Sectional Debrief: 2016 York Dante Meeting

One of the arguments put up “against sectionals” by those who feel in-race timing is unnecessary is that the pace of a race and its effect on individual horses within that race can be judged perfectly well without resorting to it.

There is a large role still to be played by visual interpretation of what went on during a race, but this is not one of them.

It is beyond human ability to tell unerringly whether a bunch of horses ran a mile in 100 seconds, 99 seconds or 101 seconds, and yet the differences may be considerable in terms of what it tells us about the horses in question.

Instead, old-school race-readers tend to take visual cues from things like how well or how badly horses are travelling, how strung out the field was early on, and whether or not the principals at the finish had been near the front or near the back early on.

This works as a rule of thumb some of the time, but not all of the time. There is no substitute for establishing a few facts, quickly and simply, by using a stopwatch.  

If you don’t believe me then consider some of the action from this week’s three-day Dante Meeting at York: in particular, the main race itself, the Timeform sectionals for which are as follows:

It might be considered important to establish whether or not the premier Derby Trial was a true test. The claims of the principals for The Derby itself depend in no small part on this.

Racing Post reported, variously, that the early pace of the Dante was “slow” and “steady enough”, whereas the pace of the Middleton Stakes, over the same course and distance, which preceded it was “decent”.

Sectional timing shows that the leader in the Dante got to the 5f pole around 15 lengths AHEAD of the leader in the Middleton, and that the Dante, but not the Middleton, was a true test as judged by those finishing speed %s.

Wings of Desire’s timefigure, based on his overall time, of 115 is one of the fastest of the year so far, and sectional upgrades (which happen when horses run inefficiently) in the race are small. Incidentally, Beautiful Romance’s timefigure for winning the Middleton is just 88, though the first four home in her race all ran the final 3f faster than did any horse in the Dante.

In the absence of electronic sectional times, establishing such matters depends not only on investment in a stopwatch (or picture-editing software) but on good camerawork. Fortunately, the camerawork for the Dante Meeting allowed for accurate timing at several junctures, including those 5f and 3f poles.

The following are the headline “race sectionals” for the leaders for all races across the three days, with the overall distances adjusted for rail movements.

Those final-3f %s (the closing speed of the leader/winner as a % of the average speed for the race overall) should be compared with pars for the course and distance in question. Those pars vary by-distance at York – due to topography, bends and length of race and sectional – but they are around 100 or slightly over for the last 3f in all instances.

So, it can be seen that the two 6f races on the opening day were run fast early and slower late, with Magical Memory’s overall time (when carrying 17 lb more than the 101-rated See The Sun shortly before) the second-best in Britain and Ireland this year so far on Timeform timefigures.

All of the runners in his race – the Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes – get upgraded due to sectionals, but Magical Memory still emerges as the best horse in it and as a credible candidate for leading sprinting honours this year.

Sectionals show that the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes, won by So Mi Dar, tested speed more than stamina, though not greatly so. Not only was the race shortened in distance by 42 yards from what was advertised, So Mi Dar came from a few lengths down 3f out to a few lengths up at the line.

So Mi Dar ran her own sectional in 36.46s, earning a 3 lb upgrade, even before the comfort of her victory is allowed for. Wings of Desire’s similar closing sectional needs to be viewed in the context of his faster overall time and the slightly faster conditions on day two than day one.

Wings of Desire’s claims for The Derby look quite strong, though the picture for that race is not the clearest: not because he did remarkably well to come from the rear in a “slowly-run race”, as some would have you believe, but because the Dante was a true test in which he beat more experienced rivals apparently on merit.

Friday’s feature race – the Betway Yorkshire Cup, run on watered ground – was one which the visuals boys are likely to have had no difficulty in identifying correctly as steadily-run.

That race sectional of 105.8% is for the leader at the sectional and the leader (i.e. the winner) at the line. Clever Cookie’s own time for the last 3f was about 0.3s quicker again, or very similar to the last-3f times of So Mi Dar and Wings of Desire, despite his racing over nearly half a mile further and under conditions which were, by the final day, a bit slower again.

Two of the winners on the final day came from last at the sectional to first at the line, and they are the winners of the two races with the slowest finishing speed %s. In both races, the leaders stopped in front.

A small amount of effort with a stopwatch and a video can pay dividends with major races and lesser races alike, especially when some opinion-makers seem set on using just their eyes and their instincts instead.

Sectional eye-catchers in the supporting races included: Red Pike (third to See The Sun on Wednesday); Thesme (third to Duke of Firenze on Thursday); Masham Star (runner-up to Admiralty Arch on Thursday); and El Astronaute (a front-running second to Discreet Hero on Friday), all of whom went faster than ideal. Or, that is what the evidence suggests.