Rowleyfile Preview: Winter Derby

As I write this, with Storm Doris lashing the windows with horizontal rain, The Derby at Epsom in June seems a very long way off in several respects.

Whether you like it or not, there is not just one Derby any longer, and that has been the case for a long time. Kentucky, India and Ireland are just some of the domains that have got in on the action: imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

There is even a Winter Derby, which seemed an oxymoron when it was first created, but which is firmly established as a highlight of the all-weather season now. This year’s Winter Derby – sponsored by Betway – is due to take place at Lingfield Park on Saturday.

Most previews on these pages are of handicaps and follow a set pattern of considering (and sometimes ignoring) so-called “trends”, but there seems little virtue in doing that with a non-handicap Group 3.

That is not to say we should ignore evidence, however, such as the effect of the draw and the current form of the trainers involved.

I measured the former by performance in handicaps since the AW Championships started (at the end of October) and the latter by the same since the beginning of this year. Handicaps ensure a level playing field of opportunity.

There are some small samples here, but the % of rivals beaten measure – which considers detailed information from all runners, and not just a binary “did it win or not?” – overcomes this to a large degree. You might think twice about backing anything drawn wide in 5f, 10f or 12f races at Lingfield’s fairly sharp left-handed circuit.

The above are the best and worst of those trainers with runners on Saturday’s card who have also had 10 or more participants in handicaps at all tracks since the beginning of the year. There are some unexpected names in both categories, of which more anon.

Where the feature race is concerned, the likely effect of the draw is complicated by the fact that the three most “go-forward” horses are drawn in the three outside stalls: a bend comes soon after the start in 10f races.

The short-priced favourite Mutakayyef is next-widest in stall 7, but there should be little doubt that he has the class to overcome a few obstacles, providing they are minor.

Mutakayyef was third in the International Stakes at York and the Woodbine Mile in Canada on his final two starts in 2016. His current pre-race Timeform rating of 125 has been surpassed by only one horse (Jack Hobbs, 129) running on the all-weather in Britain and Ireland this decade.

Of greater concern is the fact that Mutakayyef has not raced on all-weather previously, that he has a 5 lb penalty, and that he missed a number of suitable big-race engagements last autumn. Trainer William Haggas has had few runners in handicaps but is operating at a high level – a remarkable 84.3% RB – with all runners, by the way.

There are enough reasons to take on Mutakayyef at what will be a short price, especially as the shape of the market lends itself to an each-way bet: the win book is around 110% (you would guarantee £100 back for every £110 risked if staked proportionally) and the place market, which will be less efficient, is around 109% per place at early prices.

The one to profit could well be Battalion, an all-weather stalwart who has his quirks but who regularly gives his running when conditions are like this.

Steady paces have left Battalion with a bit too much to do on occasions recently, but he looks like encountering a better scenario here and should get involved with a late effort. Trainer Jamie Osborne is only just outside that top-6 table, with an impact value (wins compared to chance) of 1.77 and 59.2% RB.

One less-than-familiar name in that list of top trainers is Archie Watson, who, a quick Google reveals, is training out of Lambourn and doing a passable impression of Eddie Redmayne. The young shaver has either got massively lucky or, far more likely, very much knows what he is doing. This year’s figures are similar to last year’s, his first as a trainer.

Watson’s representative in the big race, Absolute Blast, will do well to finish ahead of his former boss’ representative, Mutakayyef. But he has a good contender for the 8f handicap earlier on the card in Chevallier.

Chevallier got the run of things somewhat when winning at this course and distance last time but has been raised only 2 lb as a result and looks to have favourable circumstances once again, drawn on the rail in a race in which the other obvious pace-forcer, Kingston Kurrajong, is drawn wide.

Chevallier has been a model of consistency for his new yard, placed on all but one of his nine starts, and should be there or thereabouts again.

The Winter Derby is one Fast-Track Qualifier on Lingfield’s card, and the other is the listed Betway Hever Sprint. This should depend a lot on which Pretend turns up: the one who showed a blistering turn of foot to win at Kempton in January or the one who got buffeted early and possibly didn’t fancy it on this track earlier this month.

Another messy race is at least possible, with no clear contenders for the early lead, and this looks a race to watch and enjoy rather than bet in. I will stick with those two financial interests elsewhere.

Recommendations

1 pt e/w CHEVALLIER (2:40)

1 pt e/w BATTALION (3:15)