Rowleyfile Preview: Red Rum Handicap Chase

For many of my generation, Red Rum can be thanked – or in a few cases cursed – for a lifelong obsession with horseracing.

His 1973 Grand National win remains one of the sport’s most iconic moments, though I am sure my 10-year-old self was not alone in viewing gallant runner-up Crisp as the true hero of the piece. Red Rum’s record-breaking third Grand National victory four years later was off the scale.

“Rummy” also stole the show at various public engagements, including when opening a betting shop in Halifax in the early-1990s, which involved being mobbed by several members of Timeform editorial while not turning a hair. Rummy was loaded on and off a horsebox in the car park opposite Timeform House, where now stands a Wetherspoons.

The Halifax car park deserved a better fate, and the great horse arguably deserves a better race to be named in his honour than the Red Rum Handicap Chase on the opening day of the Aintree meeting. Nonetheless, there can be no doubting that this year’s renewal is strong on quality as well as quantity.

As is customary, I will pick out a few of the key trends from the last decade, but they have not greatly influenced my thinking in this instance.

Younger has been better in the Red Rum Chase in recent years, with six of the last 10 winners having been under eight years of age. A light campaign has not been a good sign, though only two in Thursday’s 18-runner field get marked down on that score (Demi Sang, who is also the only six-year-old, and Adrrastos).

Last-time winners have fared no better than average, though last-time placed horses have performed to a rather higher level. Variable stakes at Betfair SP have seen the better-fancied horses underperform against expectation, if only slightly.

At the same time, weight carried, BHA mark run off and wins in current season yielded little. Horses returning from an absence in excess of six weeks had, however, performed poorly (42% RB), though only three – Theinval, Demi Sang and McGroarty – come into that category.

It is also worth considering trainer form – Lucy Wadham (68% RB in recent handicaps) is good, Jennie Candlish (35%) is bad – and the likely pace scenario. On the latter, Timeform predicts a “very strong” pace, and that is no surprise, with five runners having consolidated Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less.

It is easy to see Lady Buttons and Eamon An Cnoic – two in-form horses suited by the conditions – running well, but I think it is worth chancing one at slightly bigger odds who has been on my radar for a race like this for a while.

Moon Over Germany is still a maiden over fences after four starts, but he has been mixing it with some of the better novices around, and on two or three occasions has shaped as if better than the result and better than the 136 handicap mark he gets to run off here.

At Punchestown in December, he chased home Getabird (now rated 150p) and Articulum (142) on their respective chasing debuts; he was then not knocked about unduly when splitting Paloma Blue (142) and Impact Factor (139) at Leopardstown.

Since then, Moon Over Germany has seemed not quite to get home when favourite for a strongly-run handicap at Leopardstown won by Quamino and a Rated Chase at Thurles won by Real Steel, both at an extended two miles and in which the selection had plenty of use made of him.

There is every chance of Moon Over Germany being ridden less aggressively at Aintree at what should be a “short” two miles, though the Clerk of The Course has increased the race distance by 58 yards since declaration (British racing, eh?!).

Regular readers will not be surprised to learn that Moon Over Germany is recommended each way. Handicaps with 18 runners are good mediums for such an approach, and this one has a win book at best early prices of 123% but a place book of just 99% for four places and 93% for five.

In mathematical terms, an each-way bet is a superior proposition to a win-only bet. What’s more, Moon Over Germany has been a pretty consistent performer to date, once allowance for circumstance has been made. 

Recommendation: 1 pt e/w MOON OVER GERMANY at 12/1, 1/5 the odds first 5 places