The fate of so-called “good things” at the Cheltenham Festival

Another Cheltenham Festival looms, as do another handful of “good things” for which some punters cannot envisage defeat.

At the time of writing, there are four odds-on contenders at the 2018 jumps racing extravaganza: Buveur d’Air at 4/7 in the Champion Hurdle; Apple’s Jade at 4/6 in the Mares Hurdle; Samcro at 4/5 in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle; and Altior at 8/11 in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

You would have to be one committed contrarian – to be fair, there are a few of you out there – to dispute that each has a decent chance, and yet their multiplied odds are a fraction over 7/1.

Before anyone is tempted to stick a wedge on that very outcome, it is worth taking a trip down Memory Lane, which, it transpires, is littered with a fair few broken dreams.

If there is one aspect of betting that newcomers – and even some grizzled pros – really struggle to deal with intuitively, it seems to be compound probability. Even a very likely event will fail to happen if you repeat it often enough, but the illusion of near-certainty sometimes persists.

A horse winning a race does not often come into the realms of “very likely”, though the increased incidence of short-priced fancies at the Cheltenham Festival in recent years may come as a surprise (and add grist to the mill of those who maintain the action is spread too thinly these days), as the following graph illustrates.

There was only one year between 2001 (when the Festival was cancelled due to foot and mouth) and 2008 in which there were any odds-on favourites, but every year from 2008 on has had at least one and the majority have had at least three.

Over the whole time, there have been 32 odds-on shots, of which 18 have won, for a level-stakes loss of 2.6 (8% loss on stakes).  

As much to the point, perhaps, with the idea of a short-priced accumulator in mind, there has been only one year – 2013 – in which all odds-on horses have won when there have been more than two such individuals. A treble on Simonsig (8/15, Arkle Chase), Quevega (8/11, Mares’ Hurdle) and Sprinter Sacre (1/4, Champion Chase) that year would have paid only just over 9/4.

In 2015, a running-up treble on Un de Sceaux (4/6, Arkle Chase) and Faugheen (4/5, Champion Hurdle) would have fallen at the final hurdle, literally, with Annie Power (1/2, Mares Hurdle). An odds-on four-timer in 2016 came unstuck when 4/6 Un de Sceaux found only a rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre (5/1, indeed) too good for him in the Champion Chase.

Last year saw the shortest-priced horse at the Cheltenham Festival this century – Douvan – get unceremoniously turned over at 2/9 in the Champion Chase.

The message is that stuff happens in racing, and it happens at the Cheltenham Festival every bit as much as it does elsewhere.

We can expect at least one of this year’s odds-on quartet to come a cropper, and their vulnerability looks to be in direct proportion to their odds.

Buveur d’Air and Apple’s Jade each have only one opponent currently quoted at a single-figure price, though Faugheen and Let’s Dance respectively are far from negligible.

Samcro is arguably THE buzz horse of the Festival, the latest off the production line of “unbeatable” Irish novice hurdlers who, nonetheless, looks like having such as On The Blind Side, Duc des Genievres and Black Op to beat. Is Samcro a worthy favourite? Yes. Should he be odds on? Not for me.

Lastly, there is Altior – brilliant if somewhat fragile Altior – who has last year’s Champion Chase winner Special Tiara, the emerging force that is Min, and possibly significant others, to deal with. He is another worthy favourite, but he has had just one outing since April, in which he outspeeded the honest if limited Politologue in a sprint finish to the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.

I would want rather more evidence that Altior was every bit as good as he used to be before steaming into him at such short odds (or including him in a multiple bet with other shorties). But perhaps you disagree!

Towards the other end of the pricing spectrum, the message that things do not always unfold as expected at the Cheltenham Festival can be illustrated by a consideration of the longest-priced winners in recent years.

Cheltenham Festivals come and go, and hotpots win and lose, but one thing it seems we can rely upon is that there will be a few shocks along the way. That is probably as good a message as any to bear in mind in a couple of weeks’ time.