Sectional Debrief: 2016 Newmarket Craven Meeting

One of the “joys” of the month of April in Britain is that you can experience all four seasons in one afternoon. Attendees at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting certainly got plenty of weather over the course of the three days.

The meeting was forecast to start on “good” going, actually started on “good to soft”, became softer still as a result of more torrential downpours, dried out a bit for the second day, eased markedly again during the third, and was accompanied by thunder and lightning as well as pleasant sunshine at various times. No snow, admittedly.

In such circumstances, time analysis – which relies in no small part on inferring the speed of the surface on which horses have run – is not always easy!

Fortunately, sectional analysis is largely independent of such things in one crucial respect. Finishing speed %s (compared to average speeds for the race overall) are ratios and therefore the state of the surface is implied in the overall time, while the pace of the race is implied by the proportion of that time which falls before and after the sectional.

The leader/winner – or “race” – finishing speeds for Tuesday’s racing show that only the sprint won by Teruntum Star was run at a flat-out gallop (and that was exaggerated by Lucky Beggar being ignored to a large degree), while Ventura Storm’s and Speed Company’s races were steadily-run and resulted in finishes that were faster than par.

In the circumstances, Ventura Storm’s win in the listed Feilden Stakes looks pretty handy, with a respectable overall time upgraded on the back of his own 36.15s for the last three furlongs.

Only one winner ran faster at the business end of a race on the day, and that was Thikriyaat (35.97s), a son of Azamour who looks as if he may well be up to winning in better company than he encountered in landing the Conditions Stakes here.

Thikriyaat’s race was one of three over 7f on the card, with the highlight being the Group 3 Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes. That contest took place in driving rain, so it may not be so bad that its winner, Nathra, ran only 0.11s quicker than had Thikriyaat while carrying 2 lb less.

Nonetheless, Nathra (36.31s last 3f) was workmanlike, rather than better, and would not be certain to confirm placings with third-placed Robanne (36.13s, 104 sectional rating) another day.

Nathra had been beaten four and a half lengths by Minding in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile in October, and the latter deserves to be rated that sort of margin ahead still.

Both five-furlong races on Wednesday were strongly-run (the par finishing speed % at the minimum distance is comfortably over 100), and both resulted in useful times once those sectionals were factored in.

There is not much doubt that Sutter County (35.82s sectional) has the best form of a two-year-old seen so far, but there is more than a little doubt as to whether he will hold onto that claim for much longer. Narrow runner-up Dream of Dreams (34.96s) was making ground hand over fist late on, while Sutter County’s figure of 102 is near certain not to be a divisional leader still come Royal Ascot time.

The best overall time/sectional time combination on the card came from Ibn Malik, who made all in the listed European Free Handicap, setting a solid pace (despite going freely) and pulling out plenty. The fact that he is a gelding rules him out of the Guineas, but he should be at home back in Group company elsewhere.

Ibn Malik could cross swords with Gifted Master in a race like the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot after the latter made all also in the Sales Race. Gifted Master was not pushed to his limit to make it four wins out of his last four runs, but Ibn Malik just shades it on ability shown so far.

Mahsoob’s overall time was not all that good in winning the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes, but his own closing sectional of 36.21s (104.1%) is pretty sharp given that par is under 100% at this trip of 9f.

Finishing speed %s might not have been significantly skewed by deteriorating conditions on the final day, but the ability to take accurate sectionals was compromised, with an apocalyptic storm meaning that camerawork was affected. Stormy Antarctic struck a blow for nominative determinism in the featured Craven Stakes.

There are ways of arriving at workable sectionals in such circumstances – including taking them for horses further back in the field and then engineering those for the leader – but a degree of caution is still sensible in using the outputs.

What we know of Stormy Antarctic’s effort is that he came from behind in a race in which the early pace was on the steady side, so strictly deserves extra credit, but it seems likely that only fourth-placed Tony Curtis ran close to his best in behind. The winner had already shown he is smart, but it is unlikely he took another big step forward here.

The Group 3 Abernant Stakes was run at a true pace if those sectionals can be believed (they plausibly have never-nearer fifth Maarek closest of all to par), and Magical Memory did not have to be at his very best to prevail having raced quite close up.

The opening three-year-old fillies’ maiden did have some promising types in it, but Jadaayil’s winning time looks poor and she should have been helped by setting the steady pace.

As Craven Meetings go, this was not the most exciting nor the best. There was almost certainly no Golden Horn (last year’s Feilden winner) or Toronado (winner of the Craven Stakes three years ago) on show.

But there were some promising individual performances – Mulk, Dream of Dreams, Thikriyaat and Robanne all qualify as sectional eye-catchers from the first two days – and Timeform’s Sectional Archive cover each of them in detail.