Sectional Timing Preview: Champions Day 2017

It is difficult to believe that there was a time, not so long ago, when British Champions Day was viewed with suspicion by many within racing. It was at the wrong time in mid-October, at the wrong course at Ascot, and was in any case unnecessary, apparently.

Following wins by the likes of Frankel (twice), Cirrus des Aigles, Excelebration, Muhaarar, Minding and Almanzor, perhaps the event’s main problem is that it has set itself a standard so high that it will be hard to maintain.

The fields declared for Saturday’s seventh BCD look like having a good crack at that, however, even if the weather is threatening to let the show down.

 This preview will look at events from a sectional and overall timing point of view – it is important to remember that the two are inextricably linked – and is meant to supplement other forms of analysis, not replace them.

Things like, draw, jockeyship and suitability to conditions matter, but so does evidence of how quickly a horse has shown it can run, not just from start to finish but in the sections along the way.

First, let’s look at the main contenders for the QIPCO British Champions Sprint in some detail.

Harry Angel is by some way the likeliest winner judged on his Haydock Sprint Cup victory last time and his course-record-breaking success (not shown) there earlier in the year, but that is reflected in his odds.

Anyone looking for a chink in his armour can point to his defeat by Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup at this course and distance in June, when Harry Angel was probably forced into going too fast by that horse’s stablemate.

Harry Angel is all speed and very little stamina, but soft ground did not stop him one bit in the Sprint Cup, a race admittedly run at a less-searching pace, as those finishing speed %s show. There is, however, a weather forecast for rain and a very strong headwind on Saturday, and that could play to others’ strengths.

Caravaggio has not appeared top-class other than on that day, and The Tin Man (winner of this race 12 months ago) and Quiet Reflection may be better alternatives, especially the latter, who gets a sex allowance and has had a very light campaign this year.

Quiet Reflection looked back to her best in Ireland last time and has a from-behind run style that may suit conditions. The shape of the race lends itself to an each-way bet and Quiet Reflection looks the one to side with.

An even better punting race could be the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, for which the sectionals for the principals are as follows.

The weak link here, from a timing perspective, is Beat The Bank, who is the same price in some quarters as a dual classic winner in Churchill.

Beat The Bank has won all but one of his six races, but his Joel Stakes success last time came in an overall time which was scarcely quicker than that recorded by the winner of an ordinary fillies’ listed race on the same card.

Sectionals show that everything else in the Joel stopped late on, probably through lack of stamina or lack of resolution, enabling Beat The Bank to clear off to score by five lengths. His opposition on Saturday represents a far stiffer assignment.

One of them, Al Wukair, looks over-priced. He got a poor ride when third at Newmarket in a tactical 2000 Guineas in which Churchill (34.63s last 3f) got a good one, and showed no shortage of speed to get up close home in a messy Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time.

Al Wukair’s run style is probably a consequence of a quirky nature, but things may pan out well for him here and his odds make the risk worth it.

Ribchester and Churchill are admirable horses, if ones who look a fraction below the very top tier. Sectionals suggested Al Wukair should just about have beaten Churchill in that Guineas, and we finally get another chance to see the two horses go head to head.

Moving onto the QIPCO Champion Stakes itself, Cracksman may be a very good horse, but the question is will he be a very good horse on Saturday at a trip shorter than any he has tried since his debut?

The son of Frankel has more than a little pace, as illustrated by those sectionals in the Irish Derby at the Curragh in particular. But being sent for home 3f out on a galloping track in a 12f race that had been well-run (the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York) were the circumstances which brought about his most convincing performance, and Saturday will be somewhat different.

His supporters have already got a result with the unexpected defection of Ulysses, who looked the likeliest winner, and Cracksman’s odds have contracted further.

In contrast to Cracksman, Barney Roy’s stamina may be slightly suspect if this turns into a slog, and he showed terrific speed to win a tactical St James’s Palace Stakes on firm ground at this course.

Both Poet’s Word and Brametot are capable of capitalising if the two aforementioned under-perform, as is Highland Reel, though an absence, shorter trip and softer ground may to varying degrees count against him.

I got burnt ante-post on Ulysses, and am still tempted to lay Cracksman, but on balance think this is a race to sit out for betting purposes.  

Elsewhere, Order of St George is a worthy favourite in the QIPCO Long Distance Cup, but is plenty short enough at around evens.

The sectionals confirm he should have beaten Big Orange in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot – a rare Ryan Moore error, with the five-year-old making up several lengths from the home turn – but he didn’t quite, and Big Orange tends to make his own luck.

The latter was beaten fair and square by Stradivarius in a well-run Goodwood Cup but is now 5 lb better for one and three quarter lengths due to weight-for-age. Against that Big Orange missed an intended engagement recently, so I will resist the temptation of what might otherwise look like a bit of each-way “thievery” on the Michael Bell-trained stalwart.

The Prix Vermeille was easily the fastest of the three races at 2400 metres at Chantilly on Arc Trials Day, and the one-two in it – Bateel and Journey – reoppose in the Fillies & Mares. The soft ground and strong early pace took its toll late on in France, with Bateel posting a finishing speed of 98.7% and Journey paying even more with one of just 97.2%.

Journey has every prospect of reversing placings under a slightly more patient ride, and her odds are appealing enough given how strong that Vermeille looks on the clock and how she shaped in it.   

British Champions Day is rightly regarded as a jewel in British racing’s crown in most respects, but there has been a notable, and most disappointing, absence of even basic official sectional timing since 2014, and it seems that will continue this weekend. 

Providing the camerawork allows, Timeform will use sophisticated video analysis to provide individual horse sectionals, finishing speed %s and upgrades in its Sectional Archive – which is where the British and Irish ones quoted above can be found – and there will be a Sectional Debrief of the main action on these pages after the event.

Recommendations: each-way back QUIET REFLECTION, win back JOURNEY, win back AL WUKAIR, place lay BEAT THE BANK