Sectional Timing Debrief: 2000 and 1000 Guineas

There may be only one thing that sports fans like more than a proper showdown, and that is the prospect of a rematch when that proper showdown fails to be as definitive as had been hoped for.

No sooner had Anthony Joshua beaten Wladimir Klitschko in their heavyweight title fight at Wembley last month than there was talk of the two squaring up again. Both boxing fans and horseracing fans understand that one-off confrontations frequently leave scores still to be settled.

That is the situation with this year’s crop of classic colt milers, several of whom traded punches in Saturday’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and left many of the ringside judges uncertain as to how the fight should be scored.

The favourite Churchill emerged victorious, with another smooth victory, but behind him Barney Roy did well to get second having almost hit the canvas at one point and third-placed Al Wukair entered the fray too late to land a meaningful blow. Things did not go especially well for some of the others, further back, either.

Much of the post-race analysis is bound to be subjective – what sort of value do you put on failing to settle or on apparently doing just enough once you are in front? – but one aspect that need not be is the merit of the overall times and the sectionals that the horses recorded.

Timeform’s timefigure for the 2000 Guineas – which will be confirmed on Monday – is likely to be reasonable, and certainly better than might be expected of a race which proved to be so tactical. We know for sure that the latter is the case by looking at sectionals, though those sectionals are not official electronic ones – which do not exist – but ones that Timeform has had to gather itself.

Quite why British racing, which claims to be a world leader in the race-day experience, is further behind the rest of the world in this area than ever is perhaps a subject for another blog. It is to be hoped that the authorities start funding 21^st-century timing now that it looks as if it will be getting its hands on more revenue.

The time in this year’s 2000 Guineas was about 1.6s (around 10 lengths) behind par at halfway given the conditions, and that figure is for the leaders – Lancaster Bomber and Law And Order – while the rest were further adrift. By contrast, the closing stages were nearly that much quicker than par.

This is how those closing sectionals come out, including in terms of the all-important finishing speed %s (speed in closing sectional as a % of each horse’s average speed for the race overall).

All the runners finished quicker than par, and Al Wukair finished quickest of all, both in absolute terms with that 34.26s (39.4 mph) for the last 3f and in terms of that finishing speed %.

Barney Roy, Top Score and possibly even Dream Castle also ran the sectional slightly quicker than did Churchill, who enjoyed both a dream run up the rail and a position nearer to optimum than most of his rivals prior to that.

That is not to say that Churchill was a fortunate winner for sure: he scored by fully a length and probably had more up his sleeve. But he got the run of things more than his two main rivals, the connections of whom are entitled to fancy their chances of turning the tables another day.

The sectionals say that Al Wukair – who did a lot of running from 3f out until the last 100 yards in particular – can reverse the placings. But it is marginal and there are other factors to consider, as always. It will also be interesting to see if seventh-placed Top Score, who was set the most to do, can confirm himself the Group performer this effort suggests he is.

Where Churchill’s stamina for The Derby is concerned, this win did not do much to dispel doubts. Speed, and not just significant ability and a good ride, won him the race. He looks a miler to me.

Let’s have that rematch between Churchill, Barney Roy and Al Wukair: let’s “get it on”.

There are also reasons to believe that the best performer might not have won the QIPCO 1000 Guineas on Sunday. That is not down to sectionals – which tell a tale of an impressively fast overall time and some notably efficient pacing – but to the trouble encountered by the runner-up Rhododendron just as the winner went on.

This is how those times and sectionals look for the fillies’ race.

Those closing sectionals are slower than for the colts, but the overall time is 0.95s faster. Conditions were quicker on the Sunday than the Saturday (Going Stick reading of 8.8 compared to 8.4) but not greatly so.

Winter’s time is a decidedly smart one and underlines that she is a well-up-to-scratch winner of the race, for all that her victory was not widely anticipated. Do not underestimate her: indeed, do not underestimate any of the first four, who came clear of their rivals at the business end.

Rhododendron gets only a small mark-up for her sectional from 3f out, but she only really got going late on and made up about a length and a half in the final 100 yards. With electronic by-furlong sectionals, we could quantify and contextualise such things more precisely.

Ryan Moore got justifiable praise for his ride on Churchill on the Saturday: this time, it can be argued he lost a race he should have won.

Perhaps another rematch – Winter versus Rhododendron – is called for, though the former may remain at a mile while the latter looks likely to head to The Oaks at Epsom with extremely good credentials.

The two Guineas can be put into further context by comparison with other races over the two days, for which these are the headline figures.

The falsely-run races can be readily identified by those high finishing speed %s and substantial upgrades. Central Square (behind Playful Sound on Saturday) and Mainstream (behind Frontiersman on Sunday) were beaten horses who shaped as if their time was near.

The well-run races can also be identified readily by the lower finishing speed %s, smaller upgrades and good sectional ratings for the winners.

Marsha ran quickly (not for the first time) in winning the Palace House Stakes on Saturday, a race in which Priceless and Ornate paid somewhat for helping to force a strong pace. Mr Lupton got a perfect set-up in coming from a few lengths back to run a smart time in winning the Longholes Handicap on Sunday.

Seventh Heaven had looked a bit lacking in tactical speed at times in 2016 but not in winning a steadily-run Jockey Club Stakes on Saturday. Horseplay showed similar pace in landing the Pretty Polly Stakes on Sunday, but her overall time becomes only useful once her sectionals are factored in.

There is a huge amount of information to be considered from even one-off manual sectionals. Those overall performances and overall times look quite a bit different in some instances once sectionals have been factored in.

For the full picture, the place to go is Timeform’s unique Sectional Archive, which is updated regularly with data from the vast majority of races in Britain and Ireland, on the Flat and over jumps.