Rowleyfile Preview: Welsh Grand National

The best piece of advice I can give regarding this year’s Coral Welsh Grand National at 2:50 on Friday is that your bet, whatever that bet might be on, is each-way rather than win only.

It is a simple matter of maths. The amount you would have to stake in proportion to every horse’s odds to return £100 regardless of the outcome is £121 in the win market at best bookmakers’ odds at the time of writing; the same is just £92 for the place market, assuming one quarter those win odds and four places.

You cannot back place only – for, if you could, you could guarantee a profit come what may – but you can back win and place (that is, each way), which reduces the margin in favour of the books, known as the over-round, from 121 to 106.5 where 100 represents parity between punter and bookie alike.

Seventeen runners, with quite a short-priced favourite plus a few apparent no-hopers, is near-dream each-way territory for those sniffing out value. What the each-way bet should be on is rather more difficult to determine! 

These previews look at trends from the last 10 editions of the race in question, and a well-established and prestigious race like the Welsh Grand National would normally provide good material. But that is not so much the case this year, as may be seen from the following findings.

Those age trends have been adjusted to allow for the fact that the race has been postponed by a few weeks on four occasions this century, meaning that, say, a six-year-old in late-December technically becomes a seven-year-old in early-January despite simply sitting in its box.

We are dealing with a late-December race this year, and the younger age is the one that counts for the purposes of this comparison.

The problem is that there are NO horses aged under seven this time around – a missed opportunity, perhaps – and nor are there any horses running off BHA marks of less than 133, or any making their seasonal reappearances.

We are left with not a lot to go at where trends are concerned, though there is a reassuringly good performance there for horses high up on Timeform adjusted ratings, as well as when backing longer-priced horses each way (those stakes are varied to return 100 for the win part in line with the horses’ odds).

In the absence of much in the way of meaningful trends, some more conventional form analysis will have to suffice.

I am not going to pretend that Elegant Escape and Now McGinty have anything other than good chances, but they are short odds now, at roughly 7/4 coupled.

The former won this last year, but off 9 lb less. He comes here in great form, having finished strongly into third behind De Rasher Counter in the valuable Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury last month, though that was in first-time blinkers and it remains to be seen if that aid will be so effective again.

Now McGinty may be well in off a mark of 147, having run the classy Santini (conceded 6 lb) to a head at Sandown in November, and can be given a decent chance – but not more than that – on his form as a staying novice last season also. This will be his first time at beyond three miles, but he shapes as if it will be fine for him.

Nonetheless, something at bigger odds appeals more, and that something is The Two Amigos for me.

Another second-season novice, he won three of five in 2018/2019, and followed a pipe-opener over hurdles with a good third under top weight in the Southern National at Fontwell Park a few weeks back.

What’s more, The Two Amigos probably did better than the result that day, going with zest and pressing on some way out (the TPD sectionals are revealing) before finding no extra. He can improve on the bare form of that run, and admittedly will need to, while his sound jumping was again in evidence.

Sound jumping is a definite plus with so many obstacles to be cleared in this three miles, six furlongs and 130 yards contest (increased in distance since last year), as is copper-bottomed stamina. The Two Amigos won over a fraction further than this in soft going at Exeter a year ago: it is difficult to envisage him failing in that department now back to peak fitness.

Remember that advice at the outset and back each way rather than win only. In addition, shop around and see if there are any enhanced place terms on offer: for instance, one-fifth the win odds for the first five places is even better than one-quarter for first four, providing the win odds are identical.

Recommendation:

0.5 pt each way The Two Amigos at 20/1