Rowleyfile Preview: Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle

‘Tis the season to be jolly, as we are incessantly reminded at this time of year, though whether that is best achieved by backing “jollies” (favourites, in racing parlance) is not so clear.

What is apparent, is that the bookmakers collectively have been more generous than usual in pricing up Saturday’s big pre-Christmas handicap hurdle at Ascot, without quite going the whole hog and donning Santa suits.

Seventeen declared runners makes for four places and an inviting each-way proposition. The win book at best early prices comes in at 117% (you would need to stake £117 in proportion to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100 come what may), but the place book at one quarter those win odds is just 93%.

That means you could back every horse for a place and guarantee a profit, if only fixed-odds bookmakers took place-only bets (they don’t). Nonetheless, a win and place bet is close to break-even and superior to a win bet alone in mathematical terms. Whatever you end up backing, bear that in mind.

Which horse should carry our each-way bet in this race is a far trickier question to answer. Let’s have a look at what the trends tell us over the last nine runnings (there was no race in 2009 and 2010, and there was a dead-heat in 2015). “Place impact value” and “% of rivals beaten” remain the best measures.

There is not a lot in those age-group figures, though six-year-olds have had a positive performance judged by all measures. Horses running off lower handicap marks have outperformed those running off higher, and last-time winners have done quite well. Lengthy absences have not been good news over the years, though the sample sizes are quite small in that area.

Turning to the specifics of the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle itself, you might instinctively be looking for staying types for a race at Ascot on soft ground, but there are a couple of reasons to think twice.

Firstly, Ascot’s “two mile” hurdle course is nearly half a furlong short of the minimum (known for some time but finally confirmed by the jumps course re-measurement a couple of years back). Secondly, there is a surprising dearth of pace-forcers in Saturday’s race: only one horse has a Timeform EPF of less than 2.4, and that one – Evening Hush – is not in great form.

Evening Hush is trained by Evan Williams, who has a far likelier type for the race in Silver Streak, a horse for whom a relative test of speed may be crucial.

A son of Dark Angel, Silver Streak raced only at up to a mile on the Flat, though one suspects that will change. He has done much better over jumps, winning three of his last four, and was very impressive in a Limited Handicap at Chepstow last time, getting messed about but still cruising through the race before sprinting clear on the run-in.

That was off a mark of 122, and Silver Streak gets to go off 130 here. It did not look as if an extra 8 lb would have stopped him at Chepstow, though he is certainly now against stronger opposition. Promising conditional Mitchell Bastyan takes weight off again, though it is 5 lb this time rather than the 7 lb at Chepstow.

Silver Streak looks to have a good chance of getting involved off a light weight and is probably over-priced, though Charli Parcs (if not necessarily any others) deserves to be shorter than him in the market.

That is indeed the case with a gelding who was one of the best juvenile hurdlers of last season, and the fact that he came up short against High Bridge at Newbury on his only recent start should not be held against him as he might have won but for a blunder at the last.

What should be held against Charli Parcs, however, is just how short he is in the betting. Odds of 5/1 and 11/2 are not too bad, but 7/2 and 4/1 – as he is in a few places – over-estimates his chance in my book.

The likes of Charli Parcs, Elgin and Divin Bere could prove lively Champion Hurdle outsiders in due course, but this race does not have the kind of strength in depth that might be expected overall. Even if they are, they may do well to concede significant weight to the Silver Streak that we saw at Chepstow.

Side with the upwardly mobile grey and start dreaming of a near-white pre-Christmas.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way SILVER STREAK at 10/1, ¼ odds first four places

Click here to read Adam Houghton's Long Walk Hurdle preview