Sectional Preview: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016

While all horseracing roads on the first weekend in October usually lead to Longchamp in the Bois de Boulogne on the western outskirts of Paris, this year they lead some 30 miles to the north to Chantilly, which stages the Arc de Triomphe Meeting while the traditional venue gets a makeover.

Both tracks are sweeping and right-handed, though Chantilly is less undulating than Longchamp, yet with more of an incline from the home turn. There is a longer run at Chantilly than at Longchamp to the first significant bend in races at 2400 metres, and I would not anticipate a significant draw bias in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe itself, though it is difficult to be sure.

As it is, Chantilly’s track will be familiar to some of the main equine contenders for the big race, for the recognised Arc Trials were run there just under a month ago. A quick analysis of those three races seems a good place to start in any Sectional Preview of Sunday’s action. Let’s look at what the winners achieved.

All three of the races were slowly-run, as indicated by those high finishing speed %s (the individual horses’ speeds in the last 600 metres compared to their average speeds for the race overall). “Par” for course and distance can be expected to be – and indeed seems to be – a bit over 100%.

There are substantial upgrades for each of the trio, but the crucial thing to remember is that those are upgrades to the timefigures they achieved on overall time. Makahiki was fastest at the business end, but his overall time was a lot slower than Left Hand’s and Silverwave’s. 

It should also be noted that whatever upgrade Makahiki gets, the horse who finished a very close third to him in the Prix Niel – Doha Dream – gets one nearly as big. Doha Dream (115.6% finishing speed) had previously done no better than win in listed company in the French Provinces.

Makahiki is a likeable colt, who has a chance in the Arc on his win in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and who could be getting better, but his sectional in the Niel was no more than might have been expected of a low-120s horse.

If there was an Arc winner on show that day, then it was arguably the three-year-old filly Left Hand, who ran significantly faster overall than Makahiki and only 0.23s (about a length and a half) slower than him from the home turn. The filly is around three times the colt’s price.

The likelihood is that the winner will come from elsewhere, and “boring” though it is, easily the best contender on sectional (as well as other) grounds is the favourite Postponed.

The five-year-old recorded the fastest timefigure (128) of the year at distances beyond five furlongs when winning the International Stakes at York last time and had run a stunning 11.1s/f (40.5 mph)  sectional from the turn when trouncing Found in the Coronation Cup at Epsom the time before that.

Postponed has stamina and a lot more speed than some recognise, plus bundles of class. I see no reason to desert him, for all that his odds have contracted significantly. Left Hand is also worth a small interest given her odds.

In general, Timeform does not do detailed sectional coverage of racing outside Britain and Ireland, so analysis of other runners and other races on Arc Day needs to be viewed in that context.

What can seemingly be said with confidence is that Britain and Ireland have a fairly strong hand in the Prix Marcel Boussac, the first of the big races at Chantilly on Sunday. This includes the highly promising and unbeaten pair of Dabyah and Wuheida, but in sectional terms the Aidan O’Brien-trained Promise To Be True has achieved more to date.

The Galileo filly put up a useful time performance when winning the Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown and was better than the result when fifth to Intricately in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last time, set a bit to do in a somewhat tactical affair and not knocked about when held. A more prominent showing can be expected from Promise To Be True here.

What can also seemingly be said with confidence is that the one British-trained and two Irish-trained two-year-olds in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere do not look up to the usual winning standard: this could be a race to watch.

The Prix de l’Opera provides a good opportunity for John Gosden’s So Mi Dar to make it five wins out of five against some less-than-stellar rivals. So Mi Dar won well in a superior listed race at Yarmouth last time, though the runner-up that day (Nezwaah) ran an even better late sectional than did she.

So Mi Dar was perhaps even more taking in landing the Musidora Stakes at York the time before, when putting in a sharp last three furlongs. She looks to be equipped with the requisite speed if the Opera turns into a tactical affair again.

There is no doubt who is the best runner in the Prix de l’Abbaye. Mecca’s Angel has the fastest Timeform timefigure of the year, plus some blistering sectionals at the Curragh and York, and is a simply outstanding five-furlong performer on her day.

Anyone looking to oppose her has to hope she is not at her best for whatever reason – something which happened at Royal Ascot this year – though there is also the chance of a draw bias and/or a pace burnout with some real trailblazers in opposition.

One worth a second look is Marsha, who ran a 125 sectional at York when only 0.11s slower than Mecca’s Angel was in the Nunthorpe the following month when winning a listed race in July. It has not entirely worked out for Marsha in two runs since, but the course might have been to blame at Goodwood on the first occasion, and it may be worth remembering that the Abbaye has a recent history of turn-ups, perhaps a consequence of its late-season timing.

Things look set fair for Limato to go one better than 12 months ago in the Prix de la Foret. But, at what will presumably be prohibitive odds, it is tempting to take him on with Suedois, at least as a back-to-lay proposition. Suedois was second to Limato in the July Cup at Newmarket and did too much too soon – as sectionals showed – when third in the Sprint Cup at Haydock last time.

In addition to needing to find a couple of lengths, stamina is the issue with Suedois, though he did start his career at a mile and has won at an extended seven furlongs. It is very easy to see him going well for a long way, and, who knows, maybe lasting home in front.