Rowleyfile Preview: Welsh Grand National

Identifying the winner of the 2018 Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow is a simple job at this stage, a week or so before the next edition of the famous race is due to be run on Thursday 27^th December. The answer is “Raz de Maree”, for the horse of that name won a postponed version in January of this year.

Much has happened since that day, and not just in the world of horseracing, including that Raz de Maree has finished no closer than tenth in four subsequent starts and is a big price to achieve the feat of winning the same race twice in the same calendar year. 

This may seem like an academic matter, or even a piece of pointless pedantry, but it does actually tie in with something that is relevant to any consideration of what type of horse may come to the fore in a few days’ time.

This year’s/last year’s race was not the only Welsh Grand National to have been run a week or two later than originally scheduled, with the result that each horse in those delayed races “celebrated” a birthday in the interim.

If you wish to consider age-related statistics of the race in the last decade then you need to knock a year off the official age of the contestants on those occasions (in 2010, 2012 and 2015, as well as last year) when it was run in early-January.

This is referred to as a “boundary problem” in some areas of science. A horse’s age is something we impose on it, and measuring that in years is crude in some respects: the horse itself does not fundamentally change between the end of December and the beginning of January!

Let us look at those revised age stats for the last 10 editions of the marathon chase, with place impact values and % of rivals beaten as usual the best measures.

There is nothing hugely significant there, but if you were thinking of siding with a six-year-old (there are no five-year-olds in this year’s race) then do not let me put you off. There are three of them entered in the Welsh Grand National at the time of writing: Elegant Escape, Ramses de Teillee and Back To The Thatch.

Next, let us look at number of previous runs and number of previous wins in the season in question, using the same measures.

In both instances, there is what might be termed a Goldilocks Zone of performance: neither too many nor too few runs/wins, but “just right”. That is, two or three runs which have produced one win in the current season.  

Qualifiers by a combination of these two measures are: Elegant Escape, Ramses de Teillee, Rons Dream, Baie des Iles and Shanroe Santos.

Lastly, it is worth looking at weight carried and chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, neither of which is finalised until declaration time.

There is not a lot in those weight-carried figures other than a bit of a slump in the second quartile of medium-to-high weights.

The figures are much better for horses with a good chance on Timeform ratings – as you would hope! – with those within 2 lb of top-rated having won more than twice as often as chance and been placed more than one and a half times as often as chance, in addition to that quite high figure for % of rivals beaten.  

Then, of course, there is the specific nature of the Welsh Grand National to be considered. While conditions may not be as testing as in recent years – every race from 2009 onwards took place on “soft” or “heavy” according to Timeform, but the current forecast is “good to soft” – it still represents a marathon ordeal of running and jumping.

Three miles and five and a half furlongs, while negotiating 22 fences, can take even good horses out of their comfort zones. Subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Synchronised and Native River have come out on top in the last decade where other smart types have failed.

In a busy festive period, the Welsh Grand National is still a “must see”, not just for its history and pageantry (the Welsh national anthem gets an airing shortly before the off) but for its quality.

Elegant Escape – second in what was the Hennessy at Newbury last time – and Ramses de Teillee – a ready winner on this course earlier in December – both look well qualified to make a bold showing. Marginal preference is for the former at this stage.

Recommendation: 1 pt win ELEGANT ESCAPE at 6/1

Read Nic Doggett's preview of the Grade 1 action at Leopardstown on December 27

Read Adam Houghton's preview of the Grade 1 action at Leopardstown on December 28