Rowleyfile Preview: Topham Handicap Chase

These previews usually start off with a look at race trends, which may or may not significantly affect the decision process, before moving onto other forms of analysis. But, where the Randox Health-sponsored Topham Handicap Chase on Friday is concerned, we will do it the other way round.

My view is that a few non-trends factors will be more relevant than trends in this instance. In particular, we have racing taking place on quite testing ground on the Grand National course (early times on Thursday were nearer soft than good to soft) and we have a proliferation of pace-setters in the Topham itself.

A remarkable 13 of the 30 declared runners have Timeform Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less, indicating that they are habitual front-runners or pressers, and it could get very cut-throat up front. The problem for any jockey riding a more patient race is how to avoid fallers up ahead and to pick a way through tiring rivals when/if the time comes.

The more recognised up-with-the-pacers are Beau Bay, Indian Temple, Notarfbad and Greybougg (all with EPFs of 1.0), Midnight Shot (1.3), Kilcrea Vale (1.4), Flying Eagle (1.6), Village Vic, Art Mauresque and Highland Lodge (all 1.9) and Devils Bride, Minella On Line and Mystifiable (all 2.2). Of those, Art Mauresque looks as interesting as any if he avoids getting involved in a dog-fight.

That still leaves 17 contenders whose run styles may be more suitable to how the race pans out, but it is a start! Among the other non-trends factors to consider is so-called trainer form – measured by the % of rivals beaten in handicaps since the end of February – and here there is another interesting finding.

Of those trainers with a reasonable number of runners, one with an entry in the Topham stands out, and that is Ian Williams, who has had two winners and three thirds from 10 representatives, and whose horses have beaten 77.6% of their rivals (only two of that ten finished outside the front third of the field, which is no mean achievement). Ian Williams sends out Ballyalton.

It is worth turning to those trends now, to see how Ballyalton and others measure up against them. These are some of the headline figures.

The initial age figures had positive returns for horses under the age of seven (who have won three of the last 10 runnings), but there are no such individuals among the 30 declared on Friday and otherwise the story is one in which older horses are in no way disadvantaged. Younger is usually better in handicaps: not here.

Lower-weighted horses have not done all that well, and neither have last-time winners (of which there are only two in the Topham). Runners with a good chance on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings have performed well above par, which is good to see!

Supporters of the aforementioned Ballyalton have nothing to worry about in terms of those trends, though he is not the only one of which that is true. He is an 11-year-old, with plenty of experience over fences (if just the one win, back in 2016), and he will run off a mark of 138 having finished fourth last time.

That fourth place came at the Cheltenham Festival in the Brown Advisory Plate, in which Ballyalton bounced back from a rare poor effort and added to a record at jumps racing’s premier meeting which includes success in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase and a second to Faugheen in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle. He challenged between the last two in the Plate before finding The Storyteller and two others too good, and was later found to have lost a shoe.

Ballyalton is a class act at his best, and he usually runs creditably even if he wins only occasionally. He is on an attractive mark, the same as in the Plate and 2 below when winning 12 months earlier. 

It is worth backing him each way, not just because of his record but because the maths suggest you should: the win book at the time of writing is 131% but the place book is 113% per-place, assuming one-quarter the win odds and four places. You may do better still than that if you shop around.

The others I considered closely for this race were the aforementioned Art Mauresque and the Willie Mullins-trained Polidam, the latter having shown considerable stamina when winning a race similar to the one this one may become at Navan before Christmas.

But an on-form Ballyalton very much has it in him to be there or thereabouts in this year’s Topham, and that will do for me in a race in which a scattergun approach is best avoided.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt each way BALLYALTON at 14/1, ¼ odds first-4 places