Sectional Debrief: Festival Trials Day

Sometimes, betting on horseracing and the cut and thrust of analysis of the sport pales into insignificance alongside events on the track itself.

You did not need to have taken sides in the BetBright-backed Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday to appreciate an exquisitely-nuanced contest beforehand, nor the thrilling finish in the event itself, and definitely not in order to feel deep sadness in the race’s aftermath as the winner, Many Clouds, collapsed and died.

As swansongs go, this was unforgettable. Many Clouds’ strengths, besides considerable ability, were his jumping and his stamina, and in the end his strengths exposed some weaknesses in the hugely talented but less experienced Thistlecrack.

The latter’s jumping suffered as the pressure was applied, but he got there looking like the winner on the run-in, only for Many Clouds to rally and snatch the advantage again in the closing strides.

As usual, it is important to introduce some facts into any discussion of what went on. These include that the Cotswold Chase was run over nearly a furlong further than advertised due to rail movement, that the ground was probably accurately described as “soft, good to soft in places” after overnight rain, and that the pace of the race very much tested stamina.

That last factor can be illustrated by a comparison between the fence-to-fence times recorded by the leaders in this year’s Cotswold Chase and the estimated pars for the course and distance adjusted to the prevailing surface speed.

There was a good, rather than strong, pace until just before halfway, then an increase which took the leader several lengths ”clear”, a slackening around six out, then another increase in pace going to three out with Many Clouds taking over from long-time leader Smad Place, and, eventually, a slow run-in.    

The effect of pace can also be illustrated by contextualising the sectional from three out and comparing it with other races on a day when the majority were run at strong paces for the conditions.

Those times from three out are for the leaders at that fence and the leaders (that is, the winners) at the line. The closing sectional of 62.4s in the Cotswold Chase is historically slow, and, more importantly, slower in terms of that finishing speed % (closing speed as a % of overall race speed) than is par for the course. In that stamina-sapping context, the overall time is a good one.

It all proved too much for the others. On a day when a couple of those who Thistlecrack had beaten recently – Silviniaco Conti and Bigbadjohn – did nothing for his back form, Thistlecrack actually scaled new heights in time terms with his final time adjusted for that sectional resulting in a sectional rating of 165.

Thistlecrack may well face several rivals of a similar calibre to Many Clouds in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in a few weeks’ time – not least Cue Card if he is back on song and Bristol de Mai – and arguably still does not deserve to be quite so short in the betting for that race as he is.

But, with better jumping, and perhaps with a less searching test of stamina, he remains a perfectly plausible winner: he might have won this, narrowly, but for those late rail movements.

The other standout winning performance on time came from Unowhatimeanharry, who delivered an authoritative performance under a double penalty to see off the 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden in the Cleeve Hurdle (a race won by Thistlecrack 12 months before).

Three out over hurdles on the New Course (ignoring omission of the second-last due to the sun, as here) comes at nearly the highest point of the course, and par finishing speeds are quicker as a result. But the Cleeve was still comfortably under 100%, and it was anything but an advantage to race prominently, as the first two did.

Third-placed West Approach put up a smart performance for a novice in open company for the second start in a row but benefited slightly from a well-judged Ruby Walsh hold-up ride.

Wholestone’s effort in winning the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle was even better than it might have appeared judged on his overall time, given that he was always in the vanguard and led at the flight before the sectional, while Foxtail Hill did remarkably well to hang on in the 20f Handicap Chase having set a strong pace (patiently-ridden Saphir du Rheu was suited by the run of things but still could not overhaul his rival).

Foxtail Hill was as much as 5.0s (over 20 lengths) ahead of the leader in the preceding Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at the same trip early on, which was reduced to 3.0s at halfway. The difference remained much the same thereafter, however, and Royal Vacation’s time is not especially good for the grade.

What Royal Vacation did do, however, is pay a further compliment to Might Bite, who would have beaten him hands down at suddenly-much-loved Kempton on Boxing Day had he not fallen at the last.

It should be recalled that Might Bite would have completed the 3m that day something like 2.0s quicker than Thistlecrack went on to do in the King George VI Chase later on. Might Bite simply has to be a seriously good staying novice chaser, and it is to be hoped that experience has not left its mark. 

Less easy to explain are the relatively ordinary winning times recorded by Defi du Seuil in the Triumph Trial and by Un de Sceaux. Well, it must be conceded that the former did win with plenty in hand, but an overall time that was 4.1s slower than the concluding handicap, and 0.8s slower from three out, at least suggests he had precious little to beat on the day.

That finishing speed % is particularly slow in Un de Sceaux’s race, so the anticipated pace burnout did materialise to a large degree, but he overcame it. Runner-up Uxizandre deserves plenty of credit for running so well after nearly two years off but received the most efficient ride in being out of the heat of battle until late. Progress from this for Uxizandre is not as assured as some seem to imagine.  

In most cases, sectionals suggest that margins were exaggerated more than that there were false winners and placed horses. As such, there are no standout sectional eyecatchers, but the following horses paid for forcing the pace and can be expected to run better (or even better) another day:

Burtons Well (fourth to Royal Vacation), Special Tiara (fifth to Un de Sceaux and a horse who probably needs things his way these days), Cole Harden and Ballyoptic (second and fourth respectively to Unowhatimeanharry) and Robinshill (eleventh to William H Bonney).