Rowleyfile Preview: Wessex Youth Trust Handicap Hurdle

If you had not heard of the Wessex Youth Trust, and wondered why someone was previewing a race with its name in the title, then you are not alone: neither had I, and I am the one providing the preview!

It transpires that this is the race that was formerly known as the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle. Whereas Ladbrokes are not renowned for their charity, and have so far refused to become Authorised Betting Partners, The Wessex Youth Trust does a lot of good work in the community.   

This may not be the biggest loss to the bookmaking Goliaths (or the biggest gain to the charitable Davids), for the race has struggled somewhat to cement its place in the calendar. While it has usually been run just before Christmas, it took place in January in 2005 and 2006.

One consequence of that is that age statistics from those two races need to be adjusted if they are to be relevant to a consideration of “trends” for this year’s contest (a horse winning the race as a six-year-old in January should be treated as a five-year-old for when the race takes place in December).

It is also the case that there was a dead-heat 12 months ago, resulting in the need to split that win into two half-wins.

The more revealing of the resulting findings are as follows:

There is not a lot going on here if trends are looked at in proper depth and not just judged crudely by winners, especially where weight carried is concerned. Six-year-olds have fared best, and horses aged seven or older have fared worst, though those figures are not especially bet-compelling.

A win this season, and/or a win last time, can be seen as a minor positive. Number of previous runs/wins in the current season, last-time position, BHA mark (which is related to weight carried) and absence since last race were also uneventful.

As stated previously, the absence of significant trends can be seen as useful information in itself, however. There is little in the way of biases to stop you taking the race as you find it.

After going through each of the 19 declared runners individually, and pricing up their chances, I have landed on two selections, one of which should be backed each way in a race which lends itself to that approach.

First off, the lightly-weighted Consul de Thaix arguably should be favourite for this, instead of having two or three ahead of him. He has done well in just four races to date, without winning, and reappeared at Sandown a fortnight ago with his best effort yet, running his match-fit stable-companion Brain Power to three quarters of a length.

Consul de Thaix blundered at the first that day, and ended with plenty to do (to be fair, Brain Power came from behind also) before going on well at the death.

Sectionals show that the leaders were not stopping that day, but they may do at Ascot on Saturday as there are confirmed front-runners in Sternrubin and Rayvin Black in attendance, along with occasional front-runner Unison.

The odd pound or two here or there does not necessarily sway a selection – for all that it can sway the result of a race itself – but it has to be regarded as a positive that Consul de Thaix is 4 lb better off with Brain Power for that effort and running off a BHA mark only 3 lb higher than the other day himself.

Nicky Henderson is marginally top of trainers with runners in this race as judged by % of rivals beaten in handicaps since October: he saddles the top-weight Hargam in addition to the pair already mentioned.

The other selection will be running in the same colours as Consul de Thaix and is becoming a bit of a cause celebre. Modus is a highly-talented individual, but he increasingly looks as if he holds something back for himself.

Nonetheless, he shaped best of all when a strong-finishing third to Sternrubin on this course in October and caught a tartar when going down by half a length to North Hill Harvey in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last month.

Modus has edged up further in the handicap, but with justification, and the run of this race should see him to good effect again. His place odds, which are derived directly from his win odds of course, would look too big at 2/1, let alone bigger.

One other piece of information to throw into the mix is that Irish-trained handicap hurdlers have marginally under-performed in races in Britain since August, beating 46.9% of rivals where 50% would be par.

There are reasons to fancy each of the four Irish raiders on Saturday, not least bottom-weighted Golden Spear, but if Irish handicap hurdlers are generally well-treated at present it has not been showing.

Stick with a win-only bet on Consul de Thaix and an each-way “steal” on Modus, and hopefully that will see you right.

Recommendations: 2 pts CONSUL DE THAIX at 9/1, 1 pt each way MODUS at 11/1.