Rowleyfile Preview: Qatar Stewards’ Cup 2016

It may be “only” a handicap, but the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood has quite a roll of honour, especially if you go back a few years.

Depending on your vintage, winners like Borderlescott (2006), Patavellian (2003), Lochsong (1992), Petong (1984) and, last but by no means least, Soba (1982) are likely to be among the milestones by which you have measured some of your racing summers. Maybe you were lucky enough to back some of them, too!

Winning the race has never been easy, and picking the winner of the race is likewise. It is now reportedly the richest Flat handicap in Europe, with £250,000 added, and looks as tough as ever.

Twenty-eight runners have been declared for Saturday’s race, and it is worth turning to a few trends to help us to get into the correct mindset, if nothing else.

As usual, the following extracts take the last 10 editions of the race and measure performance by win, first-four place, impact values for both those, and % of rivals beaten. The “1^st-4 IV” (places compared to chance) and “% RB” are the most meaningful measures, with higher better.

The message is that the figures for four-year-olds are quite good, as are those for horses drawn middle-to-high (though more of that anon) and, especially, for horses which finished close up without necessarily winning on their most recent appearances. A lay-off of more than two months has been a negative as judged by % RB, but that sample is pretty small.

The draw is not usually an over-riding factor on a straight and unbiased track, but draw and pace together can be. Timeform predicts a “strongly contested” pace – not the greatest of surprises – and Early Position Figures point to the strongest early pace coming from stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12 and 19.

Somewhat oddly, the quintet of four-year-olds are all drawn 17 or higher, and I would suggest the majority of the most interesting horses are drawn in the top half also.

Incidentally, an analysis of BHA marks revealed little of interest. Horses running off less than 97 have fared poorly, but the lowest mark this year is 97 (seemingly down to an increase in quality and not a sudden inflation in ratings).

Against this backdrop, I priced up the whole race. Dancing Star and Orion’s Bow should be the first two favourites (probably in that order) in my book, and indeed they are. In fact, I could not find anything close up in the betting which was not fairly or under-priced against my tissue.

But there is a horse at a slightly bigger price that I am prepared to give a chance to: one of the aforementioned four-year-olds but a horse who has a disappointing last-time effort and a possibly problematical draw to overcome.

Spring Loaded is his name, and any of you who follow all-weather racing will remember him as a gelding who seemed well ahead of his mark when winning four on the bounce at Wolverhampton, Lingfield (twice) and Kempton early this year. Any of you who follow sectionals will know that some of the speed he was showing was more what you would expect of a listed or Group 3 horse than one running in ordinary handicaps.

It is possible that Spring Loaded is better on all-weather than turf, but he won at Windsor late in 2015, and it is worth checking how he shaped in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot two starts ago before drawing that conclusion. He travelled really well in rear that day and made good headway before his effort flattened out near the end on what was his first start for three months, still finishing seventh in a big field.

Spring Loaded has run since, in the Scurry Handicap at the Curragh, and performed poorly, never looking like getting into it. There is no obvious explanation as to why he ran as he did that day, though he wouldn’t be the only horse to react poorly to a journey abroad.

As it is, Spring Loaded is now only 4 lb higher than when winning well at Kempton in March, is 1 lb lower than for that promising Wokingham run and should be fresher than most in this field. It could also be considered a definite positive that he has Frankie Dettori on his back for the first time.

Dettori will have to finesse things on a hold-up horse from stall 27 of 28, but he has the right material if Spring Loaded’s abortive Irish venture can be forgiven.

As usual, how you bet is important and not just what you bet. Big-field handicaps tend not to be good win-only betting mediums, but they are better each-way propositions, especially if, as is the case here, some bookmakers are paying five places.

That is the angle of attack to adopt. All we need now is some luck, but 25/1 is a big enough price to compensate.

Recommendation: 1 pt each-way SPRING LOADED at 25/1, ¼ the odds FIVE places