Sectional Debrief: 2016 Epsom Derby meeting

Whatever the build-up, whatever the advance billing, The Derby at Epsom seldom disappoints.

This year’s contest – sponsored again by Investec and the richest ever to be run in Britain – left many pundits scratching their heads in the lead-up, and a few doing so after the event. The absence of a standout candidate meant that the connections of 16 runners chanced their arm and that bookmakers bet 6/1 the field at one point.

In the end, though, we were not only treated to an enhanced spectacle but to another stirring finish, in which three colts separated themselves from their rivals and probably all put up high-class performances.

The winner, Harzand, who shrugged off an eleventh-hour injury scare, can be considered an up-to-scratch Derby winner, his slower-than-average overall time being down in no small part to ground which analysis confirms was good to soft. After just four starts, he should have plenty of opportunity to prove himself better still than that.

History informs us that there are not many “poor” Derby winners capable of winning in this sort of style, and it also gives us a framework to understand all the better how the result came to pass and which horses – if any – might have been unlucky. 

Sectional timing of the 2016 Derby shows that the early pace was much stronger than ideal – and that the further back the better at that stage – but that a markedly steadier pace mid-race meant that the principals at least managed to run the business end fairly close to par.

Here are the figures for The Derby, split into three sections, with those race pars at the foot derived from the sectionals recorded by fast Derby winners in recent years adjusted to the overall time recorded in this one.

It can be seen that the early leader, Port Douglas, reached the path after 4.1f a remarkable 3.2s – or the best part of 20 lengths – ahead of “par”. That was faster in absolute terms than recent Derby winners Golden Horn and Australia managed on much firmer ground in races in which their end times were 7 to 8 seconds quicker.

Harzand was several lengths down at this point, with US Army Ranger even further adrift, and it is Idaho who gets marked-up most for his proximity in fifth, though even he was nearly six lengths back.

The runners dropped anchor somewhat thereafter (the middle of The Derby is nowhere near as testing as the opening 5f or so), with the outsider Biodynamic quickest in this section in coming from towards the rear to sit in fifth turning in.

This is where it would have been better for US Army Ranger to have been a bit closer, if that were possible, and he additionally had to go the long way round in the straight to get in a challenge.

He closed on Harzand and Idaho, who had drawn on together at the 2f marker, and was upsides in the final furlong, only for Harzand to go away again in the final 100 yards.

Some were critical of Ryan Moore’s ride on US Army Ranger, who went off a well-backed favourite. Sectionals do not give the whole story, but they do show that a dropped-out ride was an advantage early in the race and that those closing figures from the principals were not far from par.

A rematch – quite possibly in the Irish Derby at the Curragh in three weeks’ time – is something to relish. I will not be expecting a greatly different result, though it will certainly be interesting to see what Idaho could do ridden with a bit more restraint.

Such “fast-slow-medium” pace profiles are relatively rare, but there had been a very similar scenario 24 hours earlier in The Oaks, in which Somehow had played the role of Port Douglas and Minding and Architecture drew clear in a race in which the pace collapsed even more markedly.

The following are the figures for the fillies’ classic, with some adjustments made for rail movements in the middle section and apparent variance in the going (which was even softer on the Friday than it proved to be on the Saturday).

Somehow fared better – or less badly, at least – than did Port Douglas, and remains of interest at a slightly lower level. But there is no reason to think she is as good as either Minding or Architecture, who drew right away late on.

Moore did not have a dream ride on Minding, either, with the filly running into trouble as the leaders started to buckle approaching the straight. But the energy Minding had conserved early on (in relative terms) could be used to get her out of trouble late on, and she did that in style.

The Oaks time was one of the slowest in absolute terms in recent years, but was a good one in the context of such soft-ground conditions, and there is every reason to regard the first two as above-par for their positions if not as superior to all those behind them as the circumstances dictated.

Minding needs to put up an even better effort to be considered a true superstar among fillies, but she is tough as teak and versatile with it: this run in a gruelling Oaks came hot on the heels of a win in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and a close second in an Irish equivalent at the Curragh which had turned into something of a sprint, both those races at more than half a mile less.

In case you imagine that, perhaps, all races are run in the fast-slow-medium fashion after all, it is worth considering the Coronation Cup on The Derby card.

This was a slow-steady-(very) fast profile, in which the overall time inevitably ended up poor, but in which Postponed and (to a lesser degree) Found knocked out extremely fast closing sectionals.

By way of comparison, none of the useful handicappers in the 6f sprint that wrapped up the card managed to run quicker than 38.71s from the crossing which comes 3.44f from the finish at Epsom. Found was quicker than that, and Postponed was much quicker than that.

It does not need sectionals to tell you that Postponed is a top-class middle-distance performer – his wins at Ascot, Longchamp and in Dubai in the last 12 months had already shown that – but they do underline that he is in no way just a grinder who needs a true pace and a distance of ground.

The speed Postponed showed here is a rarity for a horse running at beyond a mile, even among the elite. If connections wanted, they could easily try him again at 10f, a distance that seemed a bit short for him over a year ago.