Rowleyfile Preview: Wokingham Stakes

According to Google, the slang term “woke” – the existence of which had been baffling this old duffer for a while now – means having a heightened awareness of social and racial issues.

A “heightened awareness” of issues of a different kind is precisely what you need when tackling Saturday’s  big sprint handicap. The question is: are you woke for the Wokingham Stakes?!

Perhaps the following jog through some of the more important aspects of the race from a statistical and trends point of view will help.

First, let’s look at the possible effect of the draw, as measured by the % of rivals beaten for each stall (plus the stalls immediately on either side to increase statistical robustness) in the last 10 editions of the race, and of pace, using Timeform’s unique Early Position Figures.

There has been a surprisingly strong bias in favour of horses drawn very high and against horses drawn middle-to-low in the last decade, with the winners Baccarat in 2014, Laddies Poker Two in 2010 and Outback Traveller in 2016 coming from the equivalent of stalls 25, 26 and 27 respectively.

For the sake of balance, it can be pointed out that Out Do in 2017 and High Standing in 2009 came from the equivalent of stalls 1 and 3 (remembering that the numbering convention for stalls was altered in March 2011).

In addition, those drawn very high are likely to have plenty of pace to chase in the form of Gifted Master and, to a lesser degree, Soldier’s Minute. The pace also looks solid in the middle, courtesy of Watchable and Lake Volta in particular, but much less so low.

How about the 10-year trends? I looked at several of them and the following four are probably of most interest, with place impact values and % of rivals beaten the best measures as usual.

Veteran horses have fared poorly overall, horses that have made the first three on their most recent starts and horses high up on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have done well, while there has been just the smallest of edge to those high in the handicap compared to those further down.

In terms of trainer form, Roger Varian (Cape Byron) tops the charts of those with runners in the Wokingham with 71.6% of rivals beaten in handicaps in recent weeks. David O’Meara (Intisaab, Perfection, Summerghand and Watchable) comes next on 60.0%.

A trio of horses run under a 5 lb penalty, and all are well in on official figures, if not to a large degree: Danzeno would run off 3 lb higher if the BHA handicapper had another chance, Watchable would run off 2 lb higher, and Recon Mission (only the second three-year-old to have run since 2008) would run off 1 lb higher.

A case of sorts could be made for most in the field, but I am especially keen on those draw stats and the presence of plenty of pace high. It could set up for something coming from further back, and there is one over there at a big price who fits the bill.

Baron Bolt ended last year on a high with a dead-heating win in the Ayr Gold Cup off 4 lower than he gets to run off now, and his two unplaced efforts behind the smart Dream of Dreams this term are easily enough excused.

He shaped okay at Chelmsford on the first occasion and might have found conditions a bit fast at Windsor on the second. Crucially, he did not wear his favoured cheekpieces either time but has been declared with them again here.

Baron Bolt can take a bit of warming up, but he usually sees off his races well, and six furlongs on a stiff track with a bit of give in the ground could prove just the ticket.

The nature of the Wokingham is that a horse can run one of its best races and still not make the frame, of course. Where the market leaders Cape Byron and Foxtrot Lady are concerned, personal bests will be needed on the former’s first run at short of seven furlongs and from stall number 1 for the latter.

As usual with large-field handicaps, an each-way bet makes some sense mathematically (though not as much as if this were a 16- to 19-runner contest), and that is the recommendation where Baron Bolt is concerned.

Recommendation:

0.5 pt e/w BARON BOLT at 33/1 (1/4 the odds first four places)