Rowleyfile Preview: Victoria Cup

There was a time when the Victoria Cup Handicap was one of the premier races of the British Flat racing season and regularly won by a high-class horse. For instance, My Babu was successful in 1949 – the year after he won the 2000 Guineas, no less – when running to a Timeform rating of 136!

There has been nothing of that calibre in recent times, though Dandy Boy – a future Haydock Sprint Cup fourth and 121 performer – took the race on his way to better things in 2010.

Most years, it is won by a useful and well-treated handicapper, and that looks likely to be the case this year, when 27 have been declared over Ascot’s straight seven furlongs. A daunting prospect for the punter, perhaps, though the odds go at least some way to compensating for that: it is 10/1 the field at the time of writing.

Let’s start with some draw and pace analysis. There should not be much of a draw bias on a straight track, but clearly sometimes there is. The last 10 years of this race suggests there is only a very small one, with the % of rivals beaten figures rounded for the stall in question and the stalls on either side.

There has been a small cluster of stalls around 19 to 22 that has overperformed, but only slightly, while there has been a similar cluster around 8 to 12 who have underperformed to a similar degree.

My conclusion is not to let the draw bother you too much. Of perhaps more concern is proximity to pace.   

A surprisingly small number of the runners tend to go forward, headed by Lake Volta in stall 19 and perhaps his stable-companion Cardsharp in stall 15. Mark Johnston-trained horses often “get on with it”, and there would seem to be some wisdom in aiming to do that here, despite the stiff nature of the course.

The overall pace profile could pose a problem for held-up horses on the flanks: we shall see.

Some other “trends” to consider are the following, with place impact values and % of rivals beaten as usual the best indicators.

Again, there is not an awful lot there, but, for the record, four-year-olds have done well in terms of win impact value (winning nearly twice as often as by chance) but five-year-olds have done better in terms of the measures that truly count.

There is an interesting uptick for horses making their seasonal reappearances: you should not be wary of them in general, anyway. Horses to have finished prominently in their most recent starts have fared better than those that didn’t, but not to a large degree. The recent record of outsiders should not put you off going against the obvious.

After pricing up all the runners in line with the above and more conventional form considerations, I have come down in favour of two against the field, though overall I reckon this is not a race you should feel obliged to get stuck into.

Firstly, Cape Byron has a decent profile as a five-year-old making his reappearance, and as one who has proved himself at this course and distance and on softish ground.

He went off a short-priced favourite for a similar event here on his final start of 2018 but could finish only seventh to Raising Sand (6 lb worse off) and Ripp Orf (2 lb better off). It was no disaster, but Cape Byron is better judged on his efforts earlier last year, including a second at this course and distance to Ripp Orf (same terms for half a length).

It may be wondered, and perhaps with good reason, why Ripp Orf is not being put up, though he thrived on his racing last term and only truly reached his peak from September onwards.

We do not know for sure the current well-being of Cape Byron, but the performance of his stable (68% of rivals beaten in handicaps in recent weeks) is certainly encouraging.

Second, Presidential looks primed to run a big race here. He ended last season in great form, winning at Newmarket in November, and ran a race full of promise at that same course on his return when a very patiently ridden third to Mubtasim.

Presidential was 1 lb out of the weights that day so actually runs off fractionally less in this. Hopefully his jockey, Ben Curtis, will be alive to possible pace deficiencies on his side and tag onto where the pace is.

Both Cape Byron and Presidential are “the right age”, and both could have the bit of improvement in them required to win a race like this.

Due to its nature, the Victoria Cup is mathematically a better race for an each-way bet than a win-only bet, so that is recommendation.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt e/w CAPE BYRON at 10/1, 0.5 pt e/w PRESIDENTIAL at 14/1