Sectional Debrief: Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 2016

The past three days have seen some excellent action at the Cambridgeshire Meeting on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile Course: in particular, there have been a number of significant contests for two-year-olds.

In normal circumstances, the picture involving the youngsters might be a lot clearer now than it was. But that is arguably not the case following a series of upsets. As always, time analysis – and especially sectional-timing analysis – helps to make sense of what went on.

Timeform takes its own sectionals – for the vast majority of performances, Flat and jumps, day in and day out – from video analysis and publishes these in its extensive Sectional Archive.

That is why the following figures concentrate on last-3f sectionals, which could all be derived – readily and accurately – from the pictures available. However, TurfTrax provided more detailed electronic sectionals for this particular meeting, and some reference to those will also be made.

There were five Group races in all for two-year-olds across the three days, starting with the Group 3 Somerville Tattersalls Stakes on Thursday.

It is quite a while since the race produced a genuinely good horse, and this year’s contest will probably be no exception. Escobar was thought to be the likeliest candidate (went off at 6/5) but ran as if amiss. The sectionals suggest that connections of third-placed Sir Dancealot are the ones who should take the most encouragement.

The race, which resulted in a bunched finish, was steadily-run, as can be seen from those finishing speed %s (each horse’s speed in the final 3f compared to its speed for the race overall). “Par” for a 7f race (derived from all races at the course which resulted in fast times) is a bit over 100%, and every runner exceeded that.

Sir Dancealot was fastest of all, with a 34.54s last 3f and a 105.4% finishing speed, and his upgrade (derived in turn from the difference between actual finishing speed % and that par finishing speed %) suggests that he was the “moral” winner.

That is not to take much away from Larchmont Lad and Whitecliffsofdover, who get smaller but still significant mark-ups and who look to be useful performers. But they will need to step up a fair amount to make their mark in still higher company.

The Rockfel Stakes has a better record, having been won by the likes of Finsceal Beo and Just The Judge and Lucida in recent years. If there is a future classic winner in this year’s field, it now looks rather more likely to be the winner, Spain Burg, than the odds-on second, Fair Eva.  

This was another steadily-run affair – as those finishing speed %s illustrate – and the winner did remarkably well in that context to quicken from off the pace. Her efforts had come in the French Provinces before this, but she showed she is a filly for the main stage, for all that this was just one of a number of smart efforts by two-year-old females this year.

Fair Eva might have been a bit below her best – as represented by her Ascot win and York close third – but Spain Burg should not be underestimated on the back of this impressive display.

Saturday’s card featured three Group races for juveniles, starting with the Juddmonte-supported Royal Lodge Stakes, won by the peerless Frankel in 2010.

There was no Frankel on show this year (you don’t say!), and it is a toss-up between the first two – Best of Days and The Anvil – as to which is the better prospect. Those sectionals suggest they are more superior to their rivals than the bare result.

Both are bred to be even more at home at 10f plus next year, which makes them exciting enough, but neither is starting from an especially high base by Royal Lodge standards. There is nothing in this result (or in his previous defeat at Leopardstown) to suggest that fifth-placed Douglas Macarthur will live up to his initial billing.

And, so, onto the main events – the Connolly’s Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes and the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes – a pair of Group 1s at 6f which are best viewed together and not in isolation.

Perhaps the most important point to make is that, for all that the winning times of the two races are similar, they were achieved in markedly different fashions. The Cheveley Park was run at a strong pace, while the Middle Park most definitely was not.

Lady Aurelia led the former, getting to halfway in 35.82s on Timeform’s figures (her overall time of 72.26s minus her last-3f time of 36.44s), and The Last Lion led the latter, getting to halfway in 38.03s. That is a difference of 2.21s, or around 15 lengths (TurfTrax has it at slightly more), which is a huge amount in a sprint race.

The finishing speed %s in the fillies’ race are around par for the first two – who were a good few lengths back from the hard-pulling runaway leader – or slower than it for most of the others. Lady Aurelia still led with 100 yards to go and then stopped, as, indeed, she had done when still managing to hang on in France the time before.   

Those upgrades, by the way, are taken from last-2f times (not shown) as they prompted the greatest mark-ups in this instance. They suggest that Roly Poly, who raced slightly closer to the pace than did Brave Anna, was fractionally the better filly.

The Last Lion had to do far less to secure his place up front, and that helped him. But those closing sectionals, in absolute and relative terms, show it would be wrong to assume that he was flattered to a large degree.

He was second-fastest only to Blue Point from halfway, and TurfTrax sectionals have him fastest of all in the final furlong. Blue Point had been sensational in the Gimcrack Stakes at York, where he had The Last Lion well beaten in third, and probably was not in quite the same form. But the remainder have limited excuses over and above the fact that the race was clearly messy.

While neither race’s timefigure is likely to be especially good, that fast finish by The Last Lion does at least push up his sectionally-adjusted figure to something respectable.

Ribchester and Muhaarar contested the last two runnings of the Middle Park. Blue Point may be best in this year’s race (courtesy of his Gimcrack effort) but The Last Lion is certainly no mug.

Rightly or wrongly, none of the horses from the above races made it onto Timeform’s Sectional Flag list (Sir Dancealot and Spain Burg were closest), but a handful of runners in other races did, namely Eminent and Vantage Point from Thursday, and Blushing Rose, Talaayeb and Neshmeya from Saturday.

The full details, including finishing speed %s and sectional upgrades, can be found in Timeform’s industry-leading Archive.