Sectional Debrief: Pre-Cheltenham Festival

A few weeks have passed since the last Sectional and Timing Debrief on these pages, and we are that much closer to a Cheltenham Festival at which the claims of various protagonists will be put to the test where it matters most. Now seems a good juncture to take a quick overview of what has passed in between from a timing point of view.

Perhaps the most important afternoon’s racing came at Newbury on 11 February, when Altior ran a fast overall time in beating seasoned chasers in the Game Spirit Chase and Native River saw off two rivals in the Denman Chase.

The former looks impregnable among two-mile novices over larger obstacles but it was actually the latter who ran faster late on – around four lengths faster from three out – despite racing at nearly seven furlongs further in total.

Native River does not have an overall time which justifies his being favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but this effort should have buried the notion that he is just a one-dimensional plodder.

On the same card, Ballyandy ran fast overall, and several lengths faster up the run-in than other hurdling winners, in landing the Betfair Hurdle narrowly from Movewiththetimes.

Leopardstown staged the Irish Gold Cup card the next day, with the big race going to Sizing John, who has emerged from the shadow of Douvan since trying longer distances.

Sectionals show that this was a test of speed more than stamina – the run-in of just over a furlong was completed several lengths quicker than the other two chases on the card – and doubts exist about the strength of the form and the winner’s stamina for even further.

Times and sectionals suggest that both Disko and Mega Fortune were as good as they looked in supporting races, with the latter benefiting from a no-nonsense ride which made good use of his stamina (he was about 20 lengths ahead of the winner of the handicap at halfway) and having had his form franked since.

The following weekend, Cue Card bounced back from his substandard run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day with an emphatic win in the Betfair Ascot Chase.

It would be perverse to crab a 15-length success in a Grade 1 from a horse who has the best staying chase time of the season (in the Betfair Chase at Haydock), but consider this: there was a chase winner on the same card who ran a faster average speed and significantly faster closing sectionals than Cue Card despite covering nearly three furlongs further in all.

That horse was Tenor Nivernais, winner of a listed handicap off a BHA mark of 152 in a time nearly half a furlong quicker than recorded by Bigbadjohn in winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at the same course and distance shortly before.

There may be doubts about Tenor Nivernais’ suitability for the Grand National at Aintree, and some incredulity as to where this effort suddenly came from, but there should be none about how spectacular an effort this was against the clock. It is a shame he is not in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Yanworth failed to impress all in a workmanlike success in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on the same day, but he did so in a smart time (as had been the case when he won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton) and under speed-favouring conditions unlikely to have played to his strengths: at least the Champion Hurdle looks like being a true test.

That last comment should have heightened relevance if connections of Limini choose to go for that race rather than softer alternatives. The mare’s listed win at Punchestown on 22 February came in a time far faster than the other two 20f hurdle races on the card and with a particularly swift sectional from the last.

This defeat of the highly able Apple’s Jade was another performance that was every bit as good as it appeared when subjected to time analysis.

Limini would get a 7-lb sex allowance if she lined up in the Champion Hurdle, and the importance of that can be seen by her standing in the best time performances in various categories over the last six months. Go on: roll those big, fluffy, pink and green dice.

Some of the more appealing bets with the Cheltenham Festival in mind have been and gone already (Thistlecrack was previously put up as a lay for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on account of times), but a non-runner/no bet play on Limini for the Champion Hurdle still appeals.

Elsewhere, that high-class timefigure by Bristol de Mai – recorded in his Peter Marsh Chase romp – makes him over-priced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup: he was found to be lame after finishing last of three to Native River at Newbury since.

Top Notch ran a good overall time and a strong closing sectional when winning the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown on 04 February and looks a solid proposition for the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Festival.

Neon Wolf ran quicker – both overall and from three out – than did The New One when both contested two-mile hurdles at Haydock in January, and could easily be the best prospect among the novice hurdlers.

You will search in vain for the names of Melon (Supreme Novices’), Finian’s Oscar (Neptune Novices’) and Carter McKay (Champion Bumper) on those lists. All have been quite short prices for their likely engagements at the Festival (Melon has recently drifted), but none has run a fast time.

That does not mean they are bad horses – none of them has had much opportunity to date – but it does mean that they are likely to encounter a much sterner test in a couple of weeks’ time. The Festival tends to be unforgiving of any deficiencies.

There is just over a fortnight to go before events get under way at Prestbury Park – and the precise state of the going and the precise composition of the fields can only be guessed at – but the clock-related advice at this stage is as follows:

Win back: LIMINI (Champion Hurdle NRNB), TOP NOTCH (JLT Chase), BRISTOL DE MAI (Cheltenham Gold Cup).

Place lay: FINIAN’S OSCAR (Neptune Novices’), CARTER MCKAY (Champion Bumper).