Timefigure Preview: Festival Trials Day

Triumph Hurdle Trial (Finesse)

The opening race is the Triumph Hurdle Trial, which has been won by Apple’s Shakira (fourth in the 2018 Triumph), Defi Du Seuil (w inner in 2017) and Peace And Co (winner in 2015). This year lacks the ante-post favourite, Sir Erec, but from a timefigure perspective the leading juvenile is in attendance in the shape of Torpillo.

Unbeaten in three starts, winning twice at Sandown for Nigel Twiston-Davies, the first win is perhaps tough to weigh up given conditions (handling them better than most). The time was good (149 adjusted) and compared favourably with the closing handicap, however, such timefigures in extreme conditions can be skewed by others failing to handle those conditions adequately. Nevertheless, his most recent win also produced a strong time performance (140) and is still in the top 10 for juvenile hurdlers this season.

The Gordon Elliott-trained Surin is next best on time, 141 adjusted courtesy of her win last time out at Fairyhouse, a 5 lb pull in the weights enabling her to reverse placings with Garden’s Of Babylon. Next in are Nelson River (139) for Tony Carroll and Fakir D’Oudaires (139) for Joseph O’Brien (who also trains Sir Erec).

Timeform Novices’ Chase

The Timeform Novices’ Chase is up next, a race won by Mister Whitaker in 2018 before going on to win the Close House Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival proper. Since 2000, thirteen horses (from 180 runners) have contested the race before going on to win at the Festival, either in the same year or later, including Un Temps Pour Tout winning at the 2016 and 2017 Festivals, respectively, following finishing fourth in this race in 2016.

Un Temps Pour Tout’s performance in the Timeform Novices’ Chase was perfectly summarised by Timeform’s reporter, who noted: ‘ridden as if further education was required and spared a hard race… it’d be wrong to suggest we’ve seen the best of him yet as a chaser’. Similar comments will apply to many going into Saturday’s race, and perhaps even more so coming out of it.

Glen Forsa, who represents the same connections as Mister Whitaker, is the favourite in the betting at the time of writing, following a couple of impressive wins since starting out over fences. His win at Kempton last time – a race which Mister Whitaker finished second last year – is a race that is working out well, with Glen Rocco (second) and Dell Oro (fourth) both winning since, with the time (149 adjusted) confirming that the form is worth viewing strongly.

It's 2/2 for Glen Forsa who puts in a nice staying performance to land the prize at #Kempton...pic.twitter.com/bCwJ2OKKoC

— BetVictor Racing (@BetVictorRacing) December 26, 2018

A couple of those with better credentials on time, Dentley De Mee (157) and War Sound (155), have some questions to answer. The former hasn’t progressed since debut and would perhaps benefit from a more experienced rider in the saddle, while War Sound has had more runs than most of his rivals over fences, and has been put up 10 lb following his win at Aintree on his seasonal reappearance.

Brelan d’As is making a much better fist of chasing this season, putting up three solid performances, winning his most recent start, his second at Newbury returning a decent timefigure (154) for all he was well held by his unexposed stable companion. His attitude has been questioned at times but he dug deep to win on his latest start at Haydock.

Horses towards the top of the market understandably have similar profiles to Glen Forsa. Didero Vallis has improved on each of his chase starts since moving to Venetia Williams, his best timefigure coming last time at Haydock (132), while Azzerti won a decent Handicap at Ascot last time (148), having run well in a good novice event previously. His Ascot win came in a field of unexposed chasers and it was his jumping that sealed the win.

Cotswold Chase

The Cotswold Chase is set to feature a small field, with little to separate all of the entries on adjusted ratings and timefigures. Frodon is the current favourite, following a couple of good wins this season after a breathing operation in the summer. He got a very positive ride on his most recent start, winning at Cheltenham with a nigh-on perfect round of jumping to secure a ninth win from 21 starts. One of his best performances from a performance and time perspective came at this meeting last year, when winning by 17 lengths (173 adjusted timefigure) in the graded handicap chase.

Terrefort hasn’t had as much racing as Frodon, and still remains capable of better even if he disappointed on his return at Sandown (reportedly suffered an injury). He finished last season with two very good efforts, but the concession of 7 lb to Shattered Love in the JLT proved too much. However, he went on to win the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree in good style and in a decent time (173), coping well with the step up in trip to three miles.

Elegant Escape has had a similar campaign to Frodon, having returned following a breathing operation in the summer, and is two from three. His most recent win coming in the Welsh National (174), following in the footsteps of stablemate Native River, and this may be a stepping stone on route to the Gold Cup.

There should be no hiding place come the end of the race, with Frodon often keen to get on with things from the front and Elegant Escape a strong stayer. We will certainly know more about their Festival credentials after, and if any of them harbour legitimate Gold Cup credentials in an increasingly open-looking year.

Elegant Escape wins the Coral Welsh Grand National at @Chepstow_Racing! pic.twitter.com/e6bIHsDrzH

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 27, 2018

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

A race which has often proved very informative for the Festival, not least last year with the first (Santini) and second (Black Op) going on to run very well (albeit in defeat) in their respective races. A point that’s frequently made when dealing with lightly-raced horses is that it’s more often than not about the opportunity to record a good time, than not having the ability to do so. This is the case with the current favourite for this race, Birchdale.

Birchdale made a winning debut at Warwick for Nicky Henderson, justifying strong market support, in a race which often goes to a smart prospect – Kylmore Lough, Born Survivor and Willoughby Court all having won the race in recent years. A steady gallop meant the timefigure (96) was never going to be special, and his superiority over his rivals was hidden to some extent, but he still put good distance between himself and the rest.

Those with more performances in the book include stablemate Champ, who heads the field on timefigures (143), his best time performance coming at Newbury in early-December. He took the step up in grade comfortably enough last time, winning the Challow Novices’ Hurdle back at Newbury, despite not settling fully, and leaving the impression that he may have an even bigger performance in the locker given a stronger pace to aim at.

Nestor Park has recorded a better timefigure than most in of his rivals (138), when winning a maiden at Warwick, but has since been found short when finishing seventh of seven behind Champ in the Challow. Emitom for Warren Greatrex has done nothing wrong, but it was his hurdling debut that produced the better timefigure (129), the form of which is working out well and he didn’t need to improve to win his next start.