Sectional Timing Debrief: New Year 2017

The start of a new year is often a time to put the past behind you. But in horseracing, even more than in most walks of life, our appreciation of the future is inextricably linked with our understanding of what has already happened.

Before moving on into 2018, it is worth being sure we know what took place in the last few days of the old year. The period was not quite as frenetic as usual, due to cancellations which included the Welsh Grand National meeting at Chepstow, but there was still a lot going on, some of which was dealt with in a special post-Christmas Debrief.

Since then, we have had another three days of action at Leopardstown which provide further context for those Boxing Day efforts as well as for those which followed. It is worth looking at the headline figures for the four days in unison.

Timeform described the ground on the opening day as “good to soft” and on subsequent days as “soft”, though times suggest that there was little in it until the final day, when conditions were at their most testing.

The sectional distances from the third-last were taken to be 5.75f for hurdles and 4.4f for chases on all days, with finishing speed pars estimated at a fraction over 100% (finishes at the track tend to be slightly quicker than the average speed for the race overall).

In that context, Min’s 4m 10.1s in winning the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase on Wednesday, before he lost the race to Simply Ned in the stewards’ room, looks smart: it is nearly 3.0s quicker overall than Footpad the day before and 0.6s (about three lengths) quicker from three out.

It certainly compares quite well with the overall time and closing sectional of the race which preceded it, though one-on-one comparisons need to acknowledge that Tycoon Prince’s race involved two omitted fences.

The notably slow finish for the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle is in part down to two fallers and a ran out at the head of affairs in the closing stages, but Whiskey Sour’s individual finishing speed was just 97.6%, underlining that this turned into a thorough test of stamina for all concerned.

Well-run races were rarer on the two subsequent days, as reflected in the preponderance of high finishing speed %s.

If you were in any doubt as to how tactical was the Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle, won by Apple’s Jade, then an overall time that was 7.1s (around half a furlong) slower than the handicap which immediately preceded it and a closing sectional that was 1.0s per furlong quicker should leave you in no doubt.

Later on that day, the Leopardstown Christmas Chase served up a somewhat unpredictable result – especially in terms of 66/1-shot Balko des Flos being beaten just a length and a quarter by Road To Respect – but the 162 timefigure on the winner (highest of the week) and a near-to-par finishing speed of 102% suggests the form should be taken seriously.

The Ryanair (December) Hurdle on the final day proved a very weak affair once Faugheen was pulled up, and there is nothing in Mick Jazz’s overall time or closing sectional to suggest he has improved greatly.

Before moving on, it is well worth noting two standout bumper winners for Willie Mullins in Carefully Selected and Minella Encore. They are now Timeform’s top-two bumper horses on timefigures this season, and Minella Encore’s closing sectional (the same as the race sectional of 83.5s, as he was in the lead) points to his being Champion Bumper standard, at least when conditions are like they were here.

The aforementioned Min is now generally a longer price than Politologue for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, after the latter’s success in the Unibet Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on the day after Boxing Day. But time analysis suggests that is questionable at the very least.  

The Desert Orchid Chase was run in an overall time 2.1s (around 10 lengths) slower than the Grade 2 Novice Chase won by Cyrname (carrying 4 lb less) earlier on the card, when about the same difference might have been expected in the opposite direction.

The Novice Chase was strongly-run judged on Cyrname’s finishing speed of 95.7% (where around 98% is par), so what happened?

The early pace in the Desert Orchid was much faster than par for the conditions, and that applied to all four runners not just the leader Special Tiara (who often races in this manner). He departed at the eighth and it was slow-motion stuff thereafter.

Politologue was 5.5s (around 25 lengths) slower than Cyrname from that point, which is 6.5f from home. His two remaining rivals were even slower, but it has to be wondered if Politologue would have beaten Special Tiara had that one completed, or if he could have beaten another good-class horse (especially one ridden with restraint) had there been one in the field.

It is worth remembering also that Politologue had been slightly slower than the novice Sceau Royal when winning the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown earlier in December despite the two horses having got to the end of the back straight in much the same time.

The Champion Chase could well cut up, but Politologue has more to prove on the clock than his recent wins might make you think, and 3/1 ante post is much too short in my book.

The ground had turned to soft for that second day at Kempton and was if anything slower still at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, when the majority of races were quite well-run judged by finishing speed %s.

The efforts of Vyta du Roc and Wholestone stand out on time, with the latter’s defeat of Agrapart in the Relkeel Hurdle the fifth-fastest winning timefigure over hurdles of the season so far, behind Faugheen (169), Sam Spinner (166 and 155) and The New One (160).

The third-last flight on Cheltenham’s New Course is nearly a mile out and is at much the same elevation as the finish, which helps to explain those fairly quick finishing speed %s.

Three out on the chase course is more like 4f from home, from where the track rises about 30 feet to the winning line. Yanworth’s time in winning the BetBright Dipper Novices’ Chase would have been better but for a slow run-in (20.2s, compared to 18.9s and 19.0s for the other chases on the card), though this seemed to be down to his idling rather than tiring.

Yanworth’s time nonetheless compares well enough with the Handicap Chase won by Ballyhill soon after, with the two races level early on before the novices went around 10 lengths ahead.     

Timeform no longer provides detailed individual horse sectionals over jumps in its Sectional Archive – maybe British racing will one day get its act together and fund such a worthwhile enterprise – but race sectionals appear in Race Passes, and sophisticated analysis of both sectional and overall times continues to inform the wider jumps product. That has to be the way in the modern era.