Timefigure Preview: Derby & Oaks

Oaks

With the Irish 1000 Guineas falling just five days before Friday's Investec Oaks at Epsom, we’ve been deprived of seeing the leading three-year-old filly – Hermosa – take her chance.

She showed improved form at Newmarket (113 timefigure) when making all in the 1000 Guineas, but it was her performance (120) at the Curragh that marked out her class, up there with previous fillies to do the English-Irish 1000 Guineas double. Making all once again, setting a good gallop – often a prerequisite for a good timefigure, but not often the case with horses that make all – and storming clear in the final furlong to record a 119 timefigure (1 lb sectional upgrade).

Hermosa is almost certain to improve once again when stepping up in trip – a sister to the very smart winner up to 1½m The United States and the very smart winner up to 1½m Hydrangea – and had there been an extra week between the Curragh and Epsom it might have been different – as it was with Minding in 2016 – but as it stands the Oaks is all the poorer without her.

Since the turn of the century, the lowest winning performance ratings was recorded by Snow Fairy (113 in 2010), in contrast to Sariska and Enable, both of whom achieved a figure of 125, in 2009 and 2017, respectively. The other winners ran to ratings between 115 and 122 (timefigures between 107 and 120), the large majority showing improved form on the day, something every runner in the 2019 field will need to do to reach that level.

At the head of the market is Mehdaayih, who needed supplementing following her win in the Cheshire Oaks. She’s improving all the time, and her win at Chester was run in a good time (99 timefigure) – a race-leading timefigure of those with performances over distances similar to the mile and a half they’ll face at Epsom. The pace was on the steady side, so it was impressive the way Mehdaayih put distance between herself and her rivals, highlighted by a 7 lb sectional upgrade on top of the good time.

“Her sectionals were uber impressive… I’m confident that she’s a really good filly” - @joshapiafi effusive in his praise for Cheshire Oaks heroine Mehdaayih #RacingDebate pic.twitter.com/iXbuo3v4MS

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 12, 2019

Pink Dogwood didn’t need to improve when making a winning return in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan – she was the ante-post favourite for the Oaks at the time due to connections and pedigree as much as achievement – recording a very modest, but still her best, timefigure in the process (67). That's on a par with Dancing Rain's all-the-way win in 2011, but generally much slower than Oaks-winning timefigures, which are usually within 10 lb of the performance rating.

Haggas has a couple of runners this year, Maqsad and Frankellina. The former was last seen on 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket when winning the Pretty Polly Stakes in impressive fashion (86 timefigure), while Frankellina represents the Musidora form. That York race fell some way short of recent renewals, a steady gallop leading to a heaped finish, but she returned a good timefigure (95), which is better than most of her rivals to date.

Further down the betting is Tarnawa, who was third behind Pink Dogwood at Navan before winning the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas where she barely had to improve. That piece of form is probably worth treating with a little caution, but the timefigure was sound enough (93) despite there only being a fair pace.

Derby

The Investec Derby contenders are perhaps a little easier to weigh up than the fillies, with fewer uncertainties around improvement. However, the market has changed markedly over recent months, looking more open, the top of which is dominated by three from Ballydoyle, namely Sir Dragonet, Broome and Anthony Van Dyck; all three sired by different Ballydoyle Derby winners.

Connections of Sir Dragonet and Telecaster each paid £85,000 yesterday to run in the #InvestecDerby at Epsom on Saturday. Andy Stephens reports on a gamble that can pay spectacular dividends >>> . https://t.co/1SSeqJf7ni pic.twitter.com/hg2wKQGegE

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 28, 2019

Sir Dragonet burst onto the scene following a maiden success at Tipperary in April, and a commanding win in the Chester Vase just two weeks later in which he returned a very good timefigure (117). He stayed on strongly that day, beating rivals who had all shown useful form, though probably all failed to handle conditions to some degree or other. His performance there warrants his position towards at the head of the market, however his progress has possibly even surprised connections given he lacked a Derby entry.

That can’t be said of Broome, who put a very smart performance up after six months off to win the Ballysax Stakes in April. Held up in a strongly-run race, he was advantaged by how things developed, but drew right away in the final furlong, recording a race-leading timefigure (120) as he crossed the line. He didn’t need to improve in the Derrinstown last time, producing a more workmanlike performance, but he’s sure to improve for the step up to 1½m and holds the strongest claims.

Anthony Van Dyck had a busy two-year-old campaign, and returned to win the Lingfield Derby Trial (98 timefigure) last time. That race is rarely the strongest of trials, but he travelled strongly and handled the undulations well. While his stablemates boast stronger credentials, his experience should stand him in excellent stead, and he remains unexposed at middle distances (looked better the further he went at Lingfield).

A recurring theme at Epsom this year has been the large number of leading contenders requiring supplementing, which also goes for Hughie Morrison’s Telecaster. He finished second to Bangkok on debut at Doncaster in March, and his progress since has been almost as rapid as Sir Dragonet, looking something out of the ordinary when going one better at Windsor.

The £85,000 #InvestecDerby gamblers. @StevoGG looks at how supplementary entries have fared in the #InvestecDerby after Sir Dragonet and Telecaster were added to Saturday's line-up today ⬇https://t.co/1SSeqJf7ni pic.twitter.com/ZYzAREB22b

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 27, 2019

Next up was York and the Dante where he was meeting last season’s top two-year-old - and long-time ante-post Derby favourite - Too Darn Hot. It's a race that took some unpicking, given the field were strung out early as Telecaster and Turgenev went clear. Too Darn Hot did well to reel the leader in, but the effort came at some cost, and ultimately it was Telecaster who finished stronger, winning in a decent time (113).

Recommended bets:

Mehdaayih at 5/2 in the Oaks on Friday

Tarnawa at 25/1 in the Oaks on Friday

Broome at 9/2 in the Derby on Saturday