Rowleyfile Preview: Red Rum Handicap Chase

Given his influence on the sport of horseracing, it is perhaps a little surprising that the legendary Red Rum has only a two-mile handicap chase named in his honour at the Aintree Grand National Meeting.

“Rummy” did more than any other horse to inspire my generation to take an interest in “this great game of ours” through his three wins in the 1970s in the most famous race of all and through his numerous media appearances. There have been better horses but perhaps none so well known by the public in his heyday.

Still, the two-mile handicap chase in question (sponsored this year by Zut Media) is worth £90,000 and is part of a strong supporting card on an opening day on which the ground promises to be testing. It is no easy puzzle to solve, with 16 having been declared.

One thing worth looking at are the trends for the race itself in the last decade, with place impact value and % of rivals beaten the best measures as usual. This is what they say.

Some trends tell you little – such as those weights-carried figures (and BHA mark, which is related and not shown) – and some tell you quite a bit. Firmly in the latter camp is the fact that younger horses have fared best, something which might be missed by those who consider wins only without any consideration of opportunity.

In particular, five-year-olds and six-year-olds have won nearly two and a half times as often as could be expected by chance, have been placed around one and a third times as often as by chance, and have beaten an impressive 62.4% of their rivals in the past 10 years.

There are no five-year-olds in Thursday’s race but there are two six-year-olds, in the form of Tommy Silver and King’s Socks.

A near-miss has performed best in terms of last-time finishing position, while more than one win in the season under review and a good chance on Timeform adjusted ratings should also be regarded as positives.

One thing that seems likely is that the pace for the Red Rum will be a significant factor: Timeform has six horses with Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less (indicating pace-forcers) and predict a “very strong” gallop. Held-up horses may well get a look in.

A look at the form of trainers with runners shows that surprisingly few have been operating well (as judged by %RB in handicaps since February): Jennie Candlish leads the way on 62%, while Harry Fry, Dr Richard Newland and Tom George bring up the rear.

Putting this all together, I priced the race up and had three runners ahead of their rivals: those two six-year-olds plus Theinval. King’s Socks and Theinval are disputing favouritism in the early betting, not that surprisingly, but from a punting point of view Tommy Silver – who is available at double-figure odds – makes more appeal.

Tommy Silver won a maiden chase at Leicester in November in good style then placed behind smart types in Testify (to whom he was conceding weight) at Bangor and Cyrname at Kempton, on both occasions recording strong timefigures.

The handicapper has put him in here off a mark of 144, but that and maybe a bit more besides, could be justified on bits of his form. He shaped as if in good heart when second in a Jumpers’ Bumper at Kempton last time. I would have him around 7/1 for this.

The aforementioned King’s Socks certainly has an appealing profile, having shaped well in two runs over fences since coming from France, but that looks to be fully factored into his price. Theinval has a solid chance of getting placed and figures here off the same mark as when fourth of 22 at Cheltenham.

How best to bet the selection is not quite so clear. If all the declared runners take part then four places at a quarter the win odds make this a good each-way opportunity: the win book was around 120% at early prices but the place book was only 93%. If there are withdrawals, then each-way becomes less appealing but is still similar mathematically to a win-only bet.

On balance, an each-way bet looks the way to go, with Tommy Silver having made the first three in all his starts over larger obstacles to date. Fingers crossed for a full field and for the right result.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way TOMMY SILVER at 11/1, ¼ the win odds first 4 places