Rowleyfile Preview: Topham Handicap Chase

The word “extreme” is one that crops up quite a bit around races which take place over the Grand National course at Aintree.

The fences themselves are extreme, though less so than they were, the course is extremely long and yet extremely sharp at the Canal Turn, the big race itself is an extreme test of stamina, and the number of runners are often extremely large compared to day-to-day racing.

That last feature is in evidence in the Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase at 16:05 on Friday, with 30 having been declared, but there is another “extreme” to throw into the equation in this instance, and that is the predicted pace profile.

A remarkable eight of the runners have Timeform consolidated Early Position Figures of 1.5 or less – indicating those who habitually force the pace – and another five are on 2.2, just in case there is any slacking.

Whatever else the race is, it is likely to be strongly-run, and that will have consequences for positioning, stamina and the ability to avoid traffic problems. Front-runners will do well to stay up front to the bitter end, even at this trip of just over 21f, but hold-up horses need to be able to pick their way through a large field and to see off their races fully.

The “extreme” pace prediction is a key feature of this year’s Topham, but there are others, of course, including some which may be derived from the last 10 editions of the historic race. The following are some of the more useful findings.

Interestingly, youth is not the advantage it often is in races like this: if anything, the opposite. Experience counts for plenty, which is not that surprising given the test at hand.

Also interestingly, multiple wins in the season under review and a last-time victory can be regarded as small negatives. A good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings is a clear positive – as it usually is – while horses in the mid-range of odds at Betfair Starting Price have performed best against expectation.

There was a historical bias against horses with BHA handicap marks of 130 or lower, but that proved to be irrelevant this year, with the bottom weights going off 136 and no horse below 132 in the long handicap either.

Horses with three to five runs in the season in question outperformed those with fewer or more runs, but only just, as did horses coming off breaks of more than six weeks compared to six weeks or under, but again by only a little.

There are few clues to be gleaned from “trainer form”, with the large majority of trainers with runners in the Topham in the “decent but not outstanding” 47% to 58% range of rivals beaten in handicaps since resumption after Equine Influenza (which now seems like a lifetime ago).

The first bookmaker odds put up for the Topham came in at a miserly 150% on the win book and 128% on the place book, meaning that it was better to back each-way than win only, but pretty unappealing to do either. A more mature market is likely to have little between the two options.

As a result, I am going to side win only with a couple of horses likely to be patiently ridden and which have decent chances at the weights. They will need some luck on their side, but that is the nature of the beast.

Firstly, Adrien du Pont remains of interest following his third in what used to be the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in February, when he finished well from off the pace and possibly should have won judged on sectionals. Before that, he had bounced back to form with a very smooth success at the same course.

Those two runs were at three miles, but that distance is at the upper limit of Adrien du Pont’s stamina (which may explain in part the tactics last time). This trip on softish ground, with plenty of running and not much jumping late on, should be fine for him.

Adrien du Pont made a few mistakes as a novice last season but has been more composed this term.

Secondly, Doitforthevillage can be given a solid chance judged on his win at Chepstow then vain pursuit of the monstrous Cyrname at Ascot, and gets a pass for just respectable efforts at Warwick and Cheltenham since, in neither of which did things go his way.

The buffeting he got on the last-named course would have finished off many a lesser horse, but Doitforthevillage somehow got back into contention before his exertions took their toll. Trip and ground are suitable for him, also.

Neither horse has experience of these unique fences, but they are not as extreme as they once were and that need not count against them. In a race in which caution is advised, they should go well if things pan out as hoped.

Recommendations: 0.5 pt win ADRIEN DU PONT at 14/1, 0.5 pt win DOITFORTHEVILLAGE at 25/1