Sectional Timing Preview: York Dante Festival

One of the delightful oddities of this time of the horseracing year is that several of the “trials” for The Derby and The Oaks take place under circumstances which do not remotely resemble the test likely to face the runners at Epsom early in June.

There are few courses as different to the ups, downs, kinks, turns and cambers of the Surrey track as York’s wide-open, sweeping and near-flat circuit. In addition, the trials at York are run at more than a furlong and a half shorter than the classics.

Despite this, winners of York’s Dante Stakes have gone on to success in racing’s blue riband on four occasions this century (North Light in 2004, Motivator in 2005, Authorized in 2007 and Golden Horn in 2015), while the Musidora Stakes winner of 2009, Sariska, followed up in The Oaks. Perhaps the main message is that ability tends to win out regardless.

Whether or not ability is in short supply for Wednesday’s Tattersalls Musidora Stakes remains to be seen, but runners certainly are. Just five have been declared, and this therefore represents a great opportunity for them to acquire some Group 3 kudos.

A consideration of times – both overall and sectional ones – may help to establish which are the genuine contenders and which are pot-hunting.

Shutter Speed is third-favourite for The Oaks and will be a short price for this, having won a maiden at Yarmouth and a minor contest at Newbury in good style.

So far, so good, though the evidence of the clock is not quite so encouraging. Neither of her timefigures has been especially good, and, while her closing sectional last time was quick and resulted in a decent upgrade, it should be noted that pars at Newbury are above 100% due to the course’s topography and layout.

The initial impression of Vociferous Marina’s win in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan last time might have been that she was helped by an overly-strong pace, in that she came from last place. Sectionals suggest otherwise, as her estimated speed from 2f out was faster than her average race speed, despite the track’s uphill finish.

More likely is that the combination of a longer distance and a tongue tie (which she is declared in again here) brought about the improvement. A tactical race would require her to show more speed, but at least York’s straight is a long one of about 4.5f, giving her plenty of time to unwind.

Serenada and Vintage Folly are promising maiden winners stepping up in class (at least in theory). Neither has a good timefigure nor especially impressive sectional upgrades.

Others in the Sandown contest which Serenada won ran faster late on than did she, in a race in which she was helped by being close up. Similar comments apply to Vintage Folly’s Newcastle win, though the only rival to emerge better than her in that race on sectionals was runner-up Gymnaste, who won at Chester last week and promises to be useful.

Miss Infinity had a string of high-80s timefigures as a two-year-old but has done little on the clock in two runs this term to suggest she will be better in her sophomore campaign, as she will surely need to be to win this.

If Shutter Speed proves to be as good as some think she is, or if Vociferous Marina takes another step forward, then the Musidora should take as much winning as usual this year. But, at this stage, it looks quite a bit weaker than the Betfred-sponsored Dante Stakes on Thursday, the runners for which have yet to be declared.

The following are among the main likely contenders for the colts’ race.

Both Cracksman and Crystal Ocean were sectional eye-catchers in their sole starts at two years, especially the former, who came from off a solid pace to win at Newmarket like a Group horse in the making.

The Derby Trial Cracksman won at Epsom last month was not even a Listed race but punched well above its weight, and Cracksman showed good speed on the downhill finish to prevail.

That said, he was only a bit quicker than Permian and about the same as Bay of Poets in the closing stages, having taken a short while to get a clear run: those two have since won and finished second in Listed races respectively. It is solid form, rather than spectacular form, in other words.

Crystal Ocean has been tested for finishing speed in his two races to date, as those high finishing speeds and sectional upgrades show. Interestingly, the newcomer that was third to him at Nottingham, Nathan, actually managed to run the last 3f even quicker that day.

Anyone supporting Crystal Ocean for the Dante (let alone The Derby) should be under no illusions as to how much tougher an assignment this is for him, highly promising though he undoubtedly is.

It is debatable, however, whether the Dante represents a bigger test for Benbatl than was running in a top Guineas trial at Newmarket last time on the back of just one previous outing.

In what proved to be the fastest Craven Stakes ever, Benbatl came third to Eminent and Rivet, who have since finished sixth in what may be an especially strong Guineas and third (despite doing a lot of donkey-work) in the French equivalent.

The final furlong of the well-run Craven was quite slow, with Benbatl at just over 13.0s for it, but there should be no problem for him at an extended 10f – the opposite on breeding, if anything – providing his energy is distributed efficiently. Benbatl has good time-based claims for the Dante.

There is not a lot to go on with Rekindling in terms of timefigures (suspect distances at Gowran, where he won a maiden, make time analysis there especially difficult) and sectionals. But his Ballysax Stakes win was efficiently achieved, and yet the overall time did not compare particularly well with the modest handicap over the same course and distance which followed it.

The three Rekindling beat that day filled the first three places in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial back at Leopardstown later in April, but in a blanket finish and again in an unexceptional overall time.

What is for sure is that we will shortly be learning a lot more about the abilities and the speed/stamina of many of the aforementioned. In time terms, Vociferous Marina looks to have a shout of upsetting Shutter Speed in the Musidora, while Benbatl looks a big player in the Dante.

There are just two Sectional Flags over the three days of the York May Meeting: Shutter Speed is one and Chessman (4:35 Wednesday) is the other.

Chessman is likely to be a hot favourite, but with every justification. He ran a swift 34.55s last 3f (107.8% finishing speed) when winning at Kempton on his debut – getting a 21-lb upgrade in a race in which no other horse got more than 8 – then was unlucky not to beat Bacchus in a handicap at Newbury on his return.

Chessman was 0.75s quicker than Bacchus in the final half-mile that day (108.1% finishing speed), and 0.08s quicker than Barney Roy was in the Greenham over the same course and distance the following day (in an admittedly much more truly-run contest): sectionals suggest Chessman should have beaten Bacchus by something like four lengths.

One other horse did even better than Chessman in that Newbury handicap, and that was third-placed Winning Ways (45.29s last 4f compared to Chessman’s 45.51s) who had Bacchus back in third when winning easily at Ascot on Friday. Everything points to a big run from the John Gosden-trained colt on Wednesday.

The aforementioned races are just a trio of many intriguing and good-quality contests over the three days. There will be a Sectional Debrief of the best of the action on these pages after Friday’s card has taken place.