Sectional Debrief: Newmarket Future Champions Meeting 2016

“Future Champions” is a beguiling title for the Newmarket Meeting at the beginning of October. It, rightly, implies that horses of Champion calibre will be on display, while at the same time hinting that only the Future will firmly identify which of the dozens of hopefuls deserve that accolade. The Champions of the here and now may ultimately be overtaken. 

This year’s two-dayer did at least seem to deliver on a Champion or two of the here and now, though what its enduring legacy will be remains uncertain. In attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff, it is worth using all the tools at our disposal, which includes time analysis, and, in particular, sectional-timing analysis.

TurfTrax provided electronic sectionals for races across both days, but Timeform does so day in, day, out for nearly all races in Britain and Ireland, Flat and jumps, and the figures quoted here are ones it sourced independently from advanced video analysis.

Understandably, much of the attention was on the two Group 1s for two-year-olds, the Dubai Fillies’ Mile on the Friday and the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes on the Saturday, both of which provided convincing winners for trainer Aidan O’Brien, if in rather contrasting style.

This is what the headline figures look like for those two races:

Perhaps the most important numbers here are those finishing speed %s, which are the individual horses’ speeds for the last three furlongs compared to their average speeds for the race overall. A figure over 100% indicates that the horse in question was finishing faster than its average speed, and one under 100% indicates the opposite.

It can be seen immediately that the Fillies’ race largely featured horses finishing slowly, while the Dewhurst was the opposite. By implication, the former was strongly-run, while the latter was steadily-run. Those “upgrade” figures result from the difference between these finishing speed %s and the “par” for the course and distance.

The pace proved too much for the also-rans in the former contest and helped to give rise to some notably long margins between the finishers. That said, the first three were close to par, with the winner, Rhododendron (who was last at the sectional but close up), even managing to finish a bit more quickly than it.

With minimal upgrades for those close up, the sectional ratings for the principals in the Fillies’ Mile are similar to their timefigures based on overall time. The Fillies’ Mile was run in a decent time, but not a great one.

The timing conclusion from the race is that Rhododendron is smart, but that she was not quite as superior as the result makes her look in a race in which much of her opposition faded away. Come the 1000 Guineas next spring, it will be worth remembering that it took a strongly-run contest at a mile for her to appear quite this dominant in the autumn of her two-year-old season.

The Dewhurst Stakes is perhaps more interesting. While not slowly-run, every colt which contested it had energy still to burn in the closing stages.

Churchill was fastest of all in absolute terms late on (and around nine lengths quicker in the last 3f than Rhododendron had been 24 hours before) and a deserving winner. But those sectionals confirm the visual impression that third-placed Blue Point was next-best and that the runner-up, Lancaster Bomber, got the run of things to a degree up front.

Lancaster Bomber is a stable-mate of Churchill’s, of course. As one wag on Twitter observed, “that is not the first time that Churchill has been helped out by a Lancaster Bomber”.

Churchill, the horse, showed an impressive mix of speed and stamina – needing the former to get out of trouble in the penultimate furlong – and predictably shortened further in the betting for next year’s 2000 Guineas.

But this was not quite the stellar performance some made it. The runner-up had been well beaten in Group races previously, third-placed Blue Point failed to get home, and others were more about potential than achievement beforehand, with Seven Heavens particularly inconvenienced by being held up in last.

Easily the best horse Churchill had beaten previously – Mehmas in the National Stakes on his previous start – had run like a blatant non-stayer, also.

Still, Churchill keeps beating what is put in front of him, and this year’s Dewhurst does confirm that he has the speed you would look for in a classic miler.

All these sectionals and overall times need to be viewed in the context of the conditions which gave rise to them, of course. Wider time analysis points to the ground being slightly quicker than good on the Friday and a bit quicker again on the Saturday. Two juvenile course records fell, though both at distances seldom used by good youngsters.

The headline figures across the two days – with those finishing speed %s now for the races themselves, rather than just the winners – are as follows:

It can be seen that the races won by Scarlet Dragon and Laganore on the Friday, and by Muffri’ha on the Saturday, were steadily-run and resulted in fast finishes, especially the last-named.

Laganore did particularly well to sweep through from last in a race in which her rivals were not stopping, running the last 3f in 34.32s (108.8%). Cosmeapolitan (35.98s, 107.4%) – ninth to Scarlet Dragon under a notably inefficient ride – is one to keep the faith with also.

Other notable sectional performances were put up by Unforgetable Filly (35.16s, 104.6%) in third behind Poet’s Vanity and by Zainhom (34.97s, 104.5%) in second behind Best Solution.

But two of the most eye-catching efforts were undoubtedly posted in victory by John Gosden-trained two-year-olds. Astronomy’s Choice quickened nicely on her debut on the Friday and promises to be at least useful, but Coronet was even more impressive in landing the listed Zetland Stakes on the Saturday.

This was one of those two little-used juvenile course records, but Coronet’s time compares very well with older-horse benchmarks also, and the way she won – surging through from the rear with a 35.57s (103.6%) last 3f – suggests there should be quite a bit more to come from her.

The Zetland Stakes does not have an especially glorious record, but it was moved 12 months ago to this earlier slot, and this year’s event looks worth taking a more positive of. Could Coronet be a “Champion”? Well, that overall time and that closing sectional suggests it is not out of the question.

As always, the fuller story on every horse in every race can be found in Timeform’s Sectional Archive.