Rowleyfile Preview: Victoria Cup

There was a time when the Victoria Cup Handicap was one of the premier races of the British Flat racing season and regularly won by a high-class horse. For instance, My Babu was successful in 1949 – the year after he won the 2000 Guineas, no less – when running to a Timeform rating of 136!

There has been nothing of that calibre in recent times, though Dandy Boy – a future Haydock Sprint Cup fourth and 121 performer – took the race on his way to better things in 2010.

Most years, it is won by a useful and well-treated handicapper with few pretensions to top-tier success, and that looks to be the case this year, when 29 have been declared over Ascot’s straight seven furlongs.

A daunting prospect for the punter, perhaps. But, on closer inspection, it is difficult to fancy the majority in the field, though the odds go at least some way to compensating for that.

Against that, there are a handful who could still be going places, and that is where this preview will largely concentrate.

First, though, there is time to check a few of the “trends” for the race, taken from the last 10 runnings and measured by wins, first-four finishes, the impact values (success compared to chance) for those two, and % of rivals beaten, with higher being better in each case.

History shows that older horses have fared poorly (with five-year-olds the best age group), that last-time winners have done well, and that horses which have run more than twice in the current season can be considered disadvantaged (with seasonal debutants best of all). It also suggests that there is not much in it with regards to the draw. Those are useful factors to take into account.

If the draw itself may not play much of a part, then maybe the whereabouts of the pace-forcers will do. The news here seems to be fairly neutral, also.

Horses with Timeform Early Position Figures of 2.2 or under (indicating the likelihood of taking up a prominent early position) are stalled in 1, 6, 15, 17, 25, 26 and 29, with 1 (Related) and 25 (Majestic Moon) particularly renowned for getting on with things.

Hopefully this will prove a fair contest, and the relative preponderance of early pace may well assist those who tend to be ridden more conservatively. Being on the back of a hold-up horse tends not to be a bad place on Ascot’s straight course when fields are big and the pace is strong.

In the circumstances, a couple of five-year-olds make the most appeal: namely, Outback Traveller and Free Code, who are drawn in stalls 8 and 24 respectively.

Outback Traveller was a talented, if rather frustrating, individual for Jeremy Noseda, a winner at this course and distance as a three-year-old but a flop in this contest 12 months ago. He was switched to Robert Cowell over the winter and could not have shaped much better when seventh to Predominance at Haydock recently.

Predominance got the job done readily enough in the end that day, and is understandably among the favourites for this contest as a result. But, whereas he has gone up 6 lb in the handicap, Outback Traveller has, surprisingly, been dropped 2 lb despite looking very much as if he would have got involved with anything like a clear run that day.

Everything looks set for Outback Traveller to run a big race here, but, mindful of his overall hit-and-miss record, a win-only  bet is advised.

Free Code has proved a more reliable sort overall, but he is another one who shaped with significant promise on his only start of this campaign, finishing strongly into fourth behind Teruntum Star at Newmarket.

That was over just six furlongs, and Free Code is better at seven furlongs or even a mile. He has a good record on straight tracks and is only 3 lb higher than for his last win. Trainer David Barron is a past master at getting one ready for a big handicap and won this one in 2006 with Partners In Jazz.

Others worth a mention include the four-year-olds Grand Inquisitor – another to shape well on his only start this year, but possibly more at home at a mile – and Hold Tight, who has already shown himself to be decidedly useful in just three starts.

But a bit more experience at this sort of hurly-burly level seems to be an advantage, and that tips the scales back in the favour of the two selections.

The betting mathematics for this race have a win book of nearly 140% but an each-way book of under 120% if first-five places are secured, and the latter seems to be the way to go where Free Code is concerned at least.

Recommendations:

1 pt win OUTBACK TRAVELLER

1 pt each-way (1/4 odds first five places) FREE CODE