Sectional Timing Debrief: St Leger Festival

Reports of the death of the St Leger have long been greatly exaggerated, and the latest running of the oldest classic provided further evidence that it is, in fact, in rudely good health.

The William Hill-sponsored contest attracted 11 runners, all bar one or two of them with a realistic chance, and featured two previous Group 1 winners.

It was one of those two – Capri, last seen when winning the Irish Derby at the Curragh in July – who emerged victorious in a pulsating finish, the closeness of which should not be taken to indicate that the form was in any way substandard.

One reason that can be stated is that the clock strongly suggests it is so. The winning time of 3m 04.04s was one of the fastest in the race’s history of well over two centuries and stacks up very well indeed against other races on the same card when compared with Timeform standard times.

This was proper form, only slightly removed from the top-drawer stuff served up by the likes of Enable, Cracksman and a vintage crop of sprinters in recent months. And the same clock that tells you the principals in the St Leger ran pretty fast also suggests they could have run a bit faster still.

Sectional-timing analysis is now pretty well-established in British racing, even if the sectionals themselves are often strangely absent in an official sense. However, Total Performance Data sectionals did exist during the week, though the times quoted here are Timeform’s own, derived from sophisticated video analysis.  

This is what those sectionals say about the St Leger and some of the other big races of the meeting.

This year’s St Leger resulted in a fast overall time (on what was “good” going all round by this stage, having initially been slower) and in fast closing sectionals. All the first six ran the last 3f at a quicker speed than they did for the race overall and quicker than the course-and-distance par of just over 100%.

The early leader, rank outsider The Anvil, piled things on (TPD has him running sub-12.0s furlongs early in the race) but was largely allowed to do his own thing. The pace for the main body of the field was honest, but some speed, and not just stamina, was still required at the business end.

Capri showed both in leading 3f out and running on strongly, and compares well with recent St Leger winners on those counts, with only Kingston Hill quicker in the closing stages in recent years and Rule of Law (35.7s in 2004, not shown) otherwise faster this century.

Crystal Ocean showed marginally the best speed, but not quite so much stamina as did Capri when it really mattered deep in the final furlong. Given the run of the race, sectional upgrading has the former level with, or even edging fractionally ahead of, the latter.     

With some trainers, Crystal Ocean’s season might seem to be something of a missed opportunity, with only a maiden and a Group 3 win to the colt’s name. With Sir Michael Stoute, this looks very much like a springboard to a significant four-year-old campaign back at around 12f.

Credit must go also to Stradivarius and Rekindling, who can have successful Cup campaigns in 2018.

This year’s St Leger can be compared with two other staying races earlier in the week, the Park Hill Stakes and the Doncaster Cup, the latter won by a horse who had been third to Stradivarius in the Goodwood equivalent at 2m.

The ground was slower for the former race than on Saturday, and the distance 6 yards longer on account of rail movements, but those Finishing Speed %s neatly put the efforts into context. 

The Park Hill was falsely-run and ended up with the “wrong” result according to sectionals, with Melodic Motion and Detailed both breaking 36.0s easily for the last 3f and inconvenienced most by the run of the race.

The Doncaster Cup was well-run and produced a “correct” result, with Desert Skyline actually deserving a bit of extra credit. Thomas Hobson in second ran a solid enough trial for the Melbourne Cup, despite getting bumped as he came through to challenge, but connections seem lukewarm about the prospect.

Perhaps the most interesting comparison otherwise at the St Leger Meeting is between the two 7f Group 2 races on Saturday, which were run in similar overall times and similar fashions also.

Given that the Park Stakes is for older horses and the Champagne Stakes is for two-year-olds, that comparison reflects poorly on the former contest as the younger horses were effectively carrying between 12lb and 18lb more due to weight-for-age. The Champagne winner, Seahenge, would have been a close third in the Park Stakes on overall times.

Both races were falsely-run, with those Finishing Speed %s much higher than the par for course and distance. This was in marked contrast to the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, in which Home of The Brave had gone too fast and let in Breton Rock late on, with Aclaim encountering traffic problems.

All of the Park Stakes principals are capable of higher figures, but the overall times and sectionals underline just how messy this contest was.

The Champagne Stakes timefigure is likely to be nothing to write home about, either, but Seahenge did do something noteworthy in coming from last to first with a 34.58s sectional. Only two other two-year-old winners over the four days – Heartache (33.67s) in the 5f Flying Childers Stakes and Blue Laureate (34.30s) in a dawdle-then-sprint 8f maiden – were quicker late on.

Seahenge looked a bit quirky, but there is a lot of talent there, while Hey Gaman and Mythical Magic emerge with a fair amount of credit also.

If you are looking for a couple of winners who may well break through at Group level before long then the first two races on the opening day are a good place to start.

Shabaaby ran a 109 timefigure in winning a 6f Conditions Stakes by 7 lengths and gets an additional 3 lb sectional upgrade for a 36.43s (101.1% FS) last 3f. Nobleman’s Nest gets a 103 timefigure for winning a 7f nursery and an even bigger sectional upgrade of 10 lb for a 36.23s (103.1% FS) last 3f.

Those individual sectional times and upgrades, along with the same for all other competitors at Doncaster and elsewhere, can be found in Timeform’s unique Sectional Archive.