Cheltenham Trials Day: Timing and Sectional Preview

While the Festival itself is the undoubted highlight of the season, there are few events quite so quintessentially “National Hunt” as Trials Day at Cheltenham. It takes place in the middle of winter, often on “proper” jumping ground, and at the most iconic venue in the sport.

Only the tough and committed need apply. Tweed is de rigueur for many of the humans, but quality on the course is still assured.

This Saturday’s Trials Day delivers once again, including with ground that will test the participants to the full. Spring still seems a long way off, and some people actually seem to like that fact!

Jumps racing may be rooted in tradition, but it has moved with the times in other respects. For instance, analysis of both overall and sectional times is at last perfectly feasible thanks to accurate measurements of race distances and rail movements.

Timeform now produces timefigures over jumps, and it still records closing speeds for all races. The two work in unison: a slow overall time may be as a result of an overly-fast or overly-slow pace, which will be reflected in those sectionals; a fast overall time is likely to have come about as a result of efficient energy distribution, which will again be reflected in those sectionals.

A horse may not run particularly fast overall, or particularly fast in any given section, but if it is good it should do one of those things, or sometimes both. Let’s have a look at what time analysis reveals about some of the races in store.

12:40 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle

The betting tells you this is a penalty kick for Apple’s Shakira, but the question is “is she Diana Ross or Lionel Messi?” (some of you may need to Google “Diana Ross Epic Fail at 1994 World Cup” at this stage, some of you may even need to Google “Messi” or be told what Google is).

She is probably Messi, but it is just possible she is Ross. Neither of the Triumph Hurdle favourite’s wins on this course has been accompanied by a good timefigure, in the first instance because she went fast then finished slow and in the second because she did not really do either.

Look My Way has plenty to make up on form, but is ahead on timefigures as a result of his debut second to Act of Valour at Newcastle, after which he won, while looking wayward, in a more modest time and in a slow finish at Ludlow. Look My Way is rated 106 on the Flat by Timeform: he has the potential to do very well over hurdles.

At the likely odds, I will be siding with Look My Way.

13:15 Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase

Somewhere, gathering dust in a Channel 4 editing room, there is a video of me presenting a trophy on Timeform Day at Cheltenham the year after the Diana Ross debacle, and that is where it should stay. Do. Not. Google.

The race itself is now a Novice and has stood the test of time rather better than some I could mention. This year’s offering has attracted seven runners and has a strong timefigure candidate in Mister Whitaker.

His fast-time second to Hell’s Kitchen at Kempton on Boxing Day came with some pretty tasty sectionals: over 10 lengths quicker from three out than either the King George VI Chase or the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (both admittedly over further).   

Top-weight Sizing Tennessee could well ensure a good test, and his last two efforts, both at this course, have resulted in a win and a second in quite punchy times. Nonetheless, the 18 lb weight concession tips the balance in Mister Whitaker’s favour.

14:25 BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase

Which Bristol de Mai will turn up? The one we saw victorious in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November with a season-leading 174 timefigure would win this, but the one who then flopped in the King George VI Chase at Kempton would not.

Anyone interested in times will not be especially surprised that Bristol de Mai could run so fast, or that he could then run so slow: he did something similar the season before, when another wide-margin success at Haydock stood out like a sore thumb.

This uncertainty may make this seem like a “no bet” race, but in another respect it is a particularly tempting one, for we have the magical “dead eight” of an 8-runner field with a fairly short-priced favourite and a trio of rank outsiders. This is made for an each-way bet.

The horse who best fits the bill is not Tea For Two (third in a rather suspect King George VI Chase: see those earlier sectionals), nor American (pulled up last time), nor even Definitly Red (a solid proposition but running under a penalty here), but The Last Samuri.

The Last Samuri is not just an Aintree specialist, though he ran well (and pretty fast) there last time: he has an 18 lb pull with Definitly Red for a 14-length defeat at Doncaster last spring, form which reads even better now than it did.

He usually runs well when the pace is strong, and it is difficult to imagine the jockey on Bristol de Mai allowing this to turn into a tactical affair.

15:00 Ballymore Classic Novices’ Hurdle

The Timeform pace forecast for the Ballymore Classic Novices’ Hurdle is “very strong”, and it is easy to see why: Mulcahys Hill went too fast last time but still nearly hung on, while Tikkanbar, Black Op and Slate House have been in the vanguard in their races this season also.

In such circumstances, it is tempting to look for a rival that is likely to be more patiently ridden. Aye Aye Charlie is quite interesting at a big price given his sectionals behind Tikkanbar last time, but even better may be Pacific de Baune, who posted a decidedly useful timefigure and was strong at the end of a well-run race when winning at Newbury on his only start.

He is preferred on time to his stable-companion Santini, and that one seems likely to start shorter in any case. This is another race in which an each-way bet makes sense, though not to quite the same degree.

15:35 galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle

Faugheen (169 timefigure) was Timeform’s leading hurdling timefigure in 2017, but only one race had four entries in the top 10, and that was the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December. The first three in that contest do not show for this Cleeve Hurdle, but the fourth – The World’s End – does and looks like being over-priced.

His 155 timefigure from that day makes him top in this, and sectionals suggest he may be a bit better than that still, as he paid for mixing it with superior rivals in a race run at a relentless pace. Fifth-placed Thomas Campbell re-opposes here but could not live with the principals at a crucial stage.

This promises to be a competitive heat, with Wholestone and Colin’s Sister others with solid timefigures and sectionals to back them up. But the evidence of the clock is that the Long Walk Hurdle was a better race than seems to have been generally recognised.

As we know, The Clock Does Not Lie. Unfortunately, human interpretation – including this human’s interpretation – of The Clock may be rather more fallible. We shall see!

Please note that a full Sectional Debrief will appear on these pages after Cheltenham has been run.       

Recommendations:

1 pt win LOOK MY WAY (12:40)

1 pt win MISTER WHITAKER (13:15)

1 pt e/w THE LAST SAMURI (14:25)

0.5 pt e/w PACIFIC DE BAUNE (15:00)

1 pt win THE WORLD’S END (15:35)