Sectional Debrief: Newmarket's July Festival

“Proper summer ground”, involving going firmer than good and a minimal amount of watering, seems to have gone out of fashion in Britain in recent times, so it was pleasing to have one of the main festivals run on it from start to finish for a change.

The Newmarket July Meeting opened on ground officially described as “good to firm, good in places” and ended up on exclusively “good to firm”, with times throughout suggesting conditions were at least that firm. The course executive deserves credit for providing a safe and fair surface, and for issuing regular useful updates on the state of play.

Such fast conditions made for some fast times, of course, especially on the Friday when a tailwind speeded things further. But fast times also require truly-run races.

Some races were, and some races were not: fortunately, thanks to TurfTrax electronic sectionals and good camerawork, it is possible to sort the wheat from the chaff and to figure out exactly which performances were meritorious on the clock and which were less so.

The stand-out effort on Thursday was that of Lumiere, whose 95.74s for the straight mile was only a fraction outside the course record at the time. Her win was in just a listed race, but it came by six lengths and with closing sectionals that were fast enough to lead to a further upgrade from her 119 timefigure.

Lumiere has been talked up as high-class on and off during her career, and on this occasion it looked entirely justified. She has speed to burn and saw out the longer trip in exemplary fashion.

Four races at six furlongs made for some easy comparisons. Dancing Star’s handicap win was the quickest of the quartet in absolute terms, but Mehmas is only a two-year-old and his time in winning the Group 2 July Stakes looks especially solid in that context.

Mehmas has a thoroughly professional way of doing things already, and he came from a bit off a sound pace to score readily, his own last 3f of 34.80s representing a finishing speed (compared to his average race speed) of 101.9% which was all but bang on peak efficiency. It is impossible to forget, however, that Caravaggio beat him emphatically at Royal Ascot despite possibly not having the run of the race.

“The run of the race” was all-important in the day’s feature, the Princess of Wales’s Stakes. Big Orange got it under a fine ride from New Zealander James McDonald to repeat his win from 12 months before, while the Jamie Spencer-partnered runner-up The Grey Gatsby did not.

Big Orange got to dictate very soft fractions before banging in a 45.8s half-mile from 5f out to 1f out. The Grey Gatsby was nearly 10 lengths back when the pace quickened and did extremely well to close to just two and a half lengths down (his own half-mile time was an extremely swift 44.78s) before making no further headway in the final furlong.

Big Orange is a very smart performer, as he has shown more than once, but sectional analysis suggests that The Grey Gatsby was unlucky here.

Tailwind or no tailwind, that time for Alice Springs in winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes is quite something. It broke the previous mile record – set by Lovers Knot in this race in 1998 – by over a second and featured three sub-11.0s individual furlongs.

Alice Springs was helped by the poor efforts of the uneasy favourite Usherette and the previous year’s winner Amazing Maria, but there is no escaping the fact that she really got it together here on firmer going and under a more positive ride than has sometimes been the case.

A clash between her and Lumiere would be something to witness, with sectionals suggesting there would be little in it between two very classy fillies.

All other times on day two suffered in comparison, but Roly Poly’s in the Cherry Hinton Stakes (it will always be the Cherry Hinton Stakes to me) was decent enough in view of some uneven fractions.

The entire field came back quickly for the conditions, with both the winner (33.91s according to TurfTrax) and runner-up Magical Fire (33.77s) breaking 34.0s. Magical Fire’s penultimate furlong was the quickest of all in the race (10.69s) and suggests there is even less in it between the pair than on paper.

A small amount of watering and a change in wind direction rendered times on the final day of Newmarket’s July Meeting somewhat slower. It was still no mean feat for Limato to break 70.0s (just) in winning the Group 1 July Cup, which he could do only with a true pace and a high-class performance.

Comparisons with past July Cups show that this year’s edition was especially quick early on. Limato tracked the pace comfortably before forging on in the penultimate furlong and was soon in little danger despite hanging right. The final furlong was relatively slow – if less so for the winner than the beaten horses – as that early pace finally began to tell.

Nonetheless, dividing the race into two halves shows that Limato ran very close to optimum efficiency, with a finishing speed % of 101.8. His rivals came back a bit slower, relative to their own overall times, and a few of them encountered trouble, but there is nothing to suggest other than that Limato was clearly the best.

The July Cup had been won 12 months before by Muhaarar, who only just got up but who went on to be Champion Sprinter (and a good one at that). Limato may take a rather different path, and has a little more to do to prove that he is as good, but this was a most authoritative performance.

It should be remembered that Limato first aroused the “sectionalistas” when running remarkably quick fractions at Kempton on his second start, in 2014. He has been exciting them on and off ever since!

Boynton’s win in the preceding Group 2 Superlative Stakes must raise hopes of the colt having a major say in the top two-year-old races in the remainder of the season, but the overall time is useful rather than better. Both Boynton and runner-up War Decree ran quite quickly late on and can be rated a length or two better than the result.

The nursery won by Pleaseletmewin was the slowest of the four 7f races on the closing-day card but was quicker than all bar the Bunbury Cup in the first half-mile, and that sectional rating includes a sizeable upgrade for a fast-early/slow-late profile. 

The opening maiden promised to be above-average beforehand and it says plenty for both Dabyah and runner-up Amabilis that they came well clear in a decent time and with quick closing sectionals. The winner even managed to run the penultimate furlong 0.04s quicker than Limato went on to do at 1f shorter later on!

Sectional analysis applies to all races, good and bad, as subscribers to Timeform’s Sectional Archives will already know. In addition to the performances already called out, the following are worth a special mention from this year’s Newmarket July Meeting:

Suffragette City ran the fastest closing sectional of all when sixth to Easy Victory on the opening day and comes out second-best to that filly after upgrading; Mont Kiara managed a never-nearer fifth against a pace bias in the 6f handicap won by Dancing Star on the same day; Dubai Hero, D’bai and Hyde Park – the first three in the opening maiden on Friday – all finished quickly and are potentially useful; and fifth-placed Spiritous looks to have done especially well in that final-day nursery, having done far too much too soon.