Rowleyfile Preview: Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle

In terms of spectator interest, jumps racing is thriving, at least on the big occasions. But in terms of field sizes it is currently in the doldrums, following a red-hot summer which has not been fully compensated for by the kind of miserable autumn so beloved by the Tweed-clad brigade.

The Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday has attracted just five declared runners, despite being the first leg of a million-pound bonus, and the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle is not a lot better with a field of eight, easily the smallest in recent times.

That makes tackling the latter through “trends” – which is the loose directive to this article – somewhat difficult. This year’s race does not much resemble past ones, for all that a few of the central features hold true.

Indeed, I could find only one historical trend of note, but it is quite a good one with relevance to the octet due to face the starter at or just after 2:25 on Saturday.

Running through those figures, five-year-olds (plus the one four-year-old to have run in the last decade) have been responsible for 27 runners, six wins and 14 places, representing a win rate more than three times and a place rate more than twice what could be expected by chance. At the same time, that age group has beaten 64.3% of its rivals, where 50.0% is (fairly obviously) par.

Those are impressive numbers, and they mean that every other age-group is sub-standard, if not by much. There are three five-year-olds in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle.

They include the favourite – and, let’s be honest about it, by some way the likeliest winner – First Assignment, who comes to this the winner of both his races this season, most recently by nine lengths at Cheltenham, for which he picked up a mere 5 lb penalty.

What’s not to like? Well, not much, other than, perhaps, the most important thing of all: his price. It is around 6/4 at the time of writing and more likely to contract than to drift if anything.

What can be said, however, is that the race First Assignment won last time was a rather odd one, run at a stop-start gallop until four out and yet no quicker late on than the handicap hurdle and the bumper that came after it. First Assignment came off the bridle briefly coming down the Hill before running clean away from his rivals. The Timeform timefigure comes out at a miserable 60.

There may be hope for First Assignment’s rivals, in other words, and I think there is sufficient hope to oppose him at the odds, especially as there is at least one solid alternative.

The other two five-year-olds on show are Milrow, who has little to recommend him on recent form, and Captain Cattistock, who does.

The latter won three of his six hurdle races as a novice last season and made a highly satisfactory reappearance when quite a close sixth to Garo de Juilley in the truly-run Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow last month.

Perhaps the most appealing aspect of Captain Cattistock’s claims is that Saturday will be the first time that he gets to tackle three miles, and he sure looks as if it may help him.

Captain Cattistock also does not need the ground to be soft (though that most definitely applies to First Assignment also) as it was only just “good to soft” in that Chepstow race and was nearer “good” when he was a creditable fourth in useful company at Cheltenham in April.

Then, there is the shape of the betting market, with eight runners and a short-priced favourite making for an appealing proposition for each-way punters (providing all runners stand their ground).

The place market comes in at close to 100% at the time of writing, and some bookmakers are likely to offer added incentives. As it is, a horse second or third in the betting under such circumstances is likely to be over-priced to make the first three.

Paisley Park, Shades of Midnight and Bobo Mac are contenders to fill those places also, but somewhat less so than First Assignment and Captain Cattistock in my book. Backing the latter each way looks the way to go.

Recommendation:

1 pt each way Captain Cattistock at 6/1