Sectional Timing Debrief: Future Champions Festival 2017

History will tell whether or not this year’s Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket did what it said on the tin and identified future champions, but times – both overall ones and sectional ones – suggest the efforts of the winners of the main two-year-old races are well up to scratch.

Never mind “future” champions, both Laurens – winner of Friday’s Fillies’ Mile – and in particular U S Navy Flag – winner of Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes – now have claims to be considered as champions of the here and now among their own age and sex.

Those times were historically fast across the two days, on account of a sound surface and a fair few well-run races, but even more so on account of the assistance of a significant wind.

A number of course records and age-group records fell on the Saturday. The ground was not lightning fast, but it was probably faster than the official description of “good”.

U S Navy Flag was one of those record-breakers in leading home a remarkable 1, 2, 3, 4 for trainer Aidan O’Brien in the Dewhurst, and he did it by going hard from the front and running the finish out of his rivals, as the following sectionals – derived from sophisticated video analysis – show.

Those individual finishing speed %s (speed in last 3f as a % of average speed for race overall) are all slower than the course-and-distance par, if not greatly so. But the real damage came in that final furlong, which U S Navy Flag ran in 13.0s (90.5% FS) and others even slower.

Some particularly sharp mid-race sectionals, including three successive ones under 11.0s, meant there was no hiding place, and the two expected to be U S Navy Flag’s biggest dangers – Emaraaty and Expert Eye – wilted, the latter found to be lame behind afterwards.

U S Navy Flag might have been left with not a great deal to beat, but he beat them handsomely, and his overall time of 82.37s will produce easily the fastest Timeform timefigure on the card. Whether or not it surpasses Clemmie’s age-group-leading 118 timefigure in the Cheveley Park Stakes on this course last month will be confirmed after the weekend. 

U S Navy Flag’s overall time certainly measures up well against the other two-year-old 7f race on the card, a nursery won by the useful Rufus King, who would have been out the back in the Dewhurst had his performance been superimposed on that race.

Interestingly, Rufus King ran the last two furlongs in 11.25s then 12.6s – both faster than the Dewhurst winner – having failed to break 11.0s earlier in the race.

U S Navy Flag is likely to need to be ridden a bit less aggressively at a mile to ensure that his early speed does not get trumped by something with superior stamina in next year’s 2000 Guineas.

Here are the headline sectional figures for all of Saturday’s Newmarket races.

While Kew Gardens’ overall time in winning the Listed Zetland Stakes was an age-group record, it was nothing special in the context of the conditions at a rarely-used distance. But his closing sectional was fast – over a second faster than U S Navy Flag’s at 3f shorter – and talk of his making into a Derby/St Leger horse next year is by no means far-fetched.

Kew Gardens’ effort was marginally better on sectionals than Ghaiyyath’s in winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes shortly after.

The fillies had had their chance the day before in a Fillies’ Mile that resulted in similar finishing speed %s to the Dewhurst but had been run slightly more evenly prior to that.

Laurens made all and was hanging on at the death, while September closed well having been caught in traffic in the penultimate furlong. The headline sectionals show everything was slower than par from 3f out, but September made up about three lengths in that final furlong and can be considered unlucky.

The aforementioned Clemmie is the best of the two-year-old fillies seen so far, but her stable-companion September may not be far behind on this sort of ground, while Laurens goes from strength to strength: the last-named ran too fast a time here for this to be regarded as a fluke despite her double-figure odds.

There are no one-on-one comparisons with other mile races on the Friday, but the Newmarket Rowley Course is one at which Timeform standard times and sectional pars are particularly robust and the resulting figures can be trusted. There were, however, three 7f races, with Limato’s Challenge Stakes victory predictably the quickest of them, if not by as much as might have been expected.

Limato’s time was just 0.26s (less than two lengths) outside the older-horse course record, but a suicidal pace set by Gifted Master – who covered the opening half-mile from a standing start in an unsustainable 46.09s (including a second furlong of just 10.35s) – also blunted the finish of some of his more patiently-ridden rivals.

Limato’s sprinting speed meant he could travel comfortably held up and sweep through in the penultimate furlong. But he still managed to run the final one in 13.05s, or a finishing speed of just 90.0% when around 94% is par. Fortunately for him, nothing else had much to give by that stage.

That helps to account for why his overall time was not even quicker – a course record, perhaps – and was only 1.47s faster than recorded by the juvenile Altyn Orda in winning the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes earlier on the card.

The latter race was more evenly-paced – as can be seen from those headline FS%s – and Altyn Orda managed to run the final furlong 0.40s (about two and a half lengths) quicker than did Limato later.

Altyn Orda may have been a maiden before this, but her overall timefigure (104) and finishing sectionals suggest she is up to standard for a race of this nature.

One who finished even quicker was the maiden winner Veracious, whose 12.4s final furlong was the fastest on Friday but surpassed by Kew Gardens (12.15s) on the Saturday. The former’s overall time was modest – worth a timefigure of just 75 – but she does look a useful prospect.

There were, truth be told, not that many real stand-out performances on sectionals across the two days. But sectional analysis is about much more than just identifying individuals who may be worth backing next time.

Split times shine a light on the precise way in which races unfolded, whether being prominent or being held up should have helped, and whether stamina or speed was favoured. In the continued absence of widespread official sectional timing, British racing enthusiasts have to guess, or put in considerable graft themselves.

Or they could subscribe to the Timeform Sectional Archive, in which individual horse sectional times, finishing speed %s and upgrades appear for nearly all Flat races in Britain and Ireland. The Newmarket ones from the Future Champions Festival will appear there shortly.