Timefigure preview: Coral-Eclipse

The 2018 Coral-Eclipse is an intriguing race, with Masar, Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion meeting each other for the third time this season following clashes in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Derby at Epsom.

Unfortunately, the Eclipse lacks a top-class older horse to truly test them, with Cracksman and Enable absent for one reason or another. 2016 Eclipse winner Hawkbill and Cliffs of Moher are two of the three older horses lining up, but each has little chance of winning on this season’s form, with the improving four-year-old Forest Ranger considered more of a danger.

As a result, it makes sense to focus on the trio who dominate both Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and the betting, and to re-trace their steps through this season, starting with a look at where they stood before the 2000 Guineas, moving on to the Derby, and finally where we stand now.

Saxon Warrior followed the same path of recent Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas winners Churchill, Gleneagles, Camelot, and non-winners Air Force Blue and Australia, by heading straight to the Guineas. Saxon Warrior’s best performance prior to Newmarket came in last season’s Racing Post Trophy, where his apparent stamina (and character) helped him defeat Roaring Lion, who had hit the front following a dazzling turn of foot, only to be overhauled late on.

Roaring Lion’s next performance came in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket, where he was sent off at 13/8-on against Masar, who had been to France, America, and Dubai between his Solario Stakes win and the Craven. Masar dictated from the front under William Buick, setting steady fractions which contributed to a timefigure of just 96, eventually running out a very impressive winner. While the timefigure was just modest, the closing three furlongs, which were run in 34.10 sec, was anything but, and worthy of a 26 lb sectional upgrade.

In terms of Timeform master ratings, ahead of the 2000 Guineas, Masar was top-rated on 123, 3 lb clear of both Saxon Warrior (120p) and Roaring Lion (120).

2000 Guineas

The Guineas saw Saxon Warrior score decisively, a performance which augured well for the summer ahead and appeared to confirm the impression that he could develop into a top-class colt over middle distances. The steady pace set by Murillo could have increased the likelihood of a hard luck story, but there was no doubt the best horse won on the day. Saxon Warrior ran to 124 in winning the Guineas, and a timefigure of 112, with a 5 lb sectional upgrade given the lack of early speed.

Saxon Warrior shows he still has the gears for a mile as the Racing Post Trophy winner makes it Guineas No.9 for Aidan O’Brien.

Japanese sire Deep Impact on the #2000Guineas roll of honour! pic.twitter.com/k3yjt8bkqk

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) May 5, 2018

Masar was third, things not quite going as smoothly as they had for him in the Craven, racing away from the main group until late on, and just not quite running up to the same level as he had six weeks earlier. Roaring Lion was further back in fifth, having made his challenge up the rail, but showing more application than he had in the Craven.

Between the Guineas and the Derby, only Roaring Lion went on to run in a recognised Derby trial, winning the Dante Stakes in emphatic fashion. He wasn’t ideally placed in a slowly-run race, but showed the same speed as seen in the Racing Post Trophy to quicken clear and pull right away from the front-running Mildenberger. The final three furlongs was run in 33.95 seconds, warranting a 17 lb upgrade on a 94 timefigure. Roaring Lion was showing gradual improvement run to run, while also looking more professional at York than he had previously.

Ahead of the Derby, the unbeaten Saxon Warrior was top-rated on 126p, while the master ratings of Masar (123) and Roaring Lion (120) were unchanged.

Derby

Saxon Warrior went off at 5/4-on in the Derby, but could only finish fourth (114 timefigure). Drawn in stall one, he lost a few lengths at the start, but travelled strongly in midfield alongside the eventual winner Masar. There was a small bump by Dee Ex Bee on entering the straight, after which he struggled to regain his balance and handle the Epsom camber, with Ryan Moore sympathetic over the last furlong. At the time, the feeling was that he may still prove best of all.

Masar wins The Derby!

A career-defining moment for William Buick, Charlie Appleby & @godolphin as the New Approach colt becomes their first Derby winner.#DerbyDay #TheSupremeTest pic.twitter.com/9TrzA2ldSi

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) June 2, 2018

Masar travelled powerfully in midfield, proved well suited by the demands of the race, and was very strong at the finish, winning by a length and a half and returning a timefigure of 121. Roaring Lion (118 timefigure) finished third, coping well with a very different test to that which he faced in the Dante, again looking more professional and only edged out of second by Dee Ex Bee late on.

Between the Derby and the Eclipse, only Saxon Warrior has been seen on a racecourse, running in the Irish Derby, but again failed to match his Guineas effort. The Irish Derby was slowly run and he was very well placed to take advantage; while he had a few excuses in the Derby, there were no obvious ones in the Irish equivalent.

Eclipse

Masar is top on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings heading into the third meeting of this trio, rated 125, with both Saxon Warrior (124) and Roaring Lion (122) having little to find. Masar has done very little wrong in his three UK starts to date, and will surely be hard to beat, but there isn’t much to separate the top three, each of whom recorded their career-best timefigure – or joint career-best in Saxon Warrior’s case - at Epsom.

Saxon Warrior, having looked set for an exciting summer after the Guineas, is in danger of not even being considered the best of his generation and has more questions to answer than most 2000 Guineas winners do at this stage of the season, running just seven days after his Irish Derby disappointment.

Roaring Lion is yet to beat Masar and has only beaten Saxon Warrior once (both from three attempts), but there is good reason to think that he could get his optimum conditions in the Eclipse. He has gradually improved start on start this season, and has become more straightforward and professional with each run, especially his last two starts.

Of the rest, Happily finished third in two Guineas, an achievement that feels a little like an underachievement for a filly that beat Olmedo and Masar in last year’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Coming up short in classics isn’t any sort of bar to progress, though, stablemate Hydragea a prime example of a filly that progressed later in the summer, and it would be no surprise to see a good run from a consistent filly who thrived on her racing as a two year-old.