Rowleyfile Preview: Stewards' Cup

In contrast to past years, those who got to pick their stall numbers for Saturday’s Unibet Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood seemed to have done their homework. The first eight connections all chose between 6 and 14 – the sweet spot judged on performances in the last decade – while 20 and above were the ones that no-one much wanted.

In addition, the majority of the pace, as judged by consolidated Timeform Early Position Figures, looks to be between stalls 9 and 16, as shown in the below Pace and Draw Map. Pace is measured by those EPFs, with lower being more prominent, and draw in the last 10 renewals is measured by % of rivals beaten for that stall and for the two on either side.

The draw will not necessarily make a huge difference to the outcome of the Stewards’ Cup, but small differences are sometimes enough, and those in very high stalls do look up against it.

We can also look at some of the “trends” for this race from the past decade.

The small three-year-old representation has won two of the last 10 Stewards’ Cups, at a rate nearly three times more often than by chance, but that age-group’s returns are neither good nor bad judged by the superior measures of place impact value and % of rivals beaten. Four-year-olds have fared slightly better.

A higher handicap mark can be viewed as a positive, as most certainly can a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. A lengthy absence is a negative, but only True Mason among Saturday’s 28 declared runners falls foul of that criterion.

A last-time win is usually a small positive in any handicap but is much more so in this instance. Just four horses – Raucous, Air Raid, Flavius Titus and Buridan – qualify on that score.

Putting all the above together and assigning odds to each horse led me to favour two contenders above all others. One is the aforementioned Air Raid, and the other is Summerghand, a horse I wrote up on these pages for last week’s International Handicap, from which he was withdrawn after the rain came.

Air Raid has been in terrific form since a breathing operation over the winter, winning three times at Hamilton from a total of five starts. He accounted for Lake Volta and Staxton in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup most recently, for which he picked up a 6 lb penalty.

There is every chance Air Raid will improve further, and Jedd O’Keeffe’s stable continues in flying form. 

Unlike Air Raid, Summerghand is not the “right” age, in that he is a five-year-old rather than a four-year-old, but, like his rival, he has never been better.

He has been placed three times from four starts – and finished fifth of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap on the other – this term and finished on the heels of two smart performers in Danzeno and Enjazaat in a minor event at Haydock last time.

Summerghand strictly has the beating of Flavius Titus – one of the market leaders here – on their efforts at Newmarket earlier this campaign, though the latter has won again since.

In a race very likely to be run at a good pace, at least on his part of the track, Summerghand has the right profile to finish strongly to get involved at the business end.

A mention must be made of Justanotherbottle also. He does not fit many of the trends, but he looks well drawn and is certainly well-treated on his second in this race off 4 lb higher 12 months ago.

Presumably questions would be asked if he popped up in this having finished towards the rear in his last three outings, and the bookmakers are taking few chances with his odds (he is disputing favouritism at the time of writing).

The mathematics of a race like this make it appealing for an each-way bet, with the per-place book about 20% lower than the win book. You may also be able to improve on that by securing better place terms.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt e/w AIR RAID at 25/1

0.5 pt e/w SUMMERGHAND at 16/1

*one quarter the odds first four places