Sectional Timing Preview: Arc Day 2017

Much as most roads in central Paris seem to lead to the dizzying interchange on which the original Arc de Triomphe stands, so most strands of top European middle-distance form lead to the race which takes its name from that national monument.

Here we are, on the first day of October, with an epic showdown which includes the principals from many of the continent’s best races at beyond a mile. A field of 18 at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe’s temporary home at Chantilly means that whatever emerges victorious is likely to have avoided misfortune along the way in addition to being a superlative equine athlete.

With that in mind, anyone looking to have a bet in the Arc itself – due off at 15:05 GMT – is faced with a fairly simple proposition: to back Enable, at around even money, or not to back Enable? That is the question.

The case for the filly being favourite is solid, if slightly less so from a timing point of view, which is what this preview will concentrate on.

Enable ran fast overall in winning The Oaks at Epsom – at which stage she was still a double-figured price for this race – and she ran faster still (recording a 123 timefigure) when storming away with the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

On either side of the second of those, she ran not-so-fast overall in winning the Irish Oaks at the Curragh and the Yorkshire Oaks at York but showed electrifying speed at the business end.

She completed the last 3f at the Curragh in just 33.28s (40.6 mph) according to the Timeform Sectional Archive, an almost-unheard-of time at anything other than sprint distances, even with the ground fast and the earlier pace slow.

Fast ground, slow ground, fast pace, slow pace: it all comes alike to Enable, the brightest star of the European season so far.

If you are on Enable at a big price, then well done and good luck. But does she deserve to be so short in the betting for her toughest assignment of all? “No” would be my answer.

Against her, she has a horse with an even faster timefigure to his name in Ulysses (127, in the International Stakes at York), whose stamina gave way late on when second to the filly in the mud at Ascot, a fast-time Classic winner in Capri (123, in the St Leger at Doncaster), a fast-time Irish St Leger winner in Order of St George (123) and the likes of Winter (119, twice, though with a considerable doubt about her stamina), Brametot and Zarak, the last two having run good times in victory in France.

There are also significant challengers from Japan (Satono Diamond) and Germany (Dschingis Secret and Iquitos), though the first two did nothing special on the clock when clashing in a muddling Prix Foy here a few weeks ago.

Any one of those could step up on the big occasion. As much to the point, any one of those could, unintentionally, step in the way of Enable on her big day.

Ulysses, Capri, Zarak and Order of St George are her biggest dangers, in that order, on overall times and sectionals. But, rather than trying to land on the winner, a lay of Enable at a short price is the recommendation: you will have plenty of good performers, and plenty of potential for stuff to happen, on your side.

Sunday’s Arc card opens with two fascinating juvenile contests, the Prix Marcel Boussac (13:10 GMT) and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13:45 GMT).

The French will fancy their chances of keeping the former at home through Polydream, who ran a fast time in beating the subsequent May Hill Stakes winner Laurens in the Prix du Calvados at Deauville in August.

But Magical achieved even more on the clock (113 timefigure) when a short-head second to stable-companion Happily in a strong Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in September and is around double Polydream’s price. An uncomplicated type who goes from the front, Magical looks worth a bet.

If you fancy Magical in the Boussac, you may well fancy Happily in the Lagardere. She probably deserves to be favourite, just about, but there is plenty up against her here.

Masar ran a 111 timefigure in defeat at Royal Ascot, while both Mythical Magic and Olmedo (who managed about 11.6s for the final 200 metres last time) have significant sectionals to their names. This may be a race to watch and learn from.

The Prix de l’Opera (15:50 GMT) is an open contest, with 14 having been declared. Queen’s Trust would be the pick of them at her best but may not have things to suit her again here.

One who looks over-priced is Left Hand, who was third to Bateel in the Prix Vermeille – easily the fastest of three 2400-metre races on Arc Trials Day here – despite paying somewhat late on in an attritional contest. She held her own in good company earlier in the year, including with a fifth to Zarak in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and can reward each-way support at a double-figure price.

Not all that far behind the Arc itself in terms of wider significance, the Prix de l’Abbaye (16:35 GMT) promises a right old showdown between three of the best 5f performers in Europe.

Signs of Blessing, the home-team representative, has run outstanding times when winning twice this year, but has disappointed on the other two occasions. A resurgent Marsha, winner of this 12 months ago, ran a 125 timefigure when mugging Lady Aurelia on the line in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York last time.

Behind Marsha at York that day was Battaash, who had previously broken the course record at Sandown then run the fastest timefigure of the year (130) when trotting up on soft going at Goodwood (with Marsha only third), but who seemed to lose his race in the preliminaries.

An added element is that Battaash has to concede 4 lb to Marsha and race off level weights with Signs of Blessing, despite being only a three-year-old. He will need to be every bit as good as Goodwood suggested he is to prevail.

If you intend backing Battaash, then consider waiting until he is at the start and on good terms with himself. For me, this is another race which will not suffer for the absence of a financial investment.

Recommendations: win lay ENABLE, win back MAGICAL, each-way back LEFT HAND

Click here to read Simon's 32Red Gold Cup preview