Sectional Preview: Yorkshire Ebor Festival 2016

One of the great myths in horseracing is that York “is” a front-runners’ track. Leaving aside the fact that pace varies on a by-race basis – and should therefore be viewed on a by-race basis rather than in general terms where possible – there is little evidence to support the claim.

That is “little”, rather than none, however. While the generalisation – which seemed to originate in the media some years ago and to have been fuelled by confirmation bias since – is easily countered, the data suggests that there may be some truth in it in at specific distances.

York is slightly worse than average for British turf tracks for prominent-racers taken overall, but better for horses with such run styles at sprint distances. It follows that it is quite a bit worse than average for races at 7f and further.

The % of rivals beaten in handicaps for horses with a Timeform Early Position Figure of 1 (indicating a pace-forcer) is: 47.3% at 10f plus at York, when 50.0% is the national average; 51.4% at 7f to 9.99f at York, when 53.9% is the national average; and 61.7% at 5f to 6.99f at York when 55.3% is the national average.

York is a notably flat track, with just a few minor undulations, and front-runners do not always come back on its speedy, straight, sprint course. Going from the front has been more difficult, in relative terms, for races which start on the round course, with its long, galloping bends. But it should again be emphasised that individual races can produce widely varying individual pace scenarios.

Against this backdrop, we can look at what the sectionals and likely pace profiles tell us to expect from some of the major races at York’s prestigious Ebor Festival this week. However you tackle the four days, there is no doubt that it promises to be an exceptional occasion for the racing enthusiast.

WEDNESDAY

The Juddmonte International Stakes on the opening day is one of the world’s great horseraces, and this year’s edition does not disappoint. Postponed is the best horse trained in Europe on Timeform ratings and the joint-third-best horse anywhere in the world. Predictably, he is favourite, but how will he cope with the shorter distance of 10.4f?

Sectionals suggest he will cope very well: not only is Postponed an improved performer, he is a quicker performer now. Postponed ran the closing sectional of his Coronation Stakes win at Epsom, admittedly on a downhill track, in a time which equates to an average speed of well over 40 mph.

A “slow” horse could not have done anything like that, even off what had been a steady earlier pace, and Postponed was far too swift for rivals who included the high-class filly Found. Postponed has missed a significant engagement since, and his stable is going through a rather quiet spell, but he has a pacemaker in King Bolete and at his best is highly likely to win this.

Almodovar and Highland Reel are others who could ensure the pace of this year’s International will be honest, and that should suit The Grey Gatsby better than the pedestrian gallop (and poor field position) he suffered when second at Newmarket last time. The Grey Gatsby lacks the class of Postponed but looks the best of the longer-priced horses here and is worth a small each-way play.  

Hawkbill has won his last six races and comes into the reckoning on his defeat of The Gurkha in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown last time. That was not a particularly impressive race on sectionals, however, and Hawkbill’s form is on ground softer than he is likely to encounter here.

Highland Reel got the run of things from the front when winning at Ascot last time but should again have the measure over the runner-up that day, Wings of Desire, who shapes like a good St Leger contender. My Dream Boat has shown an impressive turn of foot in steadily-run races but could be stretched by this, as could Mutakayyef stepping back up from a mile.

The Betway Great Voltigeur is a little disappointing by comparison. It looks to provide a good opportunity for Idaho – who has often impressed on sectionals, either by going too quickly or too slowly early on – but a small field increases the chance of a false pace and result.

THURSDAY

It is not clear at the time of writing whether the same remark will apply to the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on the second day. Either way, Furia Cruzada has been a victim of pace/tactics more than once recently and might just have won the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock last time otherwise according to sectionals. A Grade 1 winner in South America, she could well go off over-priced against more feted rivals.

Trying to find something to beat Fair Eva in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes could prove a pointless task: the daughter of Frankel has both good overall times and good sectionals to her name but will go off very short in the betting.

A number of her rivals at the five-day stage crossed swords in the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket, and sectionals suggest the runner-up there, Magical Fire, can emerge just about best of them. The likely shape of the market lends itself to an opportunistic each-way bet.

FRIDAY

Good though the opening day’s International Stakes is, it could still be upstaged by Friday’s Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes, a “blink-and-you-miss-it” race of the highest calibre. Some very fast horses could go in this, including the speedy Yalta – helped by the remarkably generous allowance for two-year-olds – and the July Cup winner Limato.

But best of them all on overall and sectional times is last year’s winner Mecca’s Angel, who shaped like she was back in the same form when scooting up at the Curragh last time. She covered the last 3f that day in 32.62s (41.4 mph), which is easily the fastest sectional at the course in recent times (Caravaggio ran 33.29s a few weeks later).

Mecca’s Angel may not run if connections believe the ground is too firm, but she emphatically does not need it soft. Her winning time last year of 57.24s was just 1.08s outside Dayjur’s 1990 course record. She is worth a win bet if declared.

SATURDAY

The Betfred Ebor Handicap on the final day looks a tough contest to crack, but the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes 35 minutes earlier presents Blue Point with a perfect chance to get back to winning ways.

The Godolphin youngster put up one of the time performances of the season so far when winning at Doncaster in July by 11 lengths despite going steadily (for him, but not for his rivals) early on. His sectionals suggested the sky could be the limit for him, but he was found out by inexperience against the streetwise Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last time.

The likes of Mokarris, Intelligence Cross and Mubtasim have plenty to recommend them on sectionals, but Blue Point should be given another chance to prove that he is something pretty special.    

Recommendations: THE GREY GATSBY (e/w); FURIA CRUZADA (e/w); MAGICAL FIRE (e/w); MECCA’S ANGEL (win, if declared); BLUE POINT (win)