Sectional Debrief: St Leger and Irish Champion Stakes 2016

Whether or not the St Leger truly merits its status as a Group 1 on ratings – and recent evidence is that is at least borderline – it has a knack of serving up drama and intrigue in line with its historic standing as the oldest classic in the world.

This year’s edition, sponsored by Ladbrokes, lacked strength in depth, with the Derby third and Irish Derby second Idaho at odds-on in a field of nine. And it lost that significant contender early in the straight when the colt dramatically took a false step and unseated his rider. The outsider Ormito had also stumbled a couple of furlongs before.

Idaho looked poised to challenge at the time, just behind the leaders and going comfortably, but there was still nearly half a mile of the extended trip to go, and that would have taken him into uncharted territory. What we do know, through times and sectionals, is that there would have been no hiding place for a horse of suspect stamina.

The 2016 St Leger represented a significant test from the outset. On ground which looked “good” on overall times, rather than firmer, Muntahaa served up generous fractions and suffered somewhat for it at the business end. The stout stayer Harbour Law – already Group-placed over fully two miles – came from second-last to get up in the last 50 yards for a shock at 22/1.

The overall time and individual sectionals for the race do, however, suggest that the form should be taken seriously, even though Harbour Law’s winning effort looks slightly substandard.

Those behind the first three emptied out late on – as shown by their finishing speeds (closing speed as a % of average race speed) of well under 100% – but the principals saw things out well and the time of 3m 05.48s compares favourably enough with others on the card and with others in recent history.

Sectionals of over 38s for the last 3f and over 26s for the last 2f are a second or two slower than is customary for the St Leger and underline how stamina really came into play late on. That is not always the case in this race, as Rule of Law illustrated under a brilliant Kerrin McEvoy front-running ride when winning in 2004 with a final quarter that was under 24s.

There is not a great deal more to say about this year’s St Leger from a time analysis point of view. It was what it was intended to be: a good test of staying three-year-olds. The form should hold up, but it is not top-class, and the first three are likely to be vulnerable at this level if returned to shorter. Muntahaa would have fared better asked to do a bit less earlier, but perhaps not by a great deal. Idaho would almost certainly have won had he stayed.  

Where the 2016 St Leger fits in with the rest of Saturday’s Doncaster card can be seen from the “race” sectionals (time lapse for leader at sectional and leader – that is, winner – at the line) on the day.

The Portland Handicap won by Captain Colby and the concluding handicap won by Gold Trail were also truly-run (see those finishing speed %s), but the other races were not so much. Soie d’Leau and Pipers Note get marked up more than most in the former.

Rivet gets that useful sectional rating in landing the Champagne Stakes thanks to a 34.72s last 3f which was fastest of all on the day. This does not look a strong renewal of a race which can throw up a top-notcher, but Rivet did well to run down Thunder Snow, who got things his way to a degree.

The nursery won by Khalidi was run in a similar fashion, and the first three in it get sectional ratings comfortably in advance of their handicap marks as a result of their fast finishes.

An old racing saying is that “Autumn rides in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger”, that dubious honour going to The Tartan Spartan this year. Judged by events over at Leopardstown a little later, Autumn looks like being pretty exciting.

The South Dublin track hosted five Group races on the first day of an Irish Champions Weekend which has quickly become established as a horseracing event of global consequence, including the QIPCO Irish Champion with over a million Euros in prize money.

It succeeded in attracting a stellar cast, including an Eclipse winner from Britain in Hawkbill and a Prix du Jockey Club winner from France in Almanzor, and it was the latter who came out on top in impressive style.

That Almanzor and runner-up Found both came from behind raised the possibility that the race had been set up for them by an overly-strong pace, but sectionals do not really support that.

At least as valid is the suggestion that coming wide (as late closers often do) might have helped them somewhat. Alice Springs had done likewise when winning the Matron Stakes earlier on the card, and the concluding handicap winner, Colour Blue, romped home down the centre also.

Leopardstown is not the easiest course to analyse sectionally, as it has an outer track (on which this race was run) and an inner track (on which the first four races on Saturday were run) which are not usually identified in data feeds. But we can be confident that finishing speeds of 106.8% and 105.4% indicate that the first two were running quickly at the end and not just that the remainder were stopping.

Taking a positive view of the aforementioned Alice Springs win gets Almanzor’s time well into the 120s by comparison, and he gets a bit more added on for the speed of that finish. There are doubts about the colt’s stamina for a further 2f in the Arc, but fewer now than there were: not only was this a truly-run 10f, times suggest the ground was softer than “good”, especially on the outer track.

Early pace-forcers Success Days and Ebediyin paid late on but are not up to this class anyway. Harzand was never going and later reported to have been struck into behind, possibly in an early incident in which both Minding and Hawkbill were hampered. Minding was short of room again approaching the straight and ended up on the possibly slower inside.

None of this should detract much, if at all, from the performance of Almanzor, who has now built up an impressive CV. He took the scalps of several high-class performers here, including a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner back to her best in Found.

The sectionals say that Almanzor was as good as he looked, or possibly even better, and that is very good indeed.

Individual sectionals, finishing speeds and upgrades for all other races at Leopardstown and other meetings in Britain and Ireland can be found in Timeform’s Sectional Archive.