Sectional Timing Preview: Qatar Goodwood Festival

After the weather we have been having, it would be most welcome if Goodwood lived up to its “Glorious” tag and delivered plenty of sunshine and few or no showers. In other respects, the coming week’s meeting should live up to expectations: five days of quality racing, with some intriguing match-ups, seem assured.

An appreciation of events will be enhanced by a better understanding of the protagonists’ strengths, and of the specific tasks facing them, and a better understanding should make turning a profit more likely. This preview will look at things to that end primarily from a sectional-timing point of view.  

The Goodwood course itself promises to be a major factor in events. The straight six-furlongs rises briefly before dropping markedly around the four-furlong marker then flattens out. Races at longer distances involve both undulations and bends, some of those bends as sharp as you will find on a British racecourse.

Speed and adaptability will be of the essence, then, but you still need stamina to win the two-mile Qatar Goodwood Cup, highlight of the opening day on Tuesday. Big Orange has all three elements, as he has shown by winning the last two runnings of this race, and as he underlined by winning the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot recently.

So, how do you beat a horse like Big Orange? Not by trying to do him for speed, nor by allowing him a positional advantage, that’s for sure.

This is a gelding who won a steadily-run 12f Group 2 at Newmarket last summer by running a very swift 35.00s for the last 3f, having been granted an unchallenged lead. This is also a gelding who ran 35.18s for the last 3f of this race in 2015 and 36.15s in 2016.

Big Orange arguably should have been beaten by Order of St George at Royal Ascot last time, when doing more running earlier, but the latter turned into the home straight several lengths adrift and could not quite make up the deficit.

Handy, adaptable, quick and resolute, the classy Big Orange might have been made for the Goodwood Cup. There are some among his 15 rivals on Tuesday who may press him close – notably Simple Verse at her best – but none who can obviously beat him in his attempt to match Double Trigger’s trio of successes in the race in the 1990s.

The Goodwood Cup is the centrepiece of day one, but the Qatar Sussex Stakes on Wednesday is the traditional highlight of the entire meeting. This year’s race looks like being a showdown between the four-year-old Ribchester and the three-year-old Churchill.

As the Sectional Debrief showed, The former was a strong-finishing and probably unlucky third in this race last year, running 33.85s for the last 3f that day, and has won the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot on his last two starts to cement his status as the leading older miler around.

However, Ribchester is “good” not “very good” on overall times and sectionals, and Churchill may not have to raise his game to beat him. That Lockinge win for Ribchester saw him leading at halfway in a time slower than recorded by the leader in the handicap later on the card – he got the run of things to a degree in other words – while his Queen Anne win came in very efficient style as judged by sectionals (24.30s last 2f, or 99.4% finishing speed) and does not suggest there is much better to come.

Churchill was a disappointment himself when fourth to Barney Roy in the St James’s Palace Stakes later that day at Royal Ascot, though the run of that race made his effort look worse than it was.

Before that, Churchill had benefited from a masterful Ryan Moore ride to beat Barney Roy in the Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket (34.63s last 3f) and ran a 124 timefigure (and 35.90s last 3f on rain-softened ground) in beating Thunder Snow comprehensively in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh.   

A refreshed Churchill – as one imagines he is – is at least the equal of Ribchester in timing terms and is every bit as versatile tactically, but he is the one at the longer odds at the time of writing.

Thursday at Goodwood sees another fascinating generational clash in the Qatar Nassau Stakes, for which the three-year-old Winter is favourite against four-year-olds Queen’s Trust, Nezwaah and So Mi Dar.

That Winter is a good filly is beyond dispute, following her wins (all in strong times) in the One Thousand Guineas at Newmarket and the Curragh and in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, but this represents a higher level of competition altogether.

In particular, Queen’s Trust looks capable of making life very difficult for her. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup winner has got into two slowly-run affairs this year and shaped as if retaining all her ability despite finishing only fourth in them.

In the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time Queen’s Trust shaped every bit as well as Ulysses (winner of the Eclipse and second in the King George since) in attempting to come from behind, running the fastest final 2f of all (23.11s), as the Timeform Sectional Debrief showed.

Winter may well have to be better than ever at this longer trip to come out on top.

Friday at Goodwood is when the real speedsters take centre stage in the Qatar King George Stakes. This is not the fastest 5f in the game – that honour goes to Epsom – but the aforementioned drop around 4f out rivals anything at the Surrey course and better horses run in this race than at Epsom.

As a result, the King George has the fastest individual furlong sectionals I can find anywhere. TurfTrax has the unplaced Ladies Are Forever running 9.68s (46.5 mph) in this race in 2014, while every runner dipped under 10.00s (45 mph) in 2015, when Muthmir beat Take Cover. Take Cover failed only narrowly to break 10.00s for that section when beating Washington DC 12 months ago.

Muthmir, Take Cover and Washington DC go again but face stern opposition from two who finished ahead of them in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, Profitable and Marsha, and a new kid on the block in Battaash.

It is almost as fascinating to try to predict who might lead early in what promises to be a hell-for-leather stampede as to speculate who might win. The former could be bet upon if British racing ever invested in reliable electronic sectionals, with Take Cover, Battaash and Kachy probably the favourites in that order, but success will go to a horse who not only shows speed but sees the race out.

My preference is for Marsha, who is very far from slow, but who is helped by a strong gallop at the minimum trip. She did not get it when short-headed by Caspian Prince at the Curragh last time, when she ran the fastest last 3f (32.33s, 41.8 mph) at the course in Timeform’s Sectional Archive. Hers was the fastest last 2f (22.94s, 39.2 mph) bar the freakishly fast winner Lady Aurelia in the aforementioned King’s Stand Stakes.

The ground at Goodwood is forecast as “good” on the round course and “good to soft” on the straight, though with largely drying conditions. This year’s King George may take some getting by speedball standards, and no sub-10.0s furlongs are expected.

The runners, never mind the conditions, are unknown for most of the races at Goodwood at this stage, but Expert Eye is one of 11 declared for the Qatar Vintage Stakes on Tuesday and should be on everyone’s sectional shortlist.

He ran the equivalent of a 109 sectional rating when landing a minor event at Newbury on his only start with a 46.82s last 4f (38.4 mph), and that race is generally working out well. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Seahenge could be a big danger but was not so impressive sectionally (as far as could be ascertained) when winning a maiden at Naas.

Sectionals derived from video analysis rely on helpful camerawork. As long as that is in place this year at Goodwood, Timeform will again plug the gaps in the official record and there will be a Sectional Debrief of the whole meeting on these pages at the end.

Recommendations: EXPERT EYE (Tuesday), CHURCHILL (Wednesday), QUEEN’S TRUST (Thursday) and MARSHA (Friday).