Sectional Timing Preview: 2000 and 1000 Guineas

There are many different ways to tackle horseracing analysis, and the astute punter uses a number of them rather than focusing on one to the exclusion of all others.

Where this coming weekend’s Guineas Meeting at Newmarket is concerned, you will find form analysis, pedigree analysis, trends analysis and the quotes of those closest to the horses – to name but four – elsewhere if you look hard enough.

Each of those has some value, ranging from a lot to a little. What you may struggle to find elsewhere is an assessment based on sectionals and overall times. But, don’t worry, for you will find it here.

Running a good overall time is not the purpose of the exercise where a horserace is concerned, but running a good overall time is something that only a good horse can do. So it is a vital piece of information where it occurs.

Where a good horse fails to run a good overall time, it may well be down to the pace at which the race was run.

If we can identify where inefficiencies in pace have affected an overall time, then we may be justified in excusing a good horse an ostensibly poor defeat. And we may be able to spot a horse that is good long before that fact is appreciated more widely.

Overall times have been analysed by Timeform for decades. How those overall times were achieved – by deconstructing those times into sectionals – has been analysed for rather shorter.

But the important thing to understand is that overall times and the sectionals which give rise to them work in tandem. The more inefficiently a horse distributes its energy through a race, the more that horse’s overall time will suffer.

Let us look at how some of the main candidates for the two classics rate by this measure, using Timeform’s timefigures and its unique Sectional Archive.

All four leading candidates for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas have run fast, but not very fast, as judged by those overall timefigures. By way of comparison, Galileo Gold ran a 123 Timeform timefigure in winning the first colt’s classic last year, which proved to be the fastest by a three-year-old in Britain and Ireland in 2016.

Leading the way pre-race this time is Barney Roy, with a 119 figure achieved in winning the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in the third-fastest time in that race’s long history. Barney Roy won despite taking a while to get going and covering the closing stages faster than par, which earns him a further 2 lb sectional upgrade.

That sectional-upgrading process (resulting from the difference between the finishing speed of a horse, expressed as a % of its average race speed, and par for the course and distance) identified Barney Roy as something out of the ordinary when he won a maiden at Haydock on his only start at two: a respectable timefigure became very much better than that on account of how quickly the colt finished that race.

Barney Roy was briefly made to look lacking in speed at Newbury, but only by a horse – Dream Castle – who could be top sprinting material. He is not slow in a wider context, but there is every reason to expect him to benefit from a return to a mile.

There is little between Churchill, Al Wukair and Eminent on times and sectionals at their best. Eminent ran the fastest Craven Stakes ever on his latest outing, helped in doing so by a fast surface and a strong pace. But he still recorded a smart time in relative terms and deserved a small upgrade for how well he finished.

The concern is that Eminent may require a similar test at a mile to repeat that effort, let alone to improve upon it.

Churchill failed to break timing records at two years, but that did not stop him from winning his last five races and stamping himself as the champion juvenile. He could prove better at a mile – and probably will need to – but his closing stages in the Dewhurst Stakes illustrated that he has the kind of turn of foot which should be a potent weapon if Saturday’s race becomes tactical.

Al Wukair is a bit less easy to weigh up. He ran easily the fastest of four winners at 1400 metres at Maisons-Laffitte on the day he took the Prix Djebel, but sectionals show that the runner-up, National Defence, did plenty up front, and Al Wukair himself needed a long time to get going.

Nonetheless, a sub-35.0s closing sectional for the equivalent of 3f for Al Wukair shows he is not slow, either. Quirky, maybe, but not slow.

The figures for the leading candidates for the 1000 Guineas are not so impressive, but less is usually needed to win the fillies’ race than the colts’ in any case.

Rhododendron produced a smart time in winning the Fillies’ Mile here in October, seeming suited by the step up to a mile and possibly by the good pace. She actually ran a 34.66s last 3f when winning a maiden at Goodwood (not shown above), though that track is quicker than the others mentioned.

It is possible Rhododendron will be vulnerable for raw speed on Sunday unless the race is well-run, and a steady pace could assist some of her rivals.

Daban quickened well to win both her races – as shown by those high finishing speed %s and sectional upgrades – but her overall time in winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes suffers in comparison to others’ at that Newmarket Craven Meeting (including Eminent, who ran a longer trip at a faster average speed the following day).

Fair Eva ran one of the fastest times by a juvenile filly in 2016 when winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot with a quick enough finish to get a further upgrade, but was then defeated in speed-favouring races at York and Newmarket.

The clock does not lie (though our interpretation of it can prove wide of the mark), and the clock suggests that Fair Eva was a smart filly last summer and possibly not seen to best effect in her last two races.

Hydrangea was not good enough to beat her stable-companion Rhododendron in what seemed a true contest last autumn and ran only the same average speed as did Orderofthegarter at 1f further when successful at Leopardstown on her reappearance.

In terms of selections based on times and sectionals alone, I would go for Barney Roy in the 2000 Guineas and Fair Eva in the 1000. I have greater confidence in the former, but there is also greater opposition for him to face. Either way, both races look fascinating.

There will be (camerawork allowing) a full Sectional Debrief on here shortly after the conclusion of the meeting.

The Guineas are the highlights of Newmarket’s weekend, but there is plenty of really good supporting action. Only two horses across the two days have been picked out as Timeform Sectional “Flags”, and Barney Roy is one of them.

The other is Victory Angel, who goes in the 4.10pm at Newmarket on Saturday, the race after the 2000 Guineas. The Roger Varian-trained colt ran a useful 95 Timeform timefigure when winning on the same day as Eminent’s Craven and ran the 6f that day just 0.24s slower than leading sprinter Brando elsewhere on the card.

As much to the point, Victory Angel was timed running 33.55s for the final 3f of the race that day, which is the fastest Timeform has at the track in recent years (Toronado was hand timed at 33.0s when winning the Craven Stakes in 2013).

That led to Victory Angel getting a further 6 lb uplift to his timefigure, and yet he gets to go off a BHA mark of 92 on Saturday. Don’t be surprised if Victory Angel makes into a Group-class performer in due course, and he should be difficult to beat again here.