Rowleyfile Preview: Ultima Handicap Chase

The waiting is almost over: the 2018 Cheltenham Festival is finally all but upon us. For those who like to take a bit of time to consider their bets, the wait to find out what will run on the opening day is already at an end, due to the long-overdue advent of 48-hour declarations.

Much has already been made of the small fields on Tuesday, though the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle are both bigger than average to offset, somewhat, there being just five runners in the Arkle Chase and nine in the Mares’ Hurdle. If you think this is going to be easy for the form student, then I bet you won’t be thinking that by Friday evening!

That said, the first handicap up for preview on these pages – the Ultima Handicap Chase, due off at 2:50 on Tuesday – looks more manageable than most renewals. It remains to be seen whether or not that proves to be a further example of self-deception.

Eighteen have been declared for the contest over three miles and a furlong, and the first thing that struck me is just how much stamina is likely to be required to run well in it. In addition to the forecast soft/heavy going, there is a preponderance of pace-forcers, with seven horses having Timeform EPFs of 2.2 or less. That Cheltenham Hill could feel like the North Face of the Eiger to a few.

As usual, I looked at some “trends” from the past 10 years, and, as usual, some of them amounted to little. These are the ones which may be worth a second look.

The advice to focus on well-treated younger horses with last-time wins to their names does not require Sherlockian powers of deduction to arrive at. But there are surprisingly few such qualifiers this year. Just four of the 18 are aged less than eight, three of those won last time, but two of them have plenty to find on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.

The exception is Coo Star Sivola, who ticks many of the required boxes and also tends to race a little further back if this proves to be something of a pace burnout early.

The six-year-old also has the benefit of being trained by the most in-form handler in the race by some way, in Nick Williams.

Williams’ horses have won five handicaps from 15 attempts from Cheltenham Trials Day (27 January) to the time of writing, for an impact value of 2.5 and a % of rivals beaten of a remarkable 75.9%. Of other major trainers with runners in the Ultima, Sue Smith comes a distant second on 63.9%, while Venetia Williams brings up the rear on just 31.0%.

Coo Star Sivola himself was one of those winners, scoring easily by 14 lengths at Exeter on 23 February. If you get the chance, dig that video out and reflect on the fact that Coo Star Sivola has gone up only 7 lb for that effort, despite being hard on the snaff for most of the home straight.

Fourth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at a shorter distance at last year’s Festival, Coo Star Sivola has long looked a smart stayer in the making and is now beginning to come into his own: don’t be surprised if he is a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender 12 months from now.

Lizzie Kelly may not be at the top of everyone’s list of go-to jockeys, but she does at least know Coo Star Sivola well, having ridden him in his last dozen starts: the horse has not fallen or looked like falling in that time.

Coo Star Sivola was an impressive winner @ExeterRaces for @NandJ_WilliamsR - he's ran well @CheltenhamRaces before - is he your idea of The Ultima handicap at the Festival? #TheVerdict pic.twitter.com/Rzm7Gukcru

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) February 26, 2018

Up against him and her are some seasoned handicappers and gnarled veterans, though none of the former has Coo Star Sivola’s potential.

Gold Present and Singlefarmpayment are, like Coo Star Sivola, at single-figure odds at the time of writing. The former will need to put in an effort good enough to go close to getting placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup off his top-weight, while the latter may have developed his own ideas about the game since coming second in this race a year ago.

If there is an interesting outsider then Minella Daddy – back to form last time and only 2 lb higher in the handicap now – could be it. But he gets just 3 lb from Coo Star Sivola here and time may show that is a near-impossible task.

Coo Star Sivola may be disputing favouritism, but he is still very backable in my book: odds of no greater than 4/1 might have been expected.

Recommendation: 2 pts win COO STAR SIVOLA at 6/1 NRNB