Sectional Timing Preview: York Ebor Festival

York’s Ebor Meeting deserves its special place in every true racing fan’s heart.

It has been the setting for some of the greatest performances in the sport’s history – including the victory of Roberto over Brigadier Gerard in the 1972 Benson & Hedges Gold Cup, of Dayjur in the 1990 Nunthorpe Stakes and of Frankel in the 2012 International Stakes – and it is slotted neatly between the testing grounds of high summer and the increasingly international challenges of the autumn.  

The locals will also remind you that it enjoys the not inconsiderable advantage of taking place in God’s Own County. True or not, it manages to compete vigorously with Royal Ascot, Goodwood and Newmarket

for the title of top British Flat racing festival.

Contrary to what you still occasionally read and hear, York is not “a front-runners’ track” (whatever that might be) with early leaders faring worse than the national average taken overall.

However, there is a clear distinction between sprint races and races at 7f plus, as shown by the following tables.

York ranked sixth-best of 33 turf courses for horses with Timeform Early Position Figures of 1 (front-runners near the beginning of the race) at sprint distances but fifth-worst of 33 at longer trips.

That sprint course is flat and fast, and early leaders do not always come back; that round course is also flat, but it is galloping with a long straight, and the opposite tends to be the case.

That is the general picture, but the point of pace analysis is to identify where the specifics of a race are different. You can be sure that front-runners will not be “suited” on the straight course if they go too fast, and that they will be helped on the round course if allowed an easy lead.

Sectionals, and not just positions, are the best way to measure such things, both in the here and now and when looking at a horse’s past form. Thanks to Timeform’s unique Sectional Archive – derived from sophisticated video analysis of all races – that can now be done in a way that was simply not possible previously.

Sectionals have helped greatly in explaining what has gone on in a multitude of races already this season, and they sometimes managed the altogether more difficult job of predicting what had yet to happen. This is what they say about the four days ahead, starting with the Group 1s.

This year’s International Stakes on Wednesday represents a crossroads for several major strands of form, ranging from a mile to a mile and a half, and between the classic and the older generations.

Barney Roy looked slightly unlucky on sectionals to get beaten by Churchill in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and duly exacted his revenge at Royal Ascot, though Churchill was not at his very best that day.

Importantly, given that the International is due to be run over the full 10.4f, Barney Roy has shown exceptional speed to date, but that was not quite enough to take him to victory in a tactical Eclipse Stakes at Sandown last time, when he lost by a nose to Ulysses.

The sectionals from that race give no clear reason why Barney Roy should reverse the decision with Ulysses here, though he has had less racing than his older rival, of course. Ulysses has since run a fine second to Enable at Ascot in a good time despite the 12f on soft going there appearing to tax him.

Cliffs of Moher was only fourth at Sandown, but had been hampered early on. Before that, he shaped like this trip might be ideal when second in The Derby, though that classic was not an especially strong one.

Cliffs of Moher had put in outstanding sectionals from the front when winning at two years, and it must be possible he will be ridden similarly here. However, the more of a test this race proves to be, the more it threatens to expose the stamina of not just Barney Roy but Cliffs of Moher’s stablemate Churchill. The last-named is very good at a mile, at which trip he has shown as much speed as stamina.

Ulysses probably deserves to be favourite, just, but is third in at 7/2 at the time of writing.

Time analysis identified Enable as a very good filly on the back of her win in The Oaks at Epsom, at which time she was a double-figured price for the Arc. She is now not much bigger than evens for that race and has Thursday’s Yorkshire Oaks at her mercy.

It is not that Enable has run much faster in subsequent wins at the Curragh and Ascot, but she has shown a remarkable adaptability to ground and versatility regarding tactics. She was blisteringly fast late on at the Curragh on firm ground and off a steady pace, and she finished her race really well at Ascot on soft ground and off a true pace. Sectionals underline that there are no chinks in Enable’s armour.

Those figures for Queen’s Trust do not look all that impressive, but she has had things against her each time and ran a similar race to Ulysses when given too much to do on her penultimate start. Then again, Enable beat Ulysses handsomely last time and Queen’s Trust probably finds this 12f plenty far enough.

Nezwaah managed to run identical sectional times in victory at Ayr and the Curragh this year and might win an ordinary Yorkshire Oaks, assuming she stayed the extra distance. But Enable ensures this is no ordinary renewal.

The immovable object meets the unstoppable force, as Lady Aurelia and Battaash square up for what promises to be a vintage Nunthorpe Stakes on Friday.

It might be argued that the faster the conditions the better for Lady Aurelia, who scorched home in a time just 1/100 of a second outside the course record in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. But that is not to say that Battaash is slow, for all that his trio of spectacular wins this year have been on a stiffer track or softer ground.

Lady Aurelia beat Profitable and Marsha slightly further at Ascot than Battaash beat them at Goodwood, but Lady Aurelia arguably started to go off the boil this time last year, while Battaash just seems to be getting better and better.

There looks to be precious little between them on sectionals, but that 130 timefigure – the fastest in Britain and Ireland this year – edges things in Battaash’s favour, and he is a slightly bigger price, too.

Marsha is the most obvious to benefit if anything befalls the principals, with that Curragh sectional on her penultimate start being the fastest at the course in recent history. But she didn’t get near to achieving that at either Royal Ascot or Goodwood, and a complete pace meltdown looks to be her best chance. Like Lady Aurelia, she gets a 3 lb sex allowance.

While the big races of York’s Ebor Meeting do not look replete with betting opportunities, there are a few interesting horses on sectionals to look out for elsewhere.

Cracksman is a deserving favourite for the Great Voltigeur on the opening day – best of these on sectionals at both Epsom and especially the Curragh – but he has little in hand of Mirage Dancer, who came home well (36.87s last 3f) in a fast-time Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot on his latest start.

The latter, a son of Frankel, looks like being suited by the step up to a mile and a half and makes plenty of each-way appeal at around 5/1 in a “dead-eight” race.

Dee Ex Bee is preferred to Fleet Review in the Acomb Stakes 35 minutes earlier, having recorded a time of a potentially smart performer at Goodwood on his only start, but Lansky also put in good sectionals on his debut win and this may be a race to watch rather than bet in.

Make a note of Savalas in the concluding nursery on Wednesday, as he looked a useful prospect when winning at Thirsk last time with an excellent 34.09s last 3f and should be at least as good at this extra furlong. His mark of 81 looks generous, though he has got all of 19 rivals to contend with!

Declarations had not been made for later in the week at the time of writing, but the entry of Mustashry in the Strensall Stakes on Saturday catches the eye. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained four-year-old put in a real “wow!” performance when coming from last to first to win a valuable handicap at Chelmsford recently, running a 34.81s last 3f that puts him firmly into Group class.

Providing camerawork allows the taking of accurate manual sectionals, there will be a Debrief of the York action on these pages after all four days have been completed. There should be plenty to consider!

RECOMMENDATIONS. Wednesday: Ulysses (win), Mirage Dancer (e/w), Savalas (e/w). Friday: Battaash (win). Saturday: Mustashry (win).