Timefigure Guineas Preview: Ir-resistable bet on Sunday

It might seem rather incongruous to mention the 2000 Guineas and the Arkle in the same sentence, but the ante-post market for Saturday’s race is reminiscent of what happened at Cheltenham. Then, a horse went to the head of the market following his first attempt at the discipline, before getting shuffled well down the pecking order, only to find himself back on top of the pile the day before the race without having advanced his own claims in the meantime as defections tore the race apart.

That horse, of course, was Lalor, who ended up drifting markedly on the day and sunk without trace, so what are the prospects in the Guineas for his big-race doppelganger Ten Sovereigns, who did what very few two-year-olds do first time out when posting both a three-figure form rating and timefigure in a ten-length win at the Curragh?

Superficially, there is much to like about his prospects.

Unlike Lalor, he has the best form (120), albeit marginally, the best timefigure (116), and not only does he come from a yard that has won the race three times in the last four years, but he has been chosen by Ryan Moore ahead of the stable’s other runner (and fellow Group 1 winner) Magna Grecia.

The overwhelming reservation about recommending Ten Sovereigns as a bet concerns his stamina.

His dam stayed a mile and a quarter, but his sire No Nay Never was beaten both times he ran beyond six furlongs, and Ten Sovereigns didn’t give the impression he would improve (which he will need to do) now stepping up from six furlongs to a mile. No Middle Park winner has won the Guineas since Rodrigo de Triano in 1991, and it would be no surprise if something else usurps him as favourite on the day.

Ten Sovereigns remains unbeaten after winning the Middle Park Stakes earlier and helped complete a big-race treble for Aidan and Donnacha O'Brien

How good can this horse be? pic.twitter.com/cfjOe7uNQI

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 29, 2018

Magna Grecia showed a very similar level of form to Ten Sovereigns as a two-year-old, and posted a timefigure of 113 (the second best in the field) when beaten by Persian King in the Autumn Stakes. He has to be high on any short list with those credentials, but in a very open year much the same can be said about at least half a dozen of the other runners.

Too Darn Hot would have started a very short-priced favourite had he not been injured, but last year’s champion two-year-old is ‘represented’ by Advertise who was second to him in the Dewhurst. That was one of only two defeats for Advertise last year, but it represented easily his best form and he left the impression the Guineas trip will be no problem.

The step up to a mile will be a plus for Madhmoon, who showed a fine turn of foot to win both his races last year and lost nothing in defeat on his reappearance against a race-fit rival at Leopardstown. He is yet to clock a good overall time, but he is one of five horses in the field who have recorded a sectional upgrade 15 lb or higher (effectively what the horse might have achieved in the race had it been run differently) and already run to at least a performance rating of 110. The other two runners fitting that description are Craven winner Skardu and Free Handicap winner Shine So Bright. Along with the Jean-Luc Lagadere winner Royal Marine, who is closely matched with Madhmoon but was rather underwhelming behind Skardu in the Craven, they are firmly in the mix in a race that makes little appeal as a betting medium. 

Four fewer runners go to post in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday and the Cheltenham analogy we drew on earlier is still relevant as the race has the look of one of those Festival Handicaps in recent years where the horses with the best chances – at least on Timeform ratings – are all trained in Ireland.

The raiding party dominate the race from a timefigure perspective as well, but only two of the runners have recorded a figure above 110, and that perhaps explains why the very promising Roger Varian-trained Qabala heads the market after maintaining her unbeaten record in the Nell Gwyn.  She was visually impressive coming from off the pace when beating her stablemate Mot Juste by a length and a half, but neither the timefigure (87) nor her sectional upgrade (7 lb) for that run are as alluring, and she looks short enough in the betting for one light on both achievement and experience in a race that often goes to horses that are well campaigned as a youngster. So who fits the bill?

Without doubt, the two horses with the best time credentials are Fairyland and Iridessa. The former posted a 114 when bolting on the Cheveley Park to her win in the Lowther, but much the same doubts exist about her as they do with stablemate Ten Sovereigns – she is unraced beyond six furlongs and her sire Kodiac was a sprinter.

Iridessa storms to win in the bet365 Fillies' Mile at @NewmarketRace pic.twitter.com/5KTSD5t1jF

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 12, 2018

Iridessa gets her 111 figure from the Fillies’ Mile over the Guineas course and distance last autumn. That 14/1-win came as something of a surprise at the time, but there was no fluke about it with her rider not needing to resort to the whip until inside the final furlong, and she went a long way to confirming it when third behind Lady Kaya over seven furlongs on her reappearance at Leopardstown. Conditions that day probably suited the speedily-bred Lady Kaya (who hugged the rail) better than they did Iridessa (who came very wide) and in any case Lady Kaya has a fair bit to find with some old rivals such as Moyglare Stud winner Skitter Scatter and Fillies’ Mile runner-up Hermosa.

The May Hill winner Fleeting is another who can’t be ruled out, but Iridessa has slightly less to prove than most, and might just prove the most reliable option now back at a mile.   

Recommended bet:

Back Iridessa to win Sunday's 1000 Guineas at 7/1