reasons for Cyrname skipping Friday's race may be because his trainer Paul Nicholls has a very able substitute in Politologue, who beat Min in this race in 2018. Politologue comes into the race in better form this time around having pushed Altior very close in the Champion Chase (when well ahead of Min) last time, but whether he is the right favourite is questionable.

Those who have been waiting patiently for Waiting Patiently’s next racecourse appearance might be surprised to see Ruth Jefferson’s stable star a bigger price than Politologue, despite having finished in front of him when second to Cyrname at Ascot. There isn’t much between them on time – Waiting Patiently’s best timefigure is 166 compared to Politologue’s 164 – but Cheltenham was never on Waiting Patiently’s radar and he will have been primed for this.      

#RTVMomentOfTheDay We had some good contenders but nothing to match Cyrname's remarkable 17-length Ascot Chase win

Watch all the action from five courses today for free in our results and replay section ➡https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/ucR5ecQ6Fu

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 16, 2019

Nicky Henderson won the Sefton Novices' Hurdle last year with Santini and he looks set to win it again for the third time since 2014 with the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle runner-up Champ. He won’t have things all his own way with the Martin Pipe runner-up Dallas des Pictons (who will be suited by the return to three miles) and the highly-progressive Emitom in opposition, but Champ’s 148 timefigure is the best in the field by some way and being by King’s Theatre, out of a half-sister to the triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate and the high-class long-distance chaser Cornish Rebel, he isn’t going to fail for stamina. The widely-available 11-4 looks very generous.     

Anyone who draws Tiger Roll in a Grand National sweepstake will be entitled to feel a sense of great satisfaction as the 2018 winner is already as short as 7-2 and promises to start even shorter still. He would surely have been thereabouts in the Cheltenham Gold Cup had he run in that race and a 9 lb higher mark in this year's Grand National might not stop him, as he is clearly better than ever. One horse who did run in the Gold Cup (and also comes here at the top of his game) is Anibale Fly, whose strong-staying performance to finish second earned him a 169 form rating and a timefigure of 167.

Much was made of Anibale Fly racing wide when fourth behind Tiger Roll last year, but his chances of making the frame again must be very good - and might just be even better if his trainer reaches for cheekpieces for the first time. There will doubtless be several firms offering extended each-way terms on Saturday morning and he warrants backing to bring home place money at least.  

ICYMI: Tiger Roll is set to bid for his second successive Randox Health Grand National next month, trainer Gordon Elliott has confirmed.https://t.co/jVi3Pb7YRb pic.twitter.com/EOlfRSTgqz

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 20, 2019

Recommended bets:

Back Glen Forsa in Thursday's Manifesto Novices’ Chase at 7/2

Back Summerville Boy (without Buveur d’Air) in Thursday's Aintree Hurdle at 11/1

Back Waiting Patiently in Friday's Melling Chase at 5/2

Back Champ in Friday's Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at 11/4

Back Anibale Fly each-way in Saturday's Grand National at 14/1